Gordhan has passed his first test - serious challenges remain
Minister Gordhan has passed his first test, and there are a number of positive initiatives in the MTBPS. These include DA initiatives such as:
- Wage Subsidies to lower the cost of employment
- Opportunity Vouchers to give young South Africans access to work and skills development
- Accelerated Exchange Control Liberalisation
The Minister also referred favourably to openness to trade, Export Processing Zones, and tax incentives to stimulate job creation, also DA proposals.
This budget shows that the Global Financial Crisis has had a much worse effect on our economy than anyone previously thought. Unlike most other emerging markets, we entered the crisis extremely vulnerable with low savings rates, high inflation and a large current account deficit. Structural rigidities in our economy generally, and specifically in our labour market, worsened the impact once the crisis hit. This is a clear indictment of the ANC's micro-economic management of our economy; the Minister's admission in this regard is the first step towards much-needed reform.
These weaknesses have filtered into our fiscus, where:
- The budget deficit has doubled from February's estimate, to a massive 7.6% of GDP. This is completely out of line with other emerging markets and similar to deficit levels in rich countries that have more resources to cope with higher debt levels;
- The tax shortfall is R70bn - even while government expenditure has risen to more than 35%. This urgently needs to come down to below 30%;
- GDP growth is -1,9%, much worse than the rest of Africa which is experiencing positive growth. We are now a drag on the continent;
- Government debt as a % of GDP is 30% now but will rise to 40% in 2012. It hasn't been at these alarming levels since immediately after Apartheid.
- State debt costs will increase by 18% a year over the next three years.
The DA welcomes the announcement that transfers to State Owned Entities (SOEs) must be trimmed, but there are number of items on which the minister's hand was forced due to a combination of bad judgment, poor management and incompetence. These include: