NEWS & ANALYSIS

Opinion turning against Mbeki - poll

Jacob Zuma far outpacing incumbent in support among urban blacks

JOHANNESBURG - A recent poll of voters in the metropolitan areas suggests that the popular mood is turning against President Thabo Mbeki and his efforts to extend his tenure in power.

The survey, by TNS Research Surveys, was conducted in September and two-thousand adult South Africans were interviewed.

The survey reported a fairly drastic decline in Mbeki's approval rating. 39,6% of the total sample, and 53,3% of black respondents, thought that he was doing a good job as president. (See table 1) In June this year these figures were 54% and 65% respectively.

This survey was conducted shortly after Mbeki sacked the deputy minister of health, Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, but before he got rid of Vusi Pikoli. According to this series of polls Mbeki's approval ratings reached their all time low (of 31%) in 2001 shortly after the police were used to "investigate" potential rivals of his in the ANC.

Mbeki's current approval rating, which remains positive overall among black respondents, fails to translate in any meaningful way into support for his continuation in office. Only 8% of black adults polled (and 6% of the sample overall) said they would like to see him stay on for a third term as state president. By contrast 39% of black respondents said they would like Jacob Zuma to be the next president. (See table 2.)

Zuma continues to polarise opinion. 48% of the sample (and 33% of black respondents) agreed with the statement that "If Jacob Zuma becomes President in 2009 it will bring disaster to South Africa." 36% of the sample disagreed, and 16% said they did not know.

Table 1: Do you think president Mbeki is doing a good job?
  Black White Coloured Indian Total Non-black
Yes 671 54 39 28 792 121
 % 53.3% 14.0% 16.3% 24.3% 39.6% 16.4%
No 411 226 159 73 869 458
 % 32.6% 58.7% 66.3% 63.5% 43.5% 61.9%
Don't know 178 105 42 14 339 161
 % 14.1% 27.3% 17.5% 12.2% 17.0% 21.8%
Total 1260 385 240 115 2000 740

 

Table 2: Expectations of, and preferences for, the next president
% Who do you think will succeed President Mbeki? Who would you like to succeed President Mbeki?
Jacob Zuma 27 26
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka 10 9
A third term for Thabo Mbeki 8 6
Cyril Ramaphosa 7 8
Tokyo Sexwale 6 6
Helen Zille 4 6
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma 3 2
Trevor Manuel 2 3
Patricia de Lille 2 2
Tony Leon 2 3
Others 5 5
Don’t know 26 23
September 2007 survey of urban voters – TNS Research Surveys