A reference to the "final countdown" implies that something has gone astray in the inner workings of democracy and that some re-thinking and rebuilding has become necessary. A final observation of the South African society up to 2020 can hardly be provided at this stage. However, it is possible to identify the driving forces in society that will impact on the nature of the process over the next few years.
This report is a continuation of the previous two issues. The facts and arguments presented will not be repeated in the current issue; however, the relevant conclusions from the reports will be incorporated as platform for future analysis - up to 2020.
The year 2020 as future point of reference is not cast in stone. It may, however, serve as a valuable sign along the road to the future. Since 1994 the political dispensation in South Africa has seen a surge of political and governing activities. Although the political activities may still enjoy a high profile of activity by 2012, the governing capability has definitely been in decline since 2005. The ousting of Mbeki and deployment of Zuma more or less provided the turning point.
The current dynamics of the present political dispensation cannot continue indefinitely. The destructive forces are too strong. The coming years from 2012 to 2020 are already producing early evidence that the current political dispensation will be replaced by something new. What the future will deliver no one knows; right now one is planning for the unknown!
What is clear at present is that a major destabilising shift has occurred within the inner workings of democracy - the essence of statehood. The 1994 election produced a very close interaction between government and governed on the basis of a "free and fair election". The overwhelming numerical support of the ANC instigated a profile of enormous political power - based on voting power - and an expected perception, by the politicians and population, of enormous governing delivery.
What renders the coming years different from the previous phase, is the reality that the ANC still enjoys dominant political support and retains power through free and fair elections. However, governing delivery has become the major problem. The ANC profile at present is one of political power, without governing capabilities.
This in fact implies systemic decay and even failure. Society becomes internally abnormal. This is expected to continue up to 2020. The essence of statehood has been changed and the always very sensitive relation between government and governed has been altered. This is the one critical issue no one ever expected; the drifting apart of government and governed - the ANC and the population!
This process is not driven by a lack of voter support - free and fair elections are expected to continue - but lack of capabilities. The latter cannot be fixed by a general election or an appeal on the constitution to a high court. It has become a dynamics outside parliament and the political process. This is what makes the dynamics of society up to 2020 so difficult. The protective comfort of the current political dispensation - a sound majority government within the embrace of the constitution - can no longer support the population.
The political and ideological centralising forces that always pulled society closer to the ANC after the 1994 election, have been gradually replaced by a centrifugal force - new, external forces pushing society away from the ANC.
Dr Jan du Plessis is Virtual Editor and Publisher of Intersearch. This is an edited extract from the Intersearch Management Briefing for October 2012. Dr Du Plessis can be contacted at [email protected]
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