Protests in Brazil Result from Progress
In his latest column in Business Day, Tony Leon reluctantly gnaws on a slice of humble pie regarding the progress made by Brazil during the past two decades. He posits that the riots currently taking place throughout the country reveal that enthusiastic interpretations about the country's development were too optimistic. Essentially, he argues that we were wrong about Brazil.
Contrary to Leon's argument that the current riots are a reflection of insufficient progress, I would like to posit that the unrest is taking place precisely because Brazil has made such spectacular progress.
Instead of asserting that the overwhelming mountain of data about Brazil's development is somehow wrong, let us start with the assumption that the evidence which Leon himself cites is correct. Most important amongst this is the fact that Brazil's mixture of prudent macroeconomic policies and progressive social policies has reduced the poverty rate from 35% in 2001 to 21% by 2009.
During the same period, the Gini measure of inequality fell from 59 to 54, while Brazil currently has an unemployment rate of only 5.7%. This is one of the lowest figures in the world; lower indeed than in the United States, Canada and almost all of Europe. Leon perhaps somewhat underestimates the scale of overall poverty reduction, as the latest figures indicate that more than 40 million Brazilians have escaped from poverty during the past decade.
The result of all of this has been an exponential increase in the size of the middle class in Brazil. Indeed, for the first time in the country's history, a majority of Brazilians are now officially considered to be part of the middle class. Accompanying the rapid ascent of 40 million people into the middle class has been an increase in something else: their expectations. And it is the government's failure to reach these heightened expectations which are the root cause of the current protests.
While many aspects related to the wave of protest movements that emerged in the wake of the ‘Arab Spring' are still only poorly understood, a defining feature has been the leading role taken by the middle class in countries ranging from Egypt to Turkey and Brazil. In the case of Brazil, the protests were triggered by a proposed bus fare hike, but the agenda of the protestors quickly grew to include gripes about corruption and poor service delivery.
None of these problems are novelties in Brazil; they are almost legendary and have been around for centuries. But during earlier periods the state could rely on the passivity of millions of deeply impoverished people fighting hunger and trying to stay alive on a daily basis - with little ability or appetite left to riot against a corrupt and incompetent state apparatus.
But no longer. Most of these people have now ascended into the lower middle class. With their basic survival needs being met, they have turned their attention towards issues such as corruption, education and healthcare. And they are disillusioned with the bleak picture that emerges. It is this disillusionment which has fuelled the protests. People now expect more than just survival; they expect a reduction in corruption, lower taxes, better education and affordable healthcare. But they are getting none of these.
The results have been plain to see. It is no coincidence that the protests erupted during the Confederations Cup football tournament and as the country gears up (read: spends billions of reais) to host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games. In an environment where their expectations regarding corruption and service delivery are not being met, newly middle class Brazilians are outraged by the government's ability to spend so much money on these mega-events.
It is interesting to note the glaring contrast with South Africa in this regard. There was almost no resistance to the government's exorbitant spending in preparation for the 2010 World Cup, and this is almost certainly explained by the fact that most South Africans are still part of the underclass - fighting to survive on a daily basis. While South Africans are stuck in a situation of chronically low expectations, Brazilian social mobility has resulted in a huge middle class with rising expectations. The lack of middle class protest against mega-events in South Africa compared to its proliferation in Brazil actually reveals just how devastatingly far South Africa has fallen behind its erstwhile BRICS counterpart.
I would thus like to recommend that Mr Leon put that slice of humble pie back in the fridge. It would be much more appropriate to mix himself a caipirinha and toast Brazil's spectacular success in creating a massive, vibrant and politically aware middle class, while also hoping that the next phase of the country's development - meeting the expectations of that new middle class - will be just as successful as the previous.
Leon Schreiber is a South African PhD student in Political Science at the Freie Universität Berlin in Germany. The views expressed are his own. This article first appeared on his blog at http://theschreiberei.wordpress.com/. He can be followed on Twitter here.
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