NDZ’s Cabinet appointment may facilitate Zuma’s early exit, but not in the way you might expect
Becoming an MP will certainly not harm Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s prospects to become the next President of the ANC come December, but there is a significant chance her appointment to Parliament will have a negligible impact on her campaign. She may still be positioned to facilitate President Zuma’s early exit from government, though, but in a manner somewhat different from what is being publicly assumed at present.
Dlamini-Zuma’s campaign is struggling. Polls of ANC members peg her support at about half that of her rival, Deputy President Cyril Ramphosa. Her biggest drawback is being perceived as President Zuma’s proxy. Preferences within the ANC have also swung in favour of more rational policy foundations for key issues like black empowerment and land reform. Her white monopoly capital paradigm has failed to gain traction as a result.
Her campaigning style has been derided and, justifiably or not, media coverage has cloaked her efforts in an air of officiousness. Also, though she attempts to trade on it, her stint as AU Commissioner as not delivered the necessary political dividends vis-à-vis the powerful precedent of the Deputy President of the ANC succeeding the President of the organisation.
A Parliamentary placement for Dlamini-Zuma is possible, but could be futile for her succession prospects. No rules would have to be bent, as there is more than one vacancy in the ANC caucus to fill and she is certainly very competent to do so. It could also be a prelude to a Cabinet appointment: deputy ministerial vacancies in Trade and Industry and Higher Education and Training could justify a reshuffle, and the President has also already used both the extra-Parliamentary appointments to Cabinet allowed by the Constitution.
However, the mooted strategy of replacing Zuma opponent and Higher Education and Training Minister Blade Nzimande with Dlamini-Zuma to capitalise on a rumoured free higher education announcement would have limits in terms of what it could achieve: even if any announcements met with their expectations, the #FeesMustFall movement has disintegrated too much to mobilise support with which to reward her campaign.