POLITICS

Zuma's support in decline - TNS

President's approval rating at 62% among black metro adults, 45% overall

President Zuma's approval level in metro areas shows a slow decline

In 2009, President Zuma's approval levels were good, averaging in the mid-fifties.  After a year of volatility during 2010, President Zuma's approval level for September 2011 shows a slow decline - 45% of metro adults approve of the way the President is doing his job. This is according to a survey released today by TNS, South Africa's leading marketing and social insights company, which has been tracking approval levels of the incumbent President for many years.  The studies are each conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

The President's approval levels showed considerable volatility during 2010, dropping to 43% in February of that year from an end-2009 high of 58% - the best reading of his tenure so far.  May showed a partial recovery but the September figures showed a sharp decline with some recovery in November to 49%, a figure maintained in the first reading for 2011 and staying essentially the same at 48% for March 2011.  However, the September figure shows a drop to 45% with the net positive reading dropping to just 4%. 

%

April 2009

June 2009

Sept 2009

Nov 2009

Feb 2010

May 2010

Sept 2010

Nov 2010

Feb 2011

Mar 2011

Sept 2011

Approve

52

57

53

58

43

51

42

49

49

48

45

Disapprove

29

13

19

23

41

33

44

34

35

38

41

Don't know

19

31

28

19

17

16

15

17

16

14

14

Net positives*

+23

+44

+34

35

+2

+18

-2

+15

+14

+10

+4

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

The March study was conducted in the first two weeks of March 2011, at the start of the local government elections campaigning. The latest reading was conducted between 25 August and 12 September.  This time period coincides with the early stages of Julius Malema's disciplinary hearing, the announcement of Justice Moegeng Moegeng as Mr Zuma's nominee for Chief Justice but was prior to the announcement of an enquiry into the arms deal.

Who is more or less positive?

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race.  This is best illustrated in the following table:

%

Blacks  2009

Blacks 2010

Blacks 2011

Whites 2009

Whites 2010

Whites 2011

Apr

Jun

Sept

Nov

Feb

May

Sep

Nov

Feb

Mar

Sept

Apr

Jun

Sept

Nov

Feb

May

Sept

Nov

Feb

Mar

Sept

Approve

73

75

67

75

58

67

54

62

63

62

62

16

24

29

22

17

19

17

25

22

20

21

Dis-approve

9

4

9

11

27

18

33

22

22

24

26

64

36

43

45

64

60

60

54

60

62

64

Don't know

17

21

24

14

15

15

13

16

15

13

12

21

40

28

32

19

21

23

21

18

18

15

Net positives*

+64

+71

+58

+64

+29

+49

+19

+40

+38

+38

+36

-48

-12

-14

-23

-47

-41

-43

-29

-38

-42

-43

 

%

Coloureds 2009

Coloureds 2010

Coloureds 2011

Indians/Asians 2009

Indians/Asians 2010

Indians/Asians 2011

Apr

Jun

Sept

Nov

Feb

May

Sept

Nov

Feb

Mar

Sept

Apr

Jun

Sep

Nov

Feb

May

Sep

Nov

Feb

Mar

Sept

Approve

11

23

31

38

15

23

27

26

25

25

15

25

35

38

29

18

43

17

26

36

27

10

Dis-approve

68

19

26

35

66

59

60

55

59

63

69

49

23

35

50

65

48

69

62

45

60

75

Don't know

21

58

43

27

18

19

13

19

17

13

16

26

43

27

21

17

9

14

12

19

13

16

Net positives*

-57

+4

+5

+3

-51

-36

-33

-29

-34

-38

-54

-24

+12

+3

-21

-47

-5

-52

-36

-9

-33

-65

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

 

  • The September 2011 reading for blacks is effectively unchanged.
  • The figures for whites are also unchanged.
  • For coloureds, sentiment has shifted strongly more negatively.
  • For Indians/Asians, there is more volatility but the latest reading is by far the poorest recorded during Mr Zuma's tenure.

 

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings.  These are outlined below for 2010 and for 2011:

 

 

 

2010

2011

 

 

 

Feb

May

Sept

Nov

Feb

Mar

Sept

Gauteng

 

 

47

57

49

56

56

55

51

 

Johannesburg and environs

 

50

60

50

59

58

58

52

 

 

Johannesburg excl Soweto

48

54

53

57

58

57

45

 

 

East Rand

54

64

53

68

57

59

57

 

 

West Rand

47

62

55

47

47

61

53

 

 

Soweto

50

70

59

56

71

66

64

 

 

Vaal Triangle/South Rand

49

47

40

48

57

48

42

 

 

Pretoria

35

45

37

45

49

45

46

Cape Town

 

 

23

24

23

27

22

18

22

Durban

 

 

49

60

41

52

55

55

48

Eastern Cape

 

 

39

51

34

40

43

40

48

 

Port Elizabeth

 

36

42

39

43

44

38

45

 

East London

 

47

71

24

35

40

45

53

Bloemfontein

 

 

48

65

40

60

59

73

48

Over the year, the drop in Gauteng occurs in most areas.  Durban shows a notable drop, linked to the very poor Indian/Asian results, whilst the Eastern cape shows some improvement.   Bloemfontein shows a drop.  Overall, Gauteng, along with Durban, Bloemfontein and the Eastern Cape have the highest approval levels.  Cape Town has by far the poorest figures.

Other notable differences

In terms of age group, people aged 18 to 34 years are the most positive at 52% (51% in March) whilst those aged 60 years and more are the least positive at 30% (well down from the 40% of March).   In terms of language group, the most positive are those whose home language is isiZulu at 66% (69%in March) and Tswana speakers (65%).  Of the black language groups, those whose home language is Sotho have the lowest approval level at 53%.

Our take out

President Zuma's approval levels in metro areas, as measured in September, show a long slow decline overall since the highs of November 2009.  The declines in recent months have been more marked amongst coloureds and Indians/Asians.

Technical note

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample.  The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas.  The studies were conducted by TNS South Africans part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS.

Statement issued by Neil Higgs, Senior Advisor and Head: Innovation, TNS South Africa, October 3 2011

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