Zimbabwe: The grim reaper approaches

In the past two weeks the Zimbabwe economy has seen two really significant developments. The first is the total collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar and the second is the sharp deterioration in basic food supplies.

On Tuesday a local banker told me that the cost of money transactions in Zimbabwe dollars now exceeded the value of their transactions. Simply put that means if you are trading or shifting money in the form of the Zimbabwe domestic currency, you will be losing money even if you are charging interest and other charges related to the transactions that are involved.

So business here is now only possible if you work in a hard currency - the Rand or the US Dollar. This creates two other problems - how to obtain the hard currency in the first place and then, once you have the money, to use it without breaking the law which still prohibits such transactions.

For a small fortune you can secure a licence to operate in hard currency but even then the operating conditions are nearly impossible. So the reality is that most businesses have closed their doors or are now operating on a care and maintenance basis until better days - whenever that will be.

In the rural areas the position is even worse and people are now operating a barter economy or relying on the small remittances that come in from relatives in the Diaspora. If you cannot use either system, you are facing starvation.

On the food front the situation has deteriorated sharply in the past month. Humanitarian agencies have full warehouses but cannot get the food to the people who need it. The reasons are that the agencies cannot access cash for their operations - hard currency transactions are still illegal and the cash withdrawal limits and other restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank are making local payments impossible - they cannot pay for hotels or staff salaries and cannot pay transporters to take the food to where it is needed.

But it goes beyond this, at the start of the year it was estimated that we needed 1,8 million tonnes of maize. Of this total the humanitarian agencies said they would try to supply 400 000 tonnes. The Zimbabwe government estimated maize production at 600 000 tonnes and that left a shortfall of 800 000 tonnes for importation.

So far all we can find evidence of are contracts for a total of 175 000 tonnes and even this meagre import programme seems to have spluttered to a halt. That leaves a total shortfall of 625 000 tonnes - possibly 800 000 tonnes because it is most unlikely that local production was 600 000 tonnes - most commentators say 425 000 tonnes.

This means that the shortfall is still probably 50 per cent of consumption and we still have 5 months to go to the end of the forecast supply period (April 2008 to March 2009). In October the donors fed 2 million people at the level of 15 kilograms of cereals a month per capita. In November they expect to go to 3,5 million people at a reduced rate of 10 kilos of cereals per capita. They plan to go to 5,5 million in January 2009 but at present they do not have the money or the supplies for that programme.

Remember that this is just the donor community completing what they committed themselves to at the start of the year and does not in any way alleviate the shortage in commercial supplies from the GMB. Therefore we can deduct from this in the absence of any information from official sources that food supplies are now down to critical levels.

If this is not addressed and soon, widespread starvation and deaths will be inevitable.

Perhaps the worst aspect of this is that the State has not admitted there is a problem and that they need help. No appeal has been made for help and no response is forthcoming from the authorities who have been approached to help rectify the problems with payments and the need to appeal for resources to help meet the needs in early 2009.

But the crisis goes beyond these basic problems - there is growing evidence that the Reserve Bank has used its power to loot the hard currency accounts in the banking system for its own purposes. This includes the accounts of the UN system and has led to a suspension of future transfers that will affect the tens of thousands of people with HIV/Aids who are on UN funded ARV's.

If that was not bad enough, the Junta is running a programme called 'Champion Farmers'. These are all those individuals in Zanu PF who have access to farming property, to draw on State funded inputs (fuel, seed, fertilizer and chemicals as well as farm equipment) to grow crops this summer. In a rush to take advantage of these offers (partially funded by a grant of R300 million from the South African government) Zanu PF thugs are harassing remaining commercial farmers and driving them off the land.

This whole programme is illegal and has been the subject of a lengthy appeal to the SADC Tribunal in Windhoek. The Tribunal has already ruled in favour of the farmers and is expected to knock the whole land reform exercise down at the end of November. That does not make any impression on these thugs and criminals.

This exercise includes a deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Commissioner of Police. They are taking over farms where the commercial farmers have prepared land and secured some inputs and the new occupiers are then simply picking up where they left off and planting crops on land that does not belong to them using equipment looted from their owners.

All stocks of seed and fertilizer and all agricultural fuel is going to this programme leaving small scale farmers and 700 000 peasant farmers without these essential supplies. The result, tobacco plantings are down 50 per cent and cereal production is likely to fall below the level achieved last year.

So the suffering of the majority continues - ordinary men and women, children and the elderly without food and opportunity (95 per cent of teachers are not at work) and more particularly, without hope. The region has not even announced the date of the SADC/AU summit due in less than 10 days.

Eddie Cross is the MP for Bulawayo South and Policy Coordinator for the MDC. This article first appeared on www.eddiecross.africanherd.com/

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... the Junta is running a programme called 'Champion Farmers'. These are all those individuals in Zanu PF who have access to farming property, to draw on State funded inputs (fuel, seed, fertilizer and chemicals as well as farm equipment) to grow crops this summer. In a rush to take advantage of these offers (partially funded by a grant of R300 million from the South African government) Zanu PF thugs are harassing remaining commercial farmers and driving them off the land."

Eddie Cross

 

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Change needed, now! Really! The SA Government gave Mugabe and his thugs R300 million!!! And there are so many people in our own country in dire straights? And Mugabe and his cronies do NOTHING to stop poverty from spreading in Zim? They are taking the money to line their . .more own pockets! Mbeki and the ANC have a lot to answer for, that is for sure. How many times has Mbeki flown to Zim to "negotiate" there and what was the cost of each of these trips to the SA taxpayer? The ANC has become too strong and arrogant and SA needs a more broad-based government which will truly be accountable to the people. . .less by jaycee on November 02 2008, 22:04 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

ZanuPF - akaGovernment Policy on Track Didymus Mutasa said, right a the start of all this mayhem, that ZanuPF didn't care about the population of Zimbabwe aa a whole, it was only concerned with its 5 million party members. Government Policy is precisely on track. by Zim Exile on November 03 2008, 05:33 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Coup Dare I say it? Time for Civil War, get rid of that DICTATOR!!! by Carl on November 03 2008, 06:52 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

UN Peacekeepers Assassinate BOB Establish a new Govt. Scrap the currency,and get on with it! They have tried all the African "solutions", which have proven to only make things worse, so unless you try a different solution, things will only get worse by Coolio on November 03 2008, 07:29 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Democracy Zimbabweans, particularly the rural population, voted for him. They have only themselves to blame. Ain't democracy grand! by Swazi on November 03 2008, 08:26 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Leave them alone They made their beds , let them lie in it.This is what they fought and murdered for, now you want to take away what little pride they have left. Typical colonialists. Take note South Africa. by Dave on November 03 2008, 08:54 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Zim I agree with Carl.It is time for a civil war.Mugabe needs to be removed . by David on November 03 2008, 09:38 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The wounds of Liberation are still fresh in much of SADC What is happening in Zimbabwe is to agreater extent the creation of Western Sanctions and their effect on a Common in the Street! One wonders How happy Britain and America are! Solutions of more violence will give an excuse for War vets to even go . .more on rampage and ethinically cleance the country of all friends of my enemy. The west is in weak position because they did not give freedom to their colonies on a silver plate! Zimbabwe is an experiment of is to come to much of SADC countries that came to power through chasing their former Masters by means of Armed struggle! Just look around Russia and China on the one hand and theen Britain and Big Brother America and Oil Games in Africa! . .less by mbokodo on November 03 2008, 10:07 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Zim and SA I agree there will be civil war in Zim but there will also be civil war in SA. The ANC have done a really bad job over the last 14 years and the new regime are going to put the final nail in the SA coffin. The ANC seem to be heading along exactly the same . .more path as Zim so SA citizens beware, we are in for a dreadful time. The ANC like Mugabe just do not accept any opposition and are on record as saying they will kill for Zuma and want machine guns. Funny, mbokodo, the blacks can never take responsibility for the demise of resource rich africa, it is always everyone else"s fault. They have to blame someone and never take responsibility, that is what they do. They can steal and be massively corrupt but, no, that is some white man in britain's fault not theirs - amazing people. Buy your gun today. . .less by sad times ahead on November 03 2008, 10:29 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

It's all ok ... Thabo is coming up to get the deal signed again ... Stand away The Western World .... all that can be done has been done, let the East give the Zimbabians a bit of the olde eastern hospitality ....... by Sadsack on November 03 2008, 10:41 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Sick of these Whiners We constantly get bombarded with these stories and I am tired of it. I am all for supporting the people of Zimbabwe if they rise up but if they dont then their suffering is their own doing and I feel nothing. "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from . .more time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - Thomas Jefferson. . .less by Independant Advisor on November 03 2008, 10:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Zim is a product of their own choices. The west should not interfere in Zimbabwe. let the african governments find a solution. It is after all what the Zim people want. They voted for Bob, they supported land redistribution, now please let them be. Same goes for SA with its new socialist . .more Zuma faction. . .less by Pierneef on November 03 2008, 12:32 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Democratic transparency Zimbabwe, and through her, the entire SADIC and AU have proved the truth and correctness of "an African solution to an African problem". This is the essence of democracy and, frankly, I am confused at all the fuss. I regret to say . .more this but it is clear to me that the African patron class has zero respect for humanity; as long as they can dress in fancy clothes, attend meetings all over the world and insist on their dignity, that is all they are concerned with. African governance is a sort of "paint by numbers" excercise with every Tom, D***, and Harry of a black man dressed in smart suit behaving like a 5 year old school child and proudly pointin to their "achievements". I find the whola Zimbabwean affair repulsive; it sickens me to my stomach. And yet the baboons are comfortable with genocide. . .less by Plutarch on November 03 2008, 12:50 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Plutarch you are absolutely spot on It is sickening to see these africans in action. Mugabe must be the most hated man in Africa but the most admired by African leaders. What a tragedy and a shame that so many millions are controlled by so few incompetent horrible human beings but it seems . .more as if blacks are happy with this scenario as they do nothing about it and vote the tyrants in time and again. When Julius Malema and Jacob Zuma take over south africa is going to be a place to avoid at all cost. . .less by London on November 03 2008, 13:27 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Eish....we broke the country, geeve us anotha one....geeve us anotha one eish.............it is the fault of that dog blair by blacks rule!! on November 03 2008, 13:59 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Curious "This exercise includes a deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank and the Commissioner of Police. They are taking over farms where the commercial farmers have prepared land and secured some inputs and the new occupiers are then simply picking up where they . .more left off and planting crops on land that does not belong to them using equipment looted from their owners. " Now why would they do this? The rogue thugs have no ability to tend the crop let alone bring in the harvest when it is ripe. As for transporting it to depots, packaging it and marketing it this is light years beyond their capability. And the South africans sit on the side-lines watching all this and doing nothing. Truly, Africans are peas in a pod. If God was more cynical and less humorous than He is He would implant a health warning on the brow of all Africans . .less by Cassandra on November 03 2008, 15:02 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Let Obama show the way for TRUE non racialism. When a black man shows leadership and charisma, people of all ethnic backgrounds vote for him - look at what is happening in the US. May this herald an era where skin colour is a totally irrelevant factor when it comes to running a country. If this is the . .more case in the US, then let it also be the case in Africa. If no black man has the skill or ability to run an African country, then let's find a competent white skinned leader. Helen Zille is the obvious candidate for SA. I hereby nominate Eddie Cross for Zimbabwe's president. . .less by Sad Days on November 03 2008, 15:44 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Cassandra, I am told that God is Black and She loves us! Whatever She is, defiintely has a sense of hunour by Dave on November 03 2008, 15:59 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Wishful Thinking! Sad Days, I second Eddie Cross for Zim's president - a stalwart with the good of ALL Zimbabweans at heart - and Zille for South Africa of course - for the same principle! by Zim Exile on November 03 2008, 16:25 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Assassinate him Its pretty clear now that the only route to go in resolving the Zimbabwe issue is assassination. African leaders have proved again and again that they just do not have what it takes to solve this problem (if indeed they see it as a problem). I get the . .more feeling they pretend to be concerned about it because the wicked West demands that something be done..or no handouts. A severe example needs to be set to stop this uncivilised nonsense that we see all the time on this continent. Take Bob out and have Nuremberg style trials and sentence all those complicit to death. This will in no way compare to the amount of people who have died through state sponsored violence and starvation in Zim so far. Once this is done the West will step in with their handouts and Zimbabwe can start to build again. Unless severe punishment is dealt out ...absolutely no lessons will have been learned from this. I won't hold my breath though. . .less by Airwolf on November 03 2008, 16:43 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Tough luck... Really sorry to say, but this unfolding (unfolded?) drama is no longer of any interest to me. It is a situation of their own making and RSA and the west have more than enough of their own issues and problems to contend with. There will be even less . .more charitable aid or even goodwill going to Zim next year and almost no will to assist with a solution or settlement of the problems. Zim is a bywater in a turbulent globe and has fallen to a minor newsworthy event. . .less by Joe on November 03 2008, 17:01 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

It takes two to tango Many forces were at work in Zim/Rhodesia. Cold W\ar/British socialists/International sanctions. Good against evil. Read the books of Peter Stiff and other ex-Rhodesians. The blacks and whites where caught up between higher forces. By no means it was all . .more their fault. You should distinguish between the kraal black who just wanted to go on with his life and the terrorists who coeerced him into voting the wrong party.Any kraal black will vote for Mugabe if his and his childrens life is at risk. . .less by Jingle-dancer on November 04 2008, 09:59 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Pray We need to pray for the people that they turn from their sins accept the sacrifice Jesus made for them and pray for God to heal their land. Repentance is the only thing that will bring about the change that is needed. Cry the beloved country - - - . .more all who are in need make the decision to change NOW . .less by Grey Man on November 04 2008, 10:42 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Grim Reaper Prophetic ? Is Eddie hinting that the Grim Reaper may be coming to collect "the Great Leader" sometime soon ? by Richard on November 06 2008, 08:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

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