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Endgame in Zimbabwe

Lester Venter
07 December 2008

Lester Venter writes on the possibility of Mugabe falling, and the likely aftermath

It is bewildering for a distant observer, such as I am, to read the reports coming from Zimbabwe. For some time, now, they have been saying that unless something drastic is done, the country will collapse.

In a land with, effectively, no currency, where four out of five people don't have work, where half the population is hungry, where there is no legitimate government, where sickness stalks the land unchecked, where the capital is frequently without water and electricity, where an average pay packet can't buy a loaf of bread, where you can be beaten or worse for having the wrong politics and where the right to property has become an ephemera ... what exactly would constitute "collapse"?

As is all-too plain to see, the situation is dire in the land so many remember as one of the best places to feel the welcoming spirit of Africa, despite its history; and remember it as a rich garden that, despite disparities, provided for all. And yes, it seems pointless to wonder how much further it can fall and how it can get any worse.

Yet the story of Zimbabwe is not over. There will be much yet to tell and it is worth asking now what the rest of the story might involve. What happens next?

Forecasting the political future is not only difficult, it's dangerous. That's because it's so easy to be wrong. In fact, it's so easy to be wrong you can pretty much guarantee you will be badly mistaken somewhere along the line, and you can go for a rather embarrassing fall.

So you'd better stand back a bit and give me some room.

Despite the risks, this is a necessary exercise. Anticipating the future is the best way of improving the present. It is only when you stop and think, really stop and think, about all the possible outcomes of present actions that you become able to give these present actions their true weight, and measure their real value.

In order to do it, then, you have to discern in the present the forces that are really driving events forward, separate them from the passing diversions of the day, and imagine how they would evolve. All the while, you must be mindful of the unexpected.

The first apparent driver of Zimbabwean events is the one everyone is looking at right now - the talks between the government and the opposition about a new government. It's a false indicator of the future, it's a hi-jacking of hope, and it should be discarded right away.

The talks are never going to produce anything, certainly not anything good, and assuredly nothing that will change Zimbabwe's unhappy future to a more hopeful one. If the talks had any potential to do that, they would have done so already. Rather, the stalled and stalling nature of the talks - in fact, the entire current political process - is a message that is crying to make itself heard; and it's amazing that so few seem to hear it. The message is: this is a dead end.

The decisive factor in the talks is Mugabe. The talking is in essence about what Mr Mugabe will give, and will not give. He is the maker and the breaker. At this stage, anyone who thinks that Mr Mugabe needs more time to make his intentions clearer ... or time to see the error of his ways .. or to bend to the counsel being offered from without ... is someone who is simply not capable of reading the record correctly.

As an exercise, imagine that Mugabe responds to some pressure we have not seen until now, or that hasn't worked until now, and the talks succeed in producing a unity government. How much unity can one reasonably expect there to be in such a government? Yes, not much. And how much unity of purpose and action would it not need to give Zimbabwe even the smallest hope of tackling its huge problems?

In fact, were the parties pressured into making it happen it would amount to no more than transferring the terrain of battle from the negotiating rooms to the corridors of power.  The opposition members would spend all their time crab-walking along the passageways, keeping their backs to the wall.

With little doubt, this is a stratagem Mugabe has been holding in reserve, anyway.

All this implies that Mugabe must go. And he will. Mugabe cannot hold on forever. That Mugabe will go - and probably soon - is not the issue. The question is quite how the final dénouement will play itself out.

The forces that will drive Mugabe out can come from either outside Zimbabwe, or within; or a combination of both. This is a statement of the obvious, of course, but it helps one to think about forthcoming events.

There is now a mounting clamour for Mugabe's departure. It is coming from the West; this weekend the Archbishop of York, John Sentamu, called not only for Mugabe's removal but for his prosecution in an international court. Of late, it is coming, too, from some in Africa, like Botswana and Kenya. At the weekend Desmond Tutu, former archbishop of Cape Town, echoed Sentamu's call.

The voices are manifestly louder, more numerous and more insistent than they have been until now. But they will remain just voices. This is, therefore, not a new thing, and Mugabe's obstinacy is not like to melt in the realisation that he is not popular. The situation is way past that.

More meaningful forces are rising within. It must be said in haste, right here, that the long-suffering endurance of the population, and its failure to come out in open revolt is one of the remarkable characteristics of the Zimbabwe affair - and one that is far less studied and discussed than it deserves. This is especially so when one considers the phenomenon against the uprisings that have swept Eastern Europe in the last 20 years.

Nevertheless, something is astir, and has been seen to be so in just recent days. There are sporadic outbreaks of unrest in the streets of the two main cities. There is a common thread that connects all these outbreaks, even though they involve groups as different as doctors and soldiers. The link, of course, is that they all involve people who depend on the state for their living.

The conventional wisdom has been, up to now, that the state is able to dispense enough patrimony to ensure the loyalty of a critical mass of its dependents. But that ability is clearly eroding, and eroding fast. The currency in which people are paid is all but worthless. The banks place stringent limitations on withdrawals, and so salaries languish, slashed in value by several decimal points every day.

It is true, as is frequently pointed out, that those around Mugqabe are sustained by access to foreign exchange and the last resources of the state. But even these are dwindling. When there is no more coin in the realm - local or foreign - the game is up.

The pyramid of patrimony that is constructed from tribal loyalty at its base, the civil service above that, and the power elite above that, in turn, is what sustains Mugabe at its pinnacle. It will soon be too corroded to hold him up any longer.

Mugabe's fall may now be sooner than anyone expects, and it is worth speculating on what will transpire when he is toppled.

It is unlikely that Mugabe will withdraw to a tribal seat, there to live out his years as the venerated father of Zimbabwe's independence. The risk of some form of vengeance or, simply, recompense, for a nation ruined will be too great. Even if a taste for retribution doesn't come from the opposition, which has shown almost superhuman forbearance up to now - it may come at last from a populace whose fear of persecution has lifted, and whose anger, inflamed by hunger and despair, is finally unleashed.

On a formal level it is probably not likely that there will be a prosecution through the courts - although it can't be ruled out - but it is likely that a new government will want to know how much of the foreign-donor money purloined from the central bank can be recovered.

Mugabe will probably retreat into sanctuary offered by one of the many countries that have supported him - just as he has given sanctuary these past years to Mengistu, convicted of genocide by his home courts in Ethiopia. It is a sobering thought that there will probably be many eager for the perceived honour of receiving Mugabe.

The departure of Mugabe will take care of the immediate problem. But to say that Mugabe is the problem is not the same as saying that Morgan Tsvangirai is the solution. True enough, the opposition leader has shown considerable mettle in recent time in the way he has resisted Mugabe's attempts to steamroller his movement. In great measure, though, Tsvangirai has gained stature by default in the unconscious comparison made against his tormentor. In addition, a careful examination of his record shows that steadfastness and great depths of virtuous leadership have not always characterised Tsvangirai.

Even if the very best in leadership were to emerge from Mr Tsvangirai, the lesson of the states destroyed by their capricious, stupid, cruel or evil rulers is that they take decades to rebuild. Uganda, for example, needed almost an entire generation to restore average incomes to what they were when Idi Amin first took power - a period in which the rest of the world had moved on. Similarly, it will take Zimbabwe at least a generation to get back to where it was a generation ago.

So, however the political dice roll from here on, Zimbabwe's prospects are depressing. There is nothing, really, to be done now to change that. Zimbabwe took the wrong turning in history some time back.

Then, not enough people to make a difference looked far enough down the road to see where the unfortunate land would be today. The opportunity to change course was back then. It's gone now.

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The talks are never going to produce anything, certainly not anything good, and assuredly nothing that will change Zimbabwe's unhappy future to a more hopeful one. If the talks had any potential to do that, they would have done so already. Rather, the stalled and stalling nature of the talks - in fact, the entire current political process - is a message that is crying to make itself heard; and it's amazing that so few seem to hear it. The message is: this is a dead end."
Lester Venter
 

Comments

 
 responses to this article

The Talks in Perspective - At Last!
At last we're talking sense. Mugabe must go. Oh, and the depressig prognosis of a generation in reconstruction! How much Mugabe and Mbeki have to answer for.

by Zim Exile on December 08 2008, 05:10
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Mugabe is heading for a violent end
Lester Venter's observation regarding the state of Ziombabwe all point to a violent end for Mugabe. This man is determined to hold onto power until the very end and it is sad that it had to come to this no thanks in a large part to our ex-president. I . .more

by papashengo on December 08 2008, 05:11
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Zim Future
Irespective of takes over the economic situation in Zimbabwe is bound to get worse before it gets better! No miracle solutions in sight!

The west may have to Economically Collonise in order for this Country to get BETTER!

So the end . .more

by Mzondi Ngwira on December 08 2008, 06:48
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Failed diplomacy
This makes for such scary reading because of what it says about the intellectual, political and philosophical shortcomings of South Africa's "leaders". They have failed in the worst possible way and quiet dipomacy is probably the single biggest external . .more

by ack on December 08 2008, 06:56
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Put the whites back in power
...and soon all will be restored, its as easy as that (Mugabes round about trip took only 28 years - boom to bust, and a few 100 thousand dead, typical african)

by Koos on December 08 2008, 07:43
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french revolution 101
Good article Lester.I remain astounded at the Zimbabwean people's fresh outrage at the devastation Mugabe caused to their country. How is it that a whole country allowed such a madman to mess everything up so superbly?It is most certainly not a question . .more

by Zoem on December 08 2008, 07:49
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There is still a long way to go
Think, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola in the 80's and 90's, Burundi, Somalia and many others. Africans are capable of living in chaos and misery worse than Zimbabwe.

by lad on December 08 2008, 07:53
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my suggestion
Let Mr. Mbeki continue with the quiet diplomacy.
He insisted this is the correct way and I see no reason to disagree with him.
Look at what he has achieved with his quiet diplomacy!
If Mr Bush were to have sent in the U.S. military and . .more

by Plutarch on December 08 2008, 08:07
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Mugabe and Zimbabwe is simply African liberation politics taken to its natural conclusion - enough s...

by greykie on December 08 2008, 08:08
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Betting man
I will give odds of 50:1 that there will be no drastic action by an external party on Zimbabwe. We will satisfy our conscience by having meetings, writing letters, threatening and muttering in dark corners about how dreadful Zimbabwe is ..... how the . .more

by Bookmaker .... on December 08 2008, 08:17
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Africa fails Africans yet again
It is the West calling on Africa to react to help its own. When is Africa going to blame the west for doing nothing as it is Africans suffer not the white man. Typical !!!

by ed on December 08 2008, 08:35
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Talk,steal,kill,making babies
That is excatly what African leades do.Talk talk talk talk.But nothing goes futher than there mouths.If they take action it is a lay back action to calm the people on the ground.

If they realy take action it is to kill,to steal,and making more . .more

by Alkie on December 08 2008, 08:44
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"Ehhh, there is no crises in Zimbabwe " - TM
Anycase Thabo my mate, the blood of the latest cholera victims are also on your hands...Africa cannot solve its own problems

by Piet on December 08 2008, 08:48
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Africa
Don't blame Mugabe. Any other would have typically destroyed in less time.

by Photographer on December 08 2008, 08:50
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What is the effect on us in South Africa?
Lester, a thought provoking article. I would however have liked you to go into more detail on how Zimbabwe's demise affects us here in SA or in any other of the thriving neighbours (Botswana, Mozambique). Uganda has been in a process of rebuilding for a . .more

by Ringo on December 08 2008, 09:01
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Being a black african
im deeply dissappointed by the colour of my skin these days, Sadc leaders have made it worse, wish i was yellow.

by Once proud on December 08 2008, 09:08
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Surely the ANC will not let him go down?
The ANC will send the army in to keep Mugabe in power that is my opinion. Anyway Thabo will make sure Bob stays as this is about the only thing he has succeeded in doing over the last 14 years - he has kept Bob in power and obviously agrees with Bob and . .more

by hahaha on December 08 2008, 09:23
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Zimbabwe die of hunger but at least they are free from the shackles of coloniasm.
Leave the liberated Zimbabwe.They are a democracy now. They were overjoyed getting rid of Ian Smith. Wonder were the masses will go if SA should share the same fate? A plane ticket to Australia doesn't come cheap you know. Food aid by the west would be a . .more

by Pi-sant on December 08 2008, 09:26
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mugabe
allegedly had his senior general murdered, killed400000 matabele ,is still lauded at all gatherings of the sadc .in spite of what has and is happening, don't expect any change soon

by dof on December 08 2008, 09:27
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Chaos
@lad
Africans actually seem to relish the chaos, misery, death, destruction and starvation.

by piet on December 08 2008, 09:35
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Watch the movie Black Diamonds to learn how blacks run their countries.
In the movie they talk about TIA which means That Is Africa. Zimbabwe is just a normal event in Africa according to the blacks otherwise they would have done something about it. Look at Mbeki (the man who said HIV does not cause AIDS) I mean here is a guy . .more

by It is in the movies on December 08 2008, 09:40
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The end is nigh...
With ever shrinking resources to pay off for its security, Mugabe's layers of protection are peeling away one by one but now ever faster. Soon he will stand alone with a coterie of dirty henchmen. This lot will find asylum most likely with the ANC, . .more

by mark on December 08 2008, 10:06
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Quiet diplomacy = cowardice
Personally I don't think Mugabe will live to see 2009.

And TBone - our idiot garden gnome - history will judge you harshly.

by Durban Dave on December 08 2008, 10:14
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Six well aimed
Tomahawk missiles will solve the Mugabe problem.

by jake on December 08 2008, 10:23
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Mugabe will hang
About two weeks ago ( I think but two weeks in Zimbabwe can be a long time) I predicted that Mugabe would meet a very stick end within weeks. Think of those images of Mussolini when the Italians toppled him. The more brutal the rule, the more brutal the . .more

by Al on December 08 2008, 10:51
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anyone noticed where the aircraft carrier went?
i can't wait for the first squadron of marines to land........ and we all thought the aircraft carrier was passing by to chase pirates.......!!!

by super duper on December 08 2008, 11:17
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A Free Zim for Christmas?
We are transfixed by this sickening Malthusian end game as political intransigence meets the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse on our northern border. The Zimbabwe situation is a disaster of biblical proportions, where human nature has being tested on every . .more

by mayday on December 08 2008, 11:20
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The International Criminal Court
Thabo Manto and Mugabe should be arrested and carted off to the HAGUE for crimes against HUMANITY!!!!!!!!!

by Rick on December 08 2008, 11:44
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There was once an Eastern European dictator called Nicolae Ceausescu
I was 400km south of Bucharest in Bulgaria on 22 December 1989 when his own military shot him by firing squad. The end is nigh in Zimbabwe and I have a feeling it may end the same way. I doubt external influence will remove Mugabe but, as has happened in . .more

by East European on December 08 2008, 11:45
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Just shut the borders until he and Zanu capitulate !
The stupid must pay ..... unfortunately it will mean many lives lost - but the quicker the better.

by JP on December 08 2008, 12:23
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actually
it was Rumania.
But I must confess I am amazed why the Zimbos dont elect to excercise what I call the Ceaucescu option to deal with Bob and Grace.

by to east European on December 08 2008, 12:33
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African Renaissance
Mr Mbeki promised us a renaissance and, in Zim, we can see the logical endgame of this endeavour.
This, tragically, is what Africa ruled by Africans and for Africans, without the hated white man's influence, looks like.
Hooray for Thabo . .more

by sisonke on December 08 2008, 12:45
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Let Them Suffer
Close the South African borders to the people of Zimbabwe, they deserve what they got. Let the rest of Africa pour pity onto them. Feel sorry for the loss of large numbers of humanity, but they, the people of Zimbabwe refused to fight for change and now . .more

by Ron on December 08 2008, 13:01
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Liberation struggle
is a misnomer. What the Zim and SA liberation struggles have done: destroy functioning systems, thereby enslaving the many, enriching the few. These are frauds pulled on people whipped up into a frenzy by promises that can never be met.

by Bob's done his best on December 08 2008, 13:05
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r.g. mugabe
the whole world is trying to pull the knob out of the end of his country. he cannot come out and he will not go down. r.g. mugabe is a well stuck in knob with priapism.

by jaxon browne on December 08 2008, 13:51
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I would rather like to see Bob hung in front of Parliment
Give the natives a panga and let them vent their fraustartions on Bob and his Generals.
Why should they sit in the Hauge and be feed by those evil white imperialists?

by Bob must be cut up on December 08 2008, 13:58
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ahh ron and how do we send goods and service via rail to the rest of africa
ron, you sir are and idiot and not fit to call yourself a human being....

by shameron on December 08 2008, 14:15
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Ceausescu
Er sorry buddy 400km south of bucharest places you in bulgaria and yes we are talking about a romanian dictator. Anyway this is about Zimbabwe

by East European on December 08 2008, 14:15
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east european
yes, it is about zimbabwe and r.g. mugabe is still a knob

by jaxon browne on December 08 2008, 14:40
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3 decades to destroy a country. RSA 14 years and counting!!
It is the African way

by OMG on December 08 2008, 14:54
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Almost right Lester Venter.
Zimbabwe is beyond repair.
Whoever gives sanctuary to Mugabe are idiots and I hope it is not S.A. because there is no way anyone can make a good deal with that man. They can call him brother as much as they like but the only justice would be the . .more

by charlie on December 08 2008, 14:55
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Goodbye Robert
Mugabe will probably get taken out members of his own security forces. After all, they are getting paid with the same worthless currency and there surely are limits to their brand of dumb loyalty.

by Richard on December 08 2008, 15:42
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Robert
Never.

by ANC on December 08 2008, 16:08
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Jail Him Yesterday! The excuse for a man does not undertand diplomacy
Robert Mugabe should have been in jail a long time ago! He has damaged the social fabric of the Zimbabwean Nation. Let him rot in jail for life, what diplomacy if it is not understood by the idiot. Throw away the key.

by Exhausted on December 08 2008, 16:09
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@ hahaha
The SANDF is incapable of overthrowing Mugabe - they would get their butts kicked. Our army could not invade Lesotho let alone Zimbabwe. Even in current disarray the Zim army would chase the SANDF into the Limpopo where they would peg from . .more

by HeeHee on December 08 2008, 16:21
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Time, time, time!!!
I think that you guys are all wrong. If you are emaciated, you are unable to protest and fight back. "Bad Mad Bob" has plenty of resources which in effect represents his personal ill gotten gains from the DRC and other nearby countries, all with the . .more

by Sipho on December 08 2008, 16:45
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Just another despot in Africa
And we want to be world players. What a joke. Whenever Mugabe arrives in SA and attends a conference he is given a standing ovation. Get out while u still can before a despot like Mugable takes over in SA.

by No confidence on December 08 2008, 18:54
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well said "önce proud"
i totally agree with you: you lot should be ashamed of yourselves!! you achieve nothing but destruction where ever you go...

by fred on December 08 2008, 23:09
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Mugabe and his generals should be executed
No one has the balls to tackle Mugabe....and he knows it!.....easy for the whole world to talk and no action.....Big Chief, No Poop! Perhaps Bush should have sent his troops there to restore what was once the "breadbasket of Africa" - it's just become . .more

by Taz on December 09 2008, 07:20
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We are being tricked.
Someone behind the curtains, besides Mugabe, is pocketing big time, and must have big time connections int he West, otherwise they would have invaded already.

by Mark A. Question on December 09 2008, 09:58
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Mbeki to blame
For all his support of his comrade mate up north these last nine years, Cde Thabo Mbeki should be slapped with targetted sanctions. He should then be made to personally apologise to all those good Zimbabwean families who'se lives he has shattered through . .more

by Garth Sumner on December 09 2008, 10:41
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Uncle Bob
Dear Uncle Bob,

You have provoked the God of this universe when you made the statement that "Only God can take you our of power." Uncle Bob, you are on your way out, the God in heaven has spoken and His army leader stands and waits for the . .more

by pathway to freedom on December 09 2008, 10:48
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ZANU-PF Cannibalistic thugs will not change
Surely Mugabe and his thugs can be bought off and shipped out to enjoy their ill-gotten hoard of offshore wealth in luxurious lodgings in Angola, Gabon, DRC, China, SIngapore or Malaysia?
Quiet diplomacy, reasoned negotiations, appealing to his . .more

by mayday on December 09 2008, 14:25
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Thinking out the box
First SA helps to remove Mugabe - then we make Zim a SA province. Maybe have a referendum in Zim to decide. It would be the fastest way for the place to recover. I actually don't think many Zimbabweans would complain - most of them already live in SA or . .more

by Sad Days on December 10 2008, 20:14
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sa sucks as a neighbor
the heading says it all

by zimbo on December 11 2008, 03:27
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A message to Mugabe's accusers
all Mugabe's vilification articles which i have so far read contains writers hidden joy over the oubreak of cholera. the decease which is very common in africa and has nothing to do with democracy, rule of law, let alone power sharing.oddly some brainless . .more

by shakaman on December 11 2008, 17:46
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Article in today's UK Guardian: Bodies pile up as Mugabe wages war on diamond miners
I'd like to point you to this article in today's UK Guardian by Chris McGreal: "Bodies pile up as Mugabe wages war on diamond miners"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/11/diamond-miners-zimbabwe-war-mugabe

by cathmuller on December 11 2008, 18:23
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