Did Zuma & Motsoaledi get their AIDS stats wrong?

Last week President Zuma revealed an utterly dumbfounding 'fact' -- Aids caused a staggering 32 percent surge in registered deaths in 2008 (see here). This meant more than 180,000 more deaths last year than in 2007. The story made global headlines. It looked as if the apocalypse so long predicted had at last arrived.

Early this week the Minister of Health, Aaron Motsoaledi, repeated the numbers at a press briefing (see below). Again, mass coverage resulted.

I'm always ready to eat my hat, but experience has taught me NEVER to trust an Aids bwana. So I started making calls. StatsSA were clueless, but I eventually got an explanation from Dr. Debbie Bradshaw at the MRC in Cape Town. She said, "I don't know where the problem lies but Zuma somehow got the numbers wrong. The minister of health too. Somebody transposed two digits. Somebody must be dyslexic. We will forward a memo on the subject to the health minister."

In other words, there is no apocalypse. No massive Aids-related death surge. If anything, death registrations are stable.

So heads up. This country is full of HIV consultants and researchers and specialist HIV hacks who are paid a lots of money on account of their supposed expertise. The state president says that the Aids equivalent of an atom bomb has detonated among our people AND THERE'S NO REACTION AT ALL FROM ANY OF THEM. They all knew, like I did, that Zuma's number was bullshit, but they were perfectly happy to let it stand, cos big Aids numbers are good for business, innit?  NOT ONE OF THOSE MOTHERS SAID ANYTHING! They think you are stupid and want to keep you that way.

Rian Malan

NOTES:

The Minister's figures:

Source: Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, "HIV and AIDS: Business as Usual?", media briefing y the minister of health, November 10 2009

The trend according to Stats SA:

Source: Statistics South Africa, Mortality and causes of death in South Africa, 2007: Findings from death notification, November 2 2009

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responses to this article

Mess up with stats Denialism theory, blame on previous goverment, is just publicity stunt from Minister of Health, Eeey Hey!!, Listen Minister, we're not fools, just act and stop telling us what the stats are because you yourself don't know, you rely on some idiot for . .more those, stop trying to shine on others mess ups, you will not get it right yourself,and we will be around to remind you,act,dont tell us what you are planning on doing,do it. Then report to us on what you have done. . .less by Concerned-Citizen on November 13 2009, 14:55 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

I love this guy Rian calls it as he sees it. I have just read the chapter in his latest book where he investigates the official Aids figures - I have to admit it certainly makes you think. And the point above just illustrates this. The President makes a wild . .more statement based on false figures and no one even notices. That is kind of scary. A bit like saying you will find 500,000 people jobs before Christmas only to end up in reality with a million people LOSING their jobs. Can the journalists out there please stop being a bunch of brown noses and start doing some serious investigating. Hats off to Rian for actually getting off his A*** and putting in the groundwork needed in his quest to find answers. . .less by Sad Days on November 14 2009, 01:41 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

AIDS STATS We have all been led by the nose when it comes to this AIDS debacle. One minute you hear a story like this then you hear that it is not a global killer and some other virus is the top killer in the world and also that it is not a death sentence should to . .more contract the virus yet you wanna have people locked up because they got someone affected. It is a money making racket in this country because all you have to do is say you want to fight AIDS or you want to help AIDS victims with a few pamphlets and you can expect some overseas donations. It's the hen that laid the golden egg. . .less by wayne on November 14 2009, 06:23 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

RIAN MALAN AND THE DEATH STATS The entire content of Mr. Malan's claim is what Dr. Bradshaw told him. Was Dr. Bradshaw the source of Minister Motsoaledi's figure for deaths in 2008? If so, then that's important. If not, who was? (The table and graph at the bottom do not seem to have . .more any bearing on this claim either way.) However, the really big story is in the Home Affairs Registry table shown here: Declining births and rising deaths every year. South Africa is dying! (In fact, Africa is dying.) Is Mr. Malan interested in that, or only Minister Motsoaledi? If the Minister is looking for financing to pay for antiretrovirals, more power to him, but that is not enough: I trust he also knows that extreme poverty is a powerful co-factor for AIDS and other killers. And that is a problem that must be addressed with the same vigor as if it were capable of wiping out the entire country. Because it is. As Lyndon LaRouche says, "It's the physical economy, stupid!" . .less by David Cherry on November 16 2009, 00:19 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@David Cherry Read Rian's full piece in his new book. He talks of going looking for the AIDS devastation that had been previously warned of and instead only found coffin manufacturers everywhere going bankrupt because of lack of business. Plus an AIDS industry that had . .more so much money thrown at them that they struggled to know what to do with it all. To be honest, I am not sure exactly what to believe now - I am much more sceptical and realise that there are hidden agendas all around and that we must question everything. . .less by Sad days on November 16 2009, 09:26 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

oh no Rian, just as i got excited about AIDS saving us from the masses, my Monday couldn't start of worse. by peterpumpkineater on November 16 2009, 10:30 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@Sad days The people I know in the townships are burying their sisters, brothers, and children one after another. Saturdays are set aside for funerals. As for Rian, there are people who write books "proving" that nobody ever set foot on the Moon. They insist it was . .more all an elaborate hoax. Is Rian one of these people? More to the point, fertility has been dropping and the death rate is high. South Africa is headed for negative population growth when it actually needs more people. If you want to live in an industrial nation, you will want more people too, and you won't care what their color is, so long as they a chance at education and training and a chance to participate in a culture devoted to hard work. It can be done. Maybe Rian dreams of a rural African utopia. . .less by David Cherry on November 18 2009, 05:44 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

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