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On race and crime: A reply

James Myburgh
17 January 2010

James Myburgh responds to Gavin Silber and Nathan Geffen's critique

JOHANNESBURG - When an issue becomes tied up with nationalist sentiment it becomes almost impossible to debate it rationally. In this case a person's opinions are determined not by the facts of the matter, but by which side they identify with. Such seems to be the case in any debate on race and crime in South Africa.

To paraphrase George Orwell, the question of whether black or white South Africans are disproportionally affected by crime (and why this is so) is one that, in theory, it should be possible to give a reasoned and possibly definitive answer to.

In reality, it is very difficult to have a constructive discussion about the matter. The question is seen by certain participants as one of what Orwell called "competitive prestige" or, in this case, victimhood.

On the one side there are those, who regard it as a matter of faith that poor black South Africans must be the primary victims of crime and proceed from there. On the other, any article suggesting as much seems to attract a particularly moronic and (white) racist kind of response in the comments section.

In a recent paper Gavin Silber and Nathan Geffen take issue with my article pointing out that, contrary to the claims of the 142 academics and others, crime victimization surveys have, over the past decade, found that more white and Indian respondents report having fallen victim to crime than other groups.

The two authors state that "the view that whites are being disproportionately victimised needs to be debunked. Whites are not the primary victims of South Africa's social ills, and propagating the view that they are encourages ungenerous politics that refuses to acknowledge the responsibility whites have to address past wrongs."

This statement reflects the basic problem with the article, for it seems to reflect the starting, not the end point, of their researches. In an effort to achieve a predetermined outcome the author's tend - no doubt unconsciously and in completely good faith - to subtly distort both my argument and the evidence they think they have found to contradict it.

At the outset Silber and Geffen try to buttress their position by insinuating that, contrary to the actual phrasing of their letter, the 142 were actually referring to "serious and violent crime" (not crime in general). Having inserted this distinction, long after the fact, Silber and Geffen admonish me for failing to sufficiently distinguish (in my response) between different types and degrees of crime.

To begin with then, the authors read into the academics letter a claim they did not make, and read out of my response distinctions I did in fact touch upon (albeit mainly through quoting another author).

Silber and Geffen then use a shot gun approach to question the general validity of victims of crime surveys. These simply amount to a list of speculative suggestions, hurriedly put together, as to why these surveys should be treated with suspicion. One quotation from Michael O'Donovan that they employ in support of their case is taken egregiously out of context.

Further, the authors provide no response to O'Donovan's point that the finding that victimisation survey findings that wealthier communities and individuals are more likely to be the victims of crime are corroborated by "SAPS statistics on serious offences."

The point I made in my original article was that, for the moment, these victims of crime surveys are the most scientific evidence we have on the topic. If Geffen and Silber want to debunk their findings it is incumbent on them to come up with better data. But do they?

In their efforts to disprove the survey findings the authors focus almost wholly on a narrow category of violent crime - namely homicides.

The authors begin with StatSA's data on unnatural deaths for the period from 1997 to 2001. As Silber and Geffen note this shows no disproportion in the likelihood of a member each racial group succumbing to death through unspecified unnatural causes, although (young) black and coloured men were, it appears, more likely to die from assault than the other groups.

Silber and Geffen concede that in just under half of the cases the race of those who died during that period are unknown. Given such holes in the data it is difficult to see what weight can really be put on its findings one way or another.

There is much better data available from 2007 and this confirms that whites are more-or-less as likely as black South Africans to die of external causes of one kind or another. In the 78% of cases where racial data is available the breakdown is the following:

Table 1: Deaths by race 2007

Black

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

Total

Natural deaths

340986

84.6%

32333

8.0%

7014

1.7%

22648

5.6%

402981

Unnatural deaths

34517

81.6%

3521

8.3%

880

2.1%

3383

8.0%

42301

All deaths

375503

84.3%

35854

8.1%

7894

1.8%

26031

5.8%

445282

% of total population

79.6%

8.9%

2.5%

9.1%

Source: StatsSA Mortality and Population estimates for 2007

The authors claim that further "compelling data" is provided by a Medical Research Council (MRC) "investigation into female homicide rates in South Africa in 2004" which "used national mortuary data to determine that 2,8 of every 100 000 white women die as a result of murder, whereas 8,9 Africans and 18,3 coloureds meet the same fate. This shows, that at least for women, Myburgh is very likely wrong and the academics are right. Black women are disproportionately murdered."

How could the 142 academics be "right" about a claim they never made, and I "wrong" about something I never disputed? In any event Silber and Geffen misrepresent these findings. The report they reference makes clear that the figures they cite refer solely to rates of "intimate femicide" - i.e. cases where a woman is killed by her intimate partner - not to all female homicides. The full figures are as follows:

Table2: Estimate of murders of females by intimate partners, 1999[i]

Race

Population*

Percentage

Number

Percentage

Rate per 100,000

Black

11683651

75.6%

1023

75.8%

8.76

Coloured

1375413

8.9%

252

18.7%

18.32

White

1974767

12.8%

53

3.9%

2.68

Indian

424331

2.7%

21

1.5%

4.95

*Of females in South Africa 14 years and older in 1999.

For murders of females by others the racial differences are much narrower, as can be seen in the table below. It is important to note though that in the 905 cases analysed the perpetrator was unknown in 182 of them.

Table 3: Estimate of murders of females by others, 1999

Race

Population*

Percantage

Number

Percentage

Rate per 100,000

Black

11683651

75.6%

992

75.6%

8.49

Coloured

1375413

8.9%

191

14.6%

13.89

White

1974767

12.8%

116

8.9%

5.87

Indian

424331

2.7%

13

0.9%

3.06

*Of females in South Africa 14 years and older in 1999.

As can be seen from these two tables these estimates suggest that black (African) women are not "disproportionately murdered" though Coloured women may be.

Silber and Geffen then cite a Centre for The Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR) study of a number of high risk areas in South Africa. This apparently found that "85 per cent of homicide victims were black, nine per cent were coloured, five per cent Asian and one per cent of victims were white."

Again, this is undigested and misleading. It fails to make clear that the sample was representative not of the national population (as a careless reader may assume) but of the population of the particular areas analysed, and explain what that was. Moreover, the figures it refers to were not the percentage of homicide victims, but rather the racial profile of the population of that area. The complete and correct figures follow in the table below:

Racial profile of population surveyed, and murder victims

Black

Coloured

Asian

White

Resident Population %

85

9

5

1

Murder victims %

89 (1041)

10 (112)

1 (11)

<1(4)

Finally, the authors cite murder and rape statistics from Cape Town as a "case study." Given the political and demographic exceptionalism of that city is difficult to see why they do so other than that this very uniqueness supports the pre-ordained conclusion they are straining to reach.

But here again the authors fail to process the data properly. They make much of the fact that, according to police statistics, "five police districts account for over 44 per cent of murders - Nyanga (13,18 per cent), Harare Khayelitsha (8,67 per cent), Khayelitsha (8,47 per cent), Gugulethu (7,58 per cent), and Delft/Belhar (6,1 per cent)." But they fail to take us into their confidence by telling us what proportion of the population of Cape Town actually lives in these particular areas.

Finally, the authors do cite a source which indicates a considerably higher homicide rates in poor black and coloured areas than in the wealthier and whiter suburbs of the city.

After all this, the authors claim that this all somehow nullifies the more general findings of the victims of crime surveys and "indicates that the burden of serious crime is disproportionately absorbed by black and poor South Africans." It is difficult to see a rational connection between the evidence they have produced and this claim.

As noted earlier there are problems both with the data they cite and the way they have presented it. The selection of data is problematic as well - given that they have cherry picked a crime category and regions which tend to support their claims. Khayelitsha and the Joburg CBD, for example, are undoubtedly some of the most dangerous areas of the country. But the deep rural areas are often some of the safest. Limpopo is the province with by far the lowest murder rate.

Assuming that the evidence they have cited does in fact show, as is very possibly the case, that the murder rate nationally is in reality higher among black and Coloured South Africans all they have shown is ... that the murder rate is higher among these two racial groups. They have neither proved their own claim (about "serious crime") nor that of the 142 academics (about crime in general.)

There is a danger too in simply assuming that general murder rates reflect a more general burden of victimhood at the hands of our bandit class. Firstly, as the MRC findings indicate, many killings (and assaults) are carried out by intimates or acquaintances often in moments of drunken rage. Such so-called "social fabric crimes" are not really relevant in determining whether individuals from vulnerable minorities are seen as legitimate or soft targets by predatory criminals.

Secondly, those who live by the sword are likely to die by the sword. Violent offenders are very likely to themselves to be affected by violence and to die violent deaths. A 2004 American study noted that "the extant literature has established that delinquents and victims are often one and the same...Gang members who engage in violent offending experience higher levels of violent victimization than all other youths, even nongang youths who engage in violence." High homicide rates in gang ridden areas may thus partly be a product of inter-gang violence.

Thirdly, as O'Donovan cautions, death rates from violent crime are partly determined by the quality of emergency services and hospital care the victim has access to. He states, "The derived murder rates for an area may thus rest less on the inclination of a community to violence than on the quality of services in that area. The murder stats should thus be used with greater caution than is usual."

Finally, the authors suggest - while twisting what I actually wrote - that it is "far-fetched" to raise the possibility that the anti-white sentiments of the top ANC leadership in the 1990s could have given the green light to cross-racial crime. This is obviously a hypothesis that needs to be tested. But I fail to see why it is inherently implausible. Would Silber and Geffen also claim that Thabo Mbeki's equally "obscure" statements on AIDS and anti-retrovirals had no effect on people's behaviour on the ground or on the conduct of ANC apparatchiks in state and society?

ENDNOTE:


[i] Naeemah Abrahams (et al), "Mortality of Women From Intimate Partner Violence in South Africa: A National Epidemiological Study", Violence and Victims, Volume 24, Number 4, 2009

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 responses to this article

Crime : Sliber
Blah, blah, blah! Talking about two (black crime) apologists who were trying to disprove a fact: Whites, living in an apartheid type of world, do not have much violent crime. What there is, is usually dealt with sharply by the police and the courts. . .more

by CA Bez on January 17 2010, 23:43
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National Democratic Revolution
I demand racial representivity in crime, as such blacks should suffer 90% of all crimes.

by The Joker on January 18 2010, 02:07
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anti-white sentiments of the top ANC leadership 2009/10
1999 is irrelevant !
There is silent white genocide NOW.
2009 Zuma, Malema, Vets - rhetoric !
The cruelty is excessive !

by old, female on January 18 2010, 06:49
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Preconceived notions
It is intuitive that people perceived to have money and living vulnerably on farms and small holdings will be the victims of crime. People in Johannesburg,in terror of crime, are paying billions of rand for several layers of security. To a Johannesburg . .more

by Amanda on January 18 2010, 06:53
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Racialism in the crime
I once again state that black on white crime is driven 1st by hate for the white and then greed. I know that Muslim woman have escaped rape where white ... irrespective if they 90 or 2 have not.

The disease called poverty is the catalyst to . .more

by Five on January 18 2010, 07:26
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Thanks for that
But I dont need any statistics to convince me. Almost every one of my white friends, neighbours and family members have been victems of violent crime at the hands of black house robbers, some have been killed. It will happen to you and you and you - . .more

by lad on January 18 2010, 07:26
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White screams
Why blame the ANC alone? Have you noticed that not only the ANC, but the IFP and the PAC have never made 'Crime' an issue during election time. Only whites complain about it becauase they know its payback time.

by Piet Pompies on January 18 2010, 07:48
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Once again the real question goes unanswered
The real question is this: how many blacks and coloureds are attacking, murdering and raping whites, vs the number of whites attacking blacks? The real problem is that the overwhelming majority of intraracial crime is one-way traffic. Little old white . .more

by Afrikaner on January 18 2010, 08:00
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racially profiling the victims is interesting....
....but let's profile the perpetrators too

by charlie on January 18 2010, 08:09
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Who are the perpetrators
I would like to see the stats on what % of the crimes are committed against which race group by another race group. E.g. what % is committed by blacks broken down into whites, coloureds & Indians. And what % is committed by whites against blacks, . .more

by Mark on January 18 2010, 08:28
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If only...
If only the people commenting at the bottom of articles would put as much thought into their comments as the authors do into their articles.

by think on January 18 2010, 08:35
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Facts are...
Facts are my family was held at gun point in our homes by 3 black youths, with guns. They were racially abusive during the incident, and physically violent. Who cares what this blurb is on about. In my mind I am under attack because I am white, and I need . .more

by DJA on January 18 2010, 08:38
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I have no doubt that the blacks are targetting the whites
They are able to kill on the off chance you have a cell phone. They kill the farmers too. This is the behaviour of people who are terribly angry or are uncivilised or both. You decide which. Look how they are behaving in Haiti. They are using the disaster . .more

by Agree on January 18 2010, 08:57
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Race and crime -the real test!
Implementation by ANC leadership and the government to remove Racism in the crime situation is not coming forward - policies are put in place - empty promises abound around election time but nothing happens on the ground. Talk is cheap!!

by Ben du Koker on January 18 2010, 09:15
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Crime
Come on people! You have a country that is 85% black (native african, excluding Indians and Coloureds). Of that population, 60% are desperately poor. On the flip side, 15% that comprise the rest of the population hold the real wealth in this country. . .more

by Voltron on January 18 2010, 10:16
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And clever, clever the ANC abolished the death penalty just in time......
because they knew this muder and mayhem perpetuated by black on white was coming. A re-run of the K wars in the ECape in the 1800's now applied to all of SA especially the farmers. And the sh*t that spews from the ANC in the name of a better life for all. . .more

by Piet on January 18 2010, 10:28
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@CA Bez
No, anyone disputing those "facts" is simply talking against your notion of the truth (aka your opinion).

by CTheB on January 18 2010, 10:39
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@Voltron
Well said. That is the truth of it. Low education/poverty correlate directly to crime! Thye most important point made = government ios f@cking it up! Vote with your feet black citizens and vote for change!

by nic on January 18 2010, 10:39
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Crime
Europeans general in SA, except for a few, tend to forget that they were and are still spoilt bunch and fooled by their thieving forefathers when they were protected at the expense of others in a foreign country for so long. Now that they are called upon . .more

by Tried of euro moaners in SA on January 18 2010, 10:43
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@ Agree
Please do a 2-minute internet search on the history of Haiti before you start mouthing off with your racist drivel. Haitians are violent and desperate because Haiti is a failed state, and has been that way since the 1860s thanks to insane punitive . .more

by Historian on January 18 2010, 10:49
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The real criminals 1
For good leftist ideologues to take their salaies is, as their paper demonstrates the most criminal act of all.
Perhaps the most significant statistic quoted in table 1 above is not the "unnatural deaths" but the natural deaths. The disproportionate . .more

by Theseus on January 18 2010, 11:10
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@Agree and Piet
Totally agree with you and at Historian, remember Haiti voted not to be ruled by France and 'suffer' the benefits they would have enjoyed but when the sh**t hits the fan they quickly shout HELP

by JvR on January 18 2010, 11:18
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Blaming our crime problems on poverty....
..is just convenient. In a society where by far the vast majority are living in abject poverty, anyone would expect high crime rates and it is tantamount to an additional tax. What is totally unacceptable in a civilized society is the degree of wanton, . .more

by Nick on January 18 2010, 11:20
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crime
the will always be crime in this world no matter what, so deal with it... stop this nosenses of who is the better government, there are many crimes committed by white people on black people that where never reported, do you think black people hate white . .more

by whatever on January 18 2010, 11:22
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@Tried
You need a dictionary. Period.
I would also suggest a brain but that is unlikely to happen.

by Freddie on January 18 2010, 11:32
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@Historian
Blaming the colonialists again. Haiti is like South Africa and the rest of the african country's that were colonised - if it was not for the "evil" whites there would not have been any roads, buildings, hospitals, schools, etc etc. Just trees with men . .more

by Kevin on January 18 2010, 11:41
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@Historian
Haitians had to pay punitive reparations to France in 1860. I fail to see how the current state of that failed nation can still be blamed on that. Germany paid reparations to France and the UK after WWI, and than had to be completely rebuilt after WWII, . .more

by Freddie on January 18 2010, 11:47
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The real criminals 2
Geffen & Nathan' Goebbelsstuk of sophistry & obfuscation is a triumph of Rorsarch over research, misinterpreting of evidence & faulty logic equal to the NPA's dropping Zuma's charges or the paroling of his accomplice.

Our heroes ignore that crime . .more

by Theseus on January 18 2010, 11:48
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Social equality is the wrong way to look at this
For a strong society, the contributors have to be protected as a priority of government. Whether or not there is crime elsewhere is of secondary import, because if the contributors are killed then the society has no more resources for any kind of . .more

by Radek Tanski on January 18 2010, 11:53
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Seriously?
JvR, let me put this in terms you can understand. I'll also try to use very small words.

I assume you're an Afrikaner, what with the whole JvR name. OK. Let's pretend the British enslaved the Afrikaners in 1700. Not annexed. Not a system where . .more

by @ JvR on January 18 2010, 12:07
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stats
quick look on the web. India 32 318 murders, total no op people 1.13Billion. SA 21553 , out of 48m , Australia 255 out of 20.3 Million. It's clear that First world countries the chances are much much less to de murdered. 3rd world very high. Also India is . .more

by badprop on January 18 2010, 12:22
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The real issue is
Not whom they are killing but who are the killers. An interesting article I came across the other day

http://www.rense.com/general89/huge.htm

by Lord max master of infinity on January 18 2010, 12:35
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National Democratic Revolution..... by THE JOKER

Dear Joker, your posting "demand(s) racial representivity in crime, as such blacks should suffer 90% of all crimes".

I think the raw stats from any of the academics(?) viewpoints are not at odds with the basics of your posting "demands". . .more

by John Austin, London on January 18 2010, 13:12
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What a dreadfully poor article....
This article is drivel, an incoherent rambling on about 'facts' from questionable and misunderstood studies. I gave up reading half way through. Please no more of this rubbish. If Monayweb coinsiders this a quality article, then we are in trouble.. Sies.

by Old Nick on January 18 2010, 13:22
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politics not statistics
None of the statistics are actually relevant to the argument for asylum:

1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees asylum-seekers must show that they have a well-founded fear of persecution due to their race, religion, . .more

by math101 on January 18 2010, 13:30
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On the issue of crime stats... or rather the lack thereof
It matters not what this study or that study reveals. What does matter is that those who have been entrusted with the duty of monitoring, assessing and developing effective responses to counter crime have failed us all miserably.

As long as . .more

by Old Nick on January 18 2010, 13:31
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politics not statistics 2
The statistics given do not show voting tendency of the assaulted. The fact they are split along colour and poverty could be the wrong slice to take. Perhaps this is showing that that the DA supporters are being persecuted? Perhaps the ANC are being . .more

by math101 on January 18 2010, 13:35
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@ seriously
Its idiots like you who grant the Afrikaaner the right to hate the English.
Your P******* attempt at patronizing doesn't make you look clever,it makes you look like an ignorant hyserical little faggot .

by Voortrekker on January 18 2010, 13:51
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@Historian
Blaming colonialism is senseless. Without colonialism most blacks would not even be here as the huge amounts of food, medicine and infrastructure that colonialism brought, made it possible to feed the black population explosion. It seems blacks are not . .more

by Get real on January 18 2010, 13:53
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Thanks Lord Max ..............This is a better article ...More to The Point
http://www.rense.com/general89/huge.htm This article puts life in South Africa more into perspective ..............A MUST READ

by mmm on January 18 2010, 15:17
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Racism
I find the racism on this page indicative of the racism and nationalism in Myburgh's original article. I will no longer visit this site because it is populated by people who long for apartheid and some who wish violence on black people.

We have . .more

by Zackie Achmat on January 18 2010, 15:40
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give us some useful statistics for a change
1. show us the perpetrators, not just the victims, of murders, rapes and violent house robberies based on race
2. the police own crime stats which show a disgusting increase in almost all forms of violent and sexual crimes despite already being among . .more

by Reality on January 18 2010, 15:56
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crime problem, what crime problem?
Assuming you and your friends live to be 75 year old, at the current annual rate of crime, as a South African Citizen, statistically:
1 of ever 36 people you know will be murdered
1 of 9 people you know will be a victim of a reported sexual . .more

by reality hurts on January 18 2010, 16:05
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@Freddie
You are wrong. Germany has not paid back its reparations for WW1. They will only be paid back by 2020.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations

by . on January 18 2010, 16:15
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ANC Blinkers
ANC dont realise that chasing the qualifies middle class and entrepreneurs out of the country by their failure to adress crime , service delivery, growth, job creation corruption etc. ... - It is AKIN TO HANDING MINERAL WEALTH TO OUR OVERSEAS COMPETITION . .more

by BobHopes on January 18 2010, 16:22
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@Zackie Achmat/racism
Bye -Bye Zackie. I have no doubt your insightful contributions will be sorely missed.
You could possibly read the Sun News paper instead.

by Pioneer on January 18 2010, 17:00
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@.
Actually Germany stopped paying any reparations even before WWII started. The point I am trying to convey, my myopic analyst, is that many other countrys have gone through far worse setbacks than Haiti did 150 years ago. I like your conviction in your . .more

by Freddie on January 18 2010, 17:05
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@. on German reparations
The final payment date is in dispute- German wikipedia says 2010.

by Voortrekker on January 18 2010, 17:13
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@Voortrekker
@Voortrekker -USA gets paid in 2010, other countries 2020 per English wiki. Germany has balked at payments for political reasons since the original agreement finding one excuse after another so its no suprise that German wiki states something different. . .more

by . on January 18 2010, 18:13
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@Voortrekker
The Berliner archived article also states 2020.

http://www.berlinonline.de/berliner-zeitung/archiv/.bin/dump.fcgi/1999/1009/none/0001/index.html

by . on January 18 2010, 18:21
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Africa
With the empty brainless people in charge there is no hope for the future , these people invented nothing of note ,like the space shuttle etc . so we are doomed, the stupid people are the majority in charge , the liberals that caused this have now left . .more

by emty heads on January 18 2010, 19:02
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@Historian
Sorry to say this but that is another problem with them. They tend like you have done to blame some event or someone else for their appalling behaviour and failure to make a positive contribution to the world. Why do they not add to the quality of life? . .more

by Agree on January 18 2010, 19:17
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MY EARLIER POST.
THE TRUTH HURTS SO MY POST ISN'T POSTED . this is Africa .

by EMPTY HEAD on January 18 2010, 19:21
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@ Agree . RE ; @ Historian
The truth the blacks / Africans have a problem with , its everybody else fault , never them . the lack of I Q is a problem with them .

by EMPTY HEAD = aFRICA on January 18 2010, 19:37
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Goodbye
Well,
1 You supported the root cause of the criminality before the last elections: the ANC
2 The so-called Social Justice Coalition and AIDS Law Project work with your Treatment Action Campaign, Geffen and Nathan are your little white puppets. . .more

by To Zachie Achmat on January 18 2010, 21:33
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Hidden link between Race and Crime in South Africa
and Germany's non-payment of WWI reparations found in Politicsweb.

by Klaus in RSA on January 19 2010, 00:42
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@ Klaus in RSA
Well Klaus thats to be expected when countries are put on a pedestal and worshipped as countries worthy of emulating. You are virtually guaranteed that all the sordid details will be dragged out into the open, not just the superficial image presented for . .more

by . on January 19 2010, 06:04
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@whatever
No one is saying there is no white on black crime .... but the way this country leans... ...... it is a BIGGER crime if it is white on black than the other way ... besides its the black youth that are more hateful and revengeful than the those that . .more

by Five on January 19 2010, 07:39
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race and crime
people this is africa MUGABE is blaming the WEST
30 years later for a rich coutry he F*** up

by ivan on January 19 2010, 07:52
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@.
You have completely misread your own "disputed" references in your incorrect statement. Germany is NOT repaying ANY reparations, they stopped way back in the 1930's. They ARE however paying the interest on loans taken at that time (1930's) to pay for some . .more

by Freddie on January 19 2010, 16:02
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crime
crime only exists because the ANC has not kept their promises to us of a better live after apartheid

by Fezile on January 23 2010, 14:36
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