The week that Zuma lost it?

President Jacob Zuma has reason to contemplate the veracity of an observation made by former British premier Harold Wilson shortly after he led the Labour Party to victory in the 1964 general election: "A week is a long time in politics."

Though it may not have been immediately obvious, a major political shift occurred in the week which started with the expose in the Sunday Times naming Zuma as the father of a baby girl born to Sonono Khoza, daughter of Irvin Khoza of soccer fame, and which ended with Zuma's apology to his family, the African National Congress and the nation at large for impregnating a woman outside the parameters of his polygamous marriage.

The apology, however, is better described as one that was extracted from him by senior members of the ANC rather than a spontaneous gesture from the heart signalling genuine remorse.

It is important to remember that Zuma's first reaction was to describe his infidelity as a private matter between the families concerned and that he had sought to put right by paying damages to the Khoza family in accordance with Zulu cultural mores.

There is another important aspect to Zuma's initial reaction: he described his relationship with Sonono Khoza as a private matter and attacked the media for violating his and her rights to privacy, as well as accusing the media of denying his infant daughter the right to existence, without explaining how identifying him as the father denied her the right to live.

But it is clear that Zuma's response failed to convince many South Africa of all races, some of whom accused him of using or abusing Zulu culture to justify his philandering inclinations, pointing out that polygamous marriages do not give the husband the right to have sex with women to whom he is not married.

As it turned out, the sense of disquiet over Zuma's affair was shared by senior members in the ANC, who, fearing that his defence of his action was politically damaging to the ANC, prevailed on him to issue a second statement in which he apologised unreservedly for his adulterous relationship with Sonono.

The intervention of the ANC's leadership corps - which might have included Winnie Madikizela-Mandela - may have signalled a growing unease within the ANC that Zuma is a liability rather than an asset to the ANC and that his tenure as ANC president should be limited to one term.

The implications of that extrapolation are (1) that Zuma would not seek re-election as ANC president at the ANC's elective conference in 2012 and (2) that he would therefore not be eligible to serve as the ANC's candidate to occupy the national presidential office in 2014.

These developments are not written in stone. They have, however, become probable rather than improbable or, to put it another way, the week in question has wrought profound changes in the ANC by casting Zuma as a liability rather than an asset to the party.

On that note it is relevant to record that Zuma's belated apology met with scepticism from a wide range of people, some of them ANC supporters and members.

Some them recall that Zuma expressed similar contrition in 2006  for having had unprotected sex with an HIV-positive women young enough to be his daughter after he was acquitted of raping her, the presiding judge having ruled that the sex between Zuma and the women was consensual.

The same ANC aligned observers ask whether Zuma will not again forget that he admitted that he erred in have sex with Sonono and promised to act more responsibly and prudently in future.

David Welsh, former professor of African government at the University of Cape Town and author of The Rise and Fall of Apartheid, observes that much will depend on how the ANC fares in next year's local government elections.

If the ANC suffers serious losses to opposition parties, the chances of Zuma serving another a second term as ANC president will be severely diminished. If the ANC strengthens its hold over the smaller towns and, more importantly, in the major cities, Zuma may yet become a two-term president.

Welsh describes Zuma performance as president as "disastrous" and characterised by lots of talk but little action.

Noting Zuma's failure to intervene decisively to end the squabbling between nationalists and communists in the ANC-led tripartite alliance, as well as his failure to take firm action against cabinet ministers who are using their positions to negotiate lucrative deals with government-owned corporations, Welsh describes Zuma as a "weak leader."

Welsh's assessment should be seen in the context of a recent Sunday Independent interview with Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, a former ANC Women's League president and a high-ranking member of the Zuma-led ANC's national executive committee.

She states bluntly in the interview that the present ANC is "not my ANC". In the same interview - which she has not repudiated - she describing the manoeuvring for position, power and privilege in the ANC today as "disgusting."

It is unclear whether she was expressing her disgust in an attempt, so to speak, to clean the Aegean stables or whether she did so in pursuit of a political agenda. Either way, her comments are not supportive of Zuma and may be the prelude to an internal party coup aimed at limiting his tenure as ANC and South African president to one term.

If the disquiet with Zuma's leadership intensifies and he is forced or persuaded to surrender his leadership of the ANC in 2012, it is unclear who would succeed him. The most likely candidate at present is Tokyo Sexwale who, at the age of 57, is still young enough to serve as president. Apart from his relatively young age, there are two further factors in his favour.

Firstly, Sexwale is famously wealthy and will be able to mount an impressive campaign in pursuit of his presidential ambitions, which first surfaced in the late 1990s and were revived again in 2007 when he declared his willingness to stand as a candidate for the presidency, only to withdraw in favour of Zuma.

Secondly, he is the minister of human settlement and is well positioned to win the votes of the poor and homeless by launching a well-timed housing programme.

But if a week is a long time in politics, there is ample time over the next two years for more than one candidate to emerge and enter the arena to challenge Sexwale.

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2012. Is a long way off. We have much to do in South Africa - and time is running out - to get it done. Tokyo? Now that would suit the white capitalists. Would it not? Considering his wealth, his business interests - and the fact that he has a white wife? Who . .more probably would not tolerate polygamy. . .less by Carl Wille on February 11 2010, 17:37 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Dubrovnik here we come That's 'Augean stables', not 'Aegean stables'. by DA Mal on February 11 2010, 18:31 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Sigh - 2 more kids found In Pietermaritzburg - so that's 22 ... and counting ... is this a gene pool that should be spread so prolifically ? by Sad days on February 11 2010, 19:50 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The Prudes are out in force! Now I have about had it with all the criticism of President Zuma's peccadilloes... I mean, the very same people who will defend Bill Clinton's Oral Office Adventures as a private issue, who have been condemning Calvinists and other Social Conservatives, . .more including Catholics, as Prudes who need to lighten up and enjoy the flesh! These very same hypocrites are now suddenly out here condemning President Zuma for leading a live of carnal satisfaction in service of the Great Goddess Aphrodite! Here they have been OK with the exploitation of women in pornography, and they will and have defended and even promoted that everything and anything is OK between any two, ANY TWO OR EVEN MORE, consenting adults, and that those people who appeal to dignity, to prudence, and to social conservacy, are a bunch of tight-A** prude losers. Now these A**-holes are out here condemning President Zuma for his successes with the ladies, and his the question his RIGHT to procreate with whomever he wishes to procreate with and who will accept his advances. 22 children! Now that is what I call genetic superiority. President Zuma is a superman! His descendents will populate the future, and the whinging losers above will leave no legacy of any sort. . .less by JVR on February 11 2010, 22:09 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Dubrovnik here we come You are correct about the spelling of Augean, but Dubrovnik is on the Adriatic coastline, not the Aegean. by Stevenzok on February 11 2010, 23:44 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The President Why should Zuma be remorse? He certainly in't. As president he just should resign. by Klaus in RSA on February 12 2010, 00:34 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Seahorses It may be charitable to suggest that Patrick did indeed intend to write "Aegean", implying there were seahorses' stables that Winnie might clean - stables crammed with dung dating back to the days of Stompie and the Argonauts. by malsped on February 12 2010, 01:01 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Stupid Article I didn't need to read further than the headline to tell you the answer! There is no way in hell that Zuma will leave before another term is done. The electorate and general ANC are too stupid to know any better. They see the flag and . .more make the cross. Besides, what a bonus that he can sing and dance about his machine gun! . .less by Joe Soap on February 12 2010, 07:19 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

CHECKMATE In the game of chess there are always pieces that one is prepared to secrifice to protect the king.I strongly believe that there are those within the movement[ANC] that from the onset did not see Zuma as a suitable candidate for this position but given . .more the fact that there was Mbeki to contend with ,did not have balls to take the fight to the enermy[Mbeki].In a case like that they decide to have a secrificial lamb which happened to be Zuma while knowing that given his history and other things which were "only known to them about him "at the time ,it was going to be easy at a later stage to unseat him or let him unseat himself as it seems to be the case given his unending stories with women.I personally don't see how he can manage a second term unless we are prepared to loose the next elections and we better face reality and stop this blind loyalty. . .less by LUCKY NKHWASHU on February 12 2010, 07:55 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The Three stooges destroying Africa. They must go. They must go by whatever means. Zuma. Mugabe. Gadaffi by Patrick on February 12 2010, 07:57 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

choices I can not think of anyone in the ANC who I would welcome as president. Tokyo?Great! we would have a first lady who has been arrested for diamond smuggling which required high-level intervention from Brig. Modise to get her released. Most of these ANC . .more people come with baggage. . .less by Annie on February 12 2010, 08:05 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Reigning King Is Zuma really the person who is ruling South Africa? or he is just reigning as a figure head. If he is a figure head, then who is ruling the country. With all the time he has to do all these extra curricula and miscelleneous activities, that . .more require sweat and tears, who is looking after the interests of the country? Zuma's acts have not only made all of us as South African's the laughing stock of the world, but reduced a once highly respected nation, to nothing less than 'another African bumbling baffoon' status nation. Zuma is the single most serious threat, not only to our nation's hard earned name brand, its reputation, and glorious achievements. He has taken us from the enlightened age of technological advancement to the far recesses of the stone age. He is the single most serious threat to our national security, and if he had honor he would fully focus on reigning over South Africa, with minimal damage...based on the reputation he already had. Now he is not even pleasing his 'bosses' who are the rulers of the country. It is only fair that in the interests of all he should consider resigning. But am not holding my breath. He is caught up in the cult of leadership. . .less by Potso on February 12 2010, 08:15 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Hamba Lawlense As a publicly known DA supporter nothing u say, no matter how corrigible your argument is, will ever persuade some of us, even if Zuma or any other liberation leader for that matter were to S***** on their pants every single second. by Afrique on February 12 2010, 08:25 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

proof read articles proof read your articles please. grammatical mistakes are not acceptable by ndoda embi on February 12 2010, 08:53 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

a photo speaks just look at his photo and dont say what you think by zumatra on February 12 2010, 08:55 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Whats so funny Looking at this laughinig face just make me sick our counrty has become one big joke and thanks to Zuma, by Mdaka on February 12 2010, 09:44 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@Afrique That is why people like you dont deserve the vote. Zuma was elected by 2000 delegates and not the country,the sooner electorial rules are changed where the people who are paying the taxes have a greater say the better. by Mike on February 12 2010, 09:49 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

new president The ANC have always chosen the least productive fork in the road whenever a decision is made. This will preclude them from deploying Sexwale as next president. Malema is their natural choice as he will be the most destructive, and get us back to virgin . .more bush the quickest. . .less by guymullins on February 12 2010, 10:02 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@Carl Wille Who are the "white capitalists"?? Are you refering to the black ANC ministers driving expensive german cars, Malema with his R200,000 watch or the few black billionaires very willingly created through BEE, AA, goverment tenders, etc,etc by Kevin on February 12 2010, 10:17 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@Afrique Many people say they will vote ANC, no matter what happens. Look how that attitude destroyed Zimbabwe and the lives of 10m people - with people voting for Zanu PF untill there was nothing left! The ANC politicians are so glad about this attitude. It . .more clears them from accountability. There is a huge responsibility on every SA voter to vote reponsibly. . .less by Jan on February 12 2010, 10:54 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@ndoda embi Grammar Proofread is one word, and we begin a sentence with a capital letter; so it should read "Grammatical errors are not acceptable". by John Kalala on February 12 2010, 10:57 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

The Week That Journalists Started Smoking That Green Stuff All these so called expert pundits. I am often left wondering if they have any clue at all. This talk about the supposed demise of JZ is just a pipe dream of right wing elitists. IT AINT GOING TO HAPPEN. Dream on. by The world according to the Right wing on February 12 2010, 12:41 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Yep Agree But Not Sexwale Time to change leaders, 22 kids for a president , he cant speak , does not prepare for a state of the nation speech, did you see how many errors he made in pronouncing words (ABSA / DBSA --big diff) , he has no pull anymore and is not worthy of being in . .more the position of leader, he is a great man but under a great leader like Madiba , people will resognise -- this is why he has made it soo far in the Org , he just does not fit the look , Mothlanthe fits this bill to the tee . . . lets pls kick Zuma out before he damages futher the reputation of the great ANC -- many members me being one would gladly vote for him to leave, pls before the centenary celebrations next year. . . . .less by Zizi on February 12 2010, 13:31 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Orens No ghoul like an old ghoul by Domza on February 12 2010, 17:15 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

@Afrique "...even if Zuma or any other liberation leader for that matter were to S***** on their pants..." Zuma's got s*** for brains, don't care about it in his pants, what he should keep in his pants is his p***k, he seems to have been given that in lieu of . .more brains. Mind you he's obviously got more brains than the rest of the ANC voters who keep him where he is, because they appear to think that the moron is a genius. . .less by Jeff on February 12 2010, 19:56 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Zuma has all the qualifications to lead South Africa He has many wives with more to come and who knows how many girl friends, was once under suspicion for fraud and corruption, has many many kids some say 20, has unprotected sex, has illegitimate children, has unprotected sex with woman about half his age, . .more has had unprotected sex and extra marital sex with a friends daughter without the friend knowing about the unprotected sex or the illegitimate child, has had unprotected sex with a girlfriend who he knew had aids and then had a shower to wash the hiv off, has no formal education, keeps shouting fo a machine gun, sings and dances like they did in the dark ages sometimes dressed in dark ages animal skins, never makes a decision, tries to please everyone, takes money from others like Shaik who was found guilty of corruption, has displayed mismanagement of the country since he was appointed the number one black man in South Africa ... need we go on? Defineitely the very best choice the ANC can make to run SA right into the ground in no time at all. That is what they do in Africa in my opinion. . .less by Why the surprise about Zuma? on February 13 2010, 11:17 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

f*****of zuma has set a very bad example. A polygamist president, what the hell on earth.he should f*****of and be deployed to herd cattle in nkandla by zuzuzuz on February 13 2010, 14:56 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

I couldn't care less... Zuma is the last ANC "president" I'm going to be laughing at - the diaspora beckons. BTW, it was "Augean" stables when I was a boy... by Alset on February 13 2010, 21:46 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Agree with Potso I agree with Potso. Zuma is not in charge, he is just being given enough rope to "hang himself", then the real leaders will change him. We must not forget that there is tons of history and favours that need to be worked through and paid. Lets just hope . .more that the South African Brand does not get too damaged in the process. . .less by Bjorn on February 14 2010, 08:45 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

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