Criminal Conviction Rate: Lies, damned lies and statistics

The Development Indicators recently released by the Department of the Presidency: Performance Monitoring and Evaluation, reveal a gross distortion of the conviction rates in our courts.

The Development Indicators claim a conviction rate of almost 90% for the period from 2006/7 to 2010/11. Using quite a "creative method" - lending credence to the expression "lies, damned lies and statistics" - the Department takes the number of convictions as a percentage of the number of cases finalised with a verdict. This is completely disingenuous given the number of cases disposed of in each year. 

The conviction rate should in fact be calculated by using the number of convictions as a percentage of the total number of cases disposed of in court. Calculated in this manner, fewer than one in three cases before South African courts lead to conviction (see the "real conviction rate" in the table below). 

In the matters regarded as "disposed of", the Department has included the matters removed from the roll, as well as those resolved by the alternative dispute resolution mechanism (ADRM). Last year, approximately 55% of cases were removed from the roll. This means that more than half the matters sent to court are therefore not dealt with at all, let alone "disposed of".

Although on either analysis there appears to be an upward trend in the conviction rate, which is to be welcomed, the low percentage is totally unacceptable. It is equally unacceptable that 55% of cases that are sent to the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) for prosecution are removed from the roll. This matter has been raised in the Portfolio Committee on Justice and Constitutional Development, but in the absence of satisfactory answers to-date, the Democratic Alliance (DA) will be submitting parliamentary questions requesting reasons for the large number of case removals.

South Africa has an unacceptably high level of contact and violent crime, with approximately 2.1 million incidents of crime reported last year alone. To grossly misrepresent the conviction rate in this manner is not only an insult to the victims of crime, but also undermines the efforts of the criminal justice system as a whole to effectively and efficiently deal with crime.

Statement issued by Debbie Schafer MP, DA Shadow Deputy Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development, June 4 2012

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