FEATURES

Zimbabwe's voters' roll: An analysis - RAU

Research & Advocacy Unit
07 July 2013

Organisation says there are well over 1m deceased or departed people on roll

KEY STATISTICS FROM THE JUNE 2013 VOTERS' ROLL

Governance Unit, Research & Advocacy Unit [RAU]

2 July 2013

Background

The Research and Advocacy Unit, RAU, is in the process of preparing a report on the state of the Voters' Roll as it was as of 1st June, 20131. However, with elections pending, the exigencies of the situation demand that the key statistics, on which the report will be based, are released without delay. These statistics are of importance to all those concerned to ensure that the elections are conducted freely and fairly and with regard to accepted democratic standards. The statistics appear in the Tables set out below, and, although appearing with little accompanying comment, in most instances speak for themselves.

Demographics

RAU's analysis of the Voters' Roll has been facilitated by the release of the preliminary results of the 2012 census. However, these results do not disclose the statistic of prime importance here, the number of adults in Zimbabwe as indicated by ages of 18 years or more. The analysis has thus proceeded on the basis of the percentages of the population in each age band supplied by Zimstat (the body which conducts the census) and used by Zimstat to calculate data in a 2012 survey on Health and Demographics in Zimbabwe.2 Zimstat is of the view that these percentages have not changed significantly in the few years since that survey, a view supported by the fact that the census shows that Zimbabwe has a low growth rate of 1.1%.3

The number of adults (and thus potentially eligible voters) in the 15 - 19 age band has been determined by calculating two-fifths of the total. It is believed that the number thus arrived at is

sufficiently accurate for present purposes.

Table 1 shows the number of adults in each age band according to the census, compared with the number of people in those age bands registered as voters. The final column shows the percentage of the adult population registered as voters.

Table 1: Comparison of 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll by Age Band

Age Bands

Adult Population [Census 2012]

Voter Population [Voters' Roll June 2013]

Numerical Difference

% Registered

18 - 19

524,142

46,506

477,636

8.87%

20 - 24

1,154,669

225,787

928,882

19.55%

25 - 29

1,063,852

549,946

513,906

51.69%

30 - 34

830,324

881,149

-50,825

106.12%

35 - 39

674,638

899,362

-224,724

133.31%

40 - 44

467,057

759,189

-292,132

162.55%

45 - 49

363,267

48,0961

-117,694

132.40%

50 - 54

389,214

463,578

-74,364

119.11%

55 - 59

337,319

390,734

-53,415

115.84%

60 - 64

259,476

296,487

-37,011

114.26%

65 - 69

181,633

217,402

-35,769

119.69%

70 - 74

129,738

193,434

-63,696

149.10%

75 - 79

116,764

128,577

-11,813

110.12%

80 +

155,686

341,003

-185,317

219.03%

TOTALS

6,647,779

5,874,115

773,664

88.36%

The same data is represented below graphically for ease of understanding.

Figure 1: Comparison of 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll by Age Band

IMAGE

In an ideal situation, all those who ought to be registered as voters are, and those who ought not to be, such as those deceased, are not. Although the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission took special steps to facilitate registration before the production of the June roll analysed here, and although nearly 300,000 deceased people were reported to have been removed from the roll in the months immediately preceding its compilation, Table 1 shows a large disjuncture between the ideal and the actual.

Very few adults aged under 30 years are registered. This is most marked in the 18 -19 age band, where only 8% are registered. In numerical terms, this means that a total of 1,920,424 people under the age of 30 ought to be registered as voters but are not.4 This is almost 29% of the total adult population of 6,647,779. Since there are unregistered people in the other age bands, the total percentage of the entire adult population who ought to be registered as voters but are not, is considerably higher than 29%.

The "under-registration" in these other age bands is concealed by "over-registration" in all of the age bands from 30 years and above. If the under-registration in these bands were to be taken into account, as it ought to be, the percentages of over-registration shown in Table 1 would increase. It should also be noted that the over-registration figures assume a 100% registration rate, which is improbable. The percentages of over-registration will increase in direct proportion to the extent that the registration rate is less than 100%.

Even without considering these factors, however, Table 1 indicates that the number of registered voters exceeds the population of Zimbabwe, in all age bands of 30 and above, by a considerable margin. This is most notable in the 40 - 44 age group (162%) and the 80+ age group (219%). In the former, some of the over-registration may be explained by people who are registered as voters, but were absent from the country during the census count, that is, are part of Zimbabwe's diaspora. The latter group most probably represents a large number of deceased persons who names still appear on the Voters' Roll. In numerical terms the "over-registration" of people aged 30+ against the actual population is 1,146,760.

This conclusion is further supported by the fact that there is an unlikely 116,195 people aged over 100 still on the roll.

Constituency "Over-Registration"

The problem of over-registration can also be considered by constituency. Table 2 indicates data for each province with the number of constituencies in each province where the number of

registered voters exceeds the population in those constituencies appearing under the last column heading.

Table 2: "Over Registration" of Voters as indicated by comparison with 2012 Census

Province

Total Population 2012 Census

Adult Population 2012 Census

June 2013 Voters' Roll

No of Constituencies with over-registration

Bulawayo

655,675

338,066

340,901

7

58%

Harare

2,0981,99

1,081,831

801,815

10

34%

Manicaland

1,755,000

904,878

736,799

4

15%

Mashonaland Central

1,129,449

582,344

504,416

5

28%

Mashonaland East

1,337,059

689,388

651,492

12

52%

Mashonaland West

1,449,938

747,588

621,404

4

18%

Masvingo

1,486,604

766,493

697,587

12

46%

Matabeleland North

743,871

383,540

359,786

5

38%

Matabeleland South

685,046

353,210

378,124

9

69%

Midlands

1,622,476

836,549

781,790

10

36%

TOTALS

12,963,317

6,683,886

5,874,114

78

Table 2 thus indicates that in 78 of Zimbabwe's 210 constituencies, the number of registered voters exceeds the total population there, as indicated by the census.

Delimitation

These problems of "over" and "under" registration obviously affect the delimitation of constituencies, since this is based upon the number of registered voters in each constituency.

Delimitation will be inaccurate to the extent that the voters' roll incorrectly reflects the number of voters in each constituency. Constituencies were last delimited ahead of the 2008 elections. There is to be no new delimitation ahead of the 2013 elections5 despite extensive demographic changes and changes to the Voters' Roll since 2008.

Both the old and the new constitution provide that the number of registered voters in each constituency should, as far as is possible, be equal, thus ensuring that no vote is of greater or less value than another in elections for the National Assembly. The number of registered voters should thus be spread evenly across the 210 constituencies, making a mean of 27,972 voters per constituency. Both constitutions, however, allow a variation of up to 20% more or less than the average number of voters registered in each constituency. The permissible (though undesirable) variation of 20% has the result that the maximum and minimum number of voters in each constituency should not exceed 33,566 registered voters per constituency or be less than 22,378.

The distribution of voters on the June 2013 roll is such that 23 constituencies exceed the permissible maximum and 17 are below the permissible minimum. Mbare has a voter population 154% greater than the mean (43,169 voters) and Chipinge East is has a voter population of only 46% of the mean (12,940 voters), as can be seen from Table 4 (The full data can be seen in Appendix 3).

Table 4: Number of constituencies with voter's numbers more or less than 20% constitutional limits for delimitation

Province

June 2013 Voters' Roll

No. of Constituencies above Maximum allowed [33566]

No. of Constituencies below Minimum allowed [22378]

Bulawayo

300,743

0

0

Harare

788,959

3

6

Manicaland

753,982

3

1

Mashonaland Central

537,708

4

0

Mashonaland East

664,141

4

2

Mashonaland West

609,732

1

0

Masvingo

727,697

4

4

Matabeleland North

362,150

2

1

Matabeleland South

351,954

2

1

Midlands

777,048

0

2

Totals:

5,874,114

23

17

Gender

The Voters' Roll shows no gender bias when considered as a whole. The picture may, however, change when gender is considered across each age band, though this analysis has yet to be undertaken. Table 5 shows that the gender distribution of voters almost exactly matches the divide according to the census, with women outnumbering men on both by almost identical percentages, roughly 48%:52%.

Table 5: Comparison of Gender between 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll

Census

Roll

Male

6234931

48.06%

2824458

48.08%

Female

6738877

51.94%

3050651

51.93%

Totals

12973808

100%

5874114

100%

Summary

The compilation of the Voters' Roll is always a moving target. Old voters die and new voters are added. The Voters' Roll can thus never meet the ideal indicated at the outset. However, the gap

between the ideal and the actual should be kept within reasonable limits if the electoral process is to be deemed fair and credible. The statistics presented here show:

1. That there are nearly 2 000 000 potential voters aged under 30 who are unregistered.

2. That there are well over 1 000 000 people on the roll who are either deceased or departed.

3. That 78 constituencies have more registered voters than inhabitants.

4. That 40 Constituencies deviate from the average number of voters per constituency by more than the permitted 20%.

Such statistics suggest that the gap between the ideal and the actual impinges upon the integrity of Zimbabwe's electoral process.

Governance Unit

Research & Advocacy Unit [RAU] 2nd July 2013

Footnotes:

1 Zimbabwe does not have a national voters' roll, but rather a roll for each of the 210 constituencies. The colloquial term is used for convenience.

2 Zimbabwe 2010-11 Demographic and Health Survey Key Findings Zimstat 2012. The numbers do not appear in the report but were supplied by a Zimstat official.

3 Census 2012: Preliminary Report Zimstat December 2012 p1.

4 This assumes that the vast majority of the adult population are citizens and thus entitled to register as voters.

Appendix 1

Demographic Break Down - Zimstat March 2012 Report.

Age Band

%

0 - 4

14.8

5 - 9

13.9

10 - 14

14.1

15 - 19

10.1

20 - 24

8.9

25 - 29

8.2

30 - 34

6.4

35 - 39

5.2

40 - 44

3.6

45 - 49

2.8

50 - 54

3.0

55 - 59

2.6

60 - 64

2.0

65 - 69

1.4

70 - 74

1.0

75 - 79

0.9

80+

1.2

Appendix 2

Number of constituencies with voter's numbers more or less than constitutional limits for delimitation

Province

Constituency

June 2013 Voters' Roll

Above Maximum allowed [33566]

Below Minimum allowed [22378]

Percentage

of Mean

Bulawayo

Bulawayo

Bulawayo Central

27600

No

No

101

Bulawayo

Bulawayo East

24009

No

No

117

Bulawayo

Bulawayo South

21693

No

No

129

Bulawayo

Emakhandeni Entumbane

25400

No

No

110

Bulawayo

Lobengula

25008

No

No

112

Bulawayo

Luveve

24846

No

No

113

Bulawayo

Magwegwe

24024

No

No

116

Bulawayo

Makokoba

26195

No

No

107

Bulawayo

Nketa

24942

No

No

112

Bulawayo

Nkulumane

25899

No

No

108

Bulawayo

Pelandaba/Mpopoma

26505

No

No

106

Bulawayo

Pumula

24622

No

No

114

Total:

300,743

0

0


***

Harare

Harare

Budiriro

30890

No

No

91

Harare

Chitungwiza North

27717

No

No

101

Harare

Chitungwiza South

28390

No

No

99

Harare

Dzivarasekwa

22971

No

No

122

Harare

Epworth

35703

Yes

No

78

Harare

Glen Norah

20113

No

Yes

139

Harare

Glenview North

23183

No

No

121

Harare

Glenview South

24954

No

No

112

Harare

Harare Central

27595

No

No

101

Harare

Harare East

33180

No

No

84

Harare

Harare North

28681

No

No

98

Harare

Harare South

36214

Yes

No

77

Harare

Harare West

26297

No

No

106

Harare

Hatfield

28166

No

No

99

Harare

Highfield East

27777

No

No

101

Harare

Highfield West

23182

No

No

121

Harare

Kambuzuma

22096

No

Yes

127

Harare

Kuwadzana

22659

No

No

123

Harare

Kuwadzana East

22037

No

Yes

127

Harare

Mabvuku Tafara

28265

No

No

99

Harare

Mbare

43169

Yes

No

65

Harare

Mount Pleasant

30100

No

No

93

Harare

Mufakose

19818

No

Yes

141

Harare

Southerton

21714

No

Yes

129

Harare

St Mary's

26898

No

No

104

Harare

Sunningdale

20416

No

Yes

137

Harare

Warren Park

30481

No

No

92

Harare

Zengeza East

28576

No

No

98

Harare

Zengeza West

27717

No

No

101

Total:

788,959

3

6


***

Manicaland

Manicaland

Buhera Central

30972

No

No

90

Manicaland

Buhera North

27075

No

No

103

Manicaland

Buhera South

29638

No

No

94

Manicaland

Buhera West

30671

No

No

91

Manicaland

Chimanimani East

30466

No

No

92

Manicaland

Chimanimani West

28849

No

No

97

Manicaland

Chipinge Central

25370

No

No

110

Manicaland

Chipinge East

12940

No

Yes

216

Manicaland

Chipinge South

34880

Yes

No

80

Manicaland

Chipinge West

25178

No

No

111

Manicaland

Dangamvura Chikanga

30680

No

No

91

Manicaland

Headlands

27540

No

No

102

Manicaland

Makoni Central

25463

No

No

110

Manicaland

Makoni North

27439

No

No

102

Manicaland

Makoni South

31903

No

No

88

Manicaland

Makoni West

25520

No

No

110

Manicaland

Musikavanhu

26591

No

No

105

Manicaland

Mutare Central

25864

No

No

108

Manicaland

Mutare North

34391

Yes

No

81

Manicaland

Mutare South

33321

No

No

84

Manicaland

Mutare West

33877

Yes

No

83

Manicaland

Mutasa Central

28674

No

No

98

Manicaland

Mutasa North

32943

No

No

85

Manicaland

Mutasa South

29432

No

No

95

Manicaland

Nyanga North

32969

No

No

85

Manicaland

Nyanga South

31336

No

No

89

Total:

753,982

3

1


***

Mashonaland Central

Mashonaland Central

Bindura North

37387

Yes

No

75

Mashonaland Central

Bindura South

30940

No

No

90

Mashonaland Central

Guruve North

34747

Yes

No

81

Mashonaland Central

Guruve South

31294

No

No

89

Mashonaland Central

Mazowe Central

25581

No

No

109

Mashonaland Central

Mazowe North

23828

No

No

117

Mashonaland Central

Mazowe South

26234

No

No

107

Mashonaland Central

Mazowe West

24138

No

No

116

Mashonaland Central

Mbire

33751

Yes

No

83

Mashonaland Central

Mount Darwin East

32704

No

No

86

Mashonaland Central

Mount Darwin North

30923

No

No

90

Mashonaland Central

Mount Darwin South

24243

No

No

115

Mashonaland Central

Mount Darwin West

31205

No

No

90

Mashonaland Central

Muzarabani North

27708

No

No

101

Mashonaland Central

Muzarabani South

26662

No

No

105

Mashonaland Central

Rushinga

36156

Yes

No

77

Mashonaland Central

Shamva North

30827

No

No

91

Mashonaland Central

Shamva South

29380

No

No

95

Total:

537,708

4

0


***

Mashonaland East

Mashonaland East

Chikomba Central

24874

No

No

112

Mashonaland East

Chikomba East

21516

No

Yes

130

Mashonaland East

Chikomba West

35255

Yes

No

79

Mashonaland East

Goromonzi North

30380

No

No

92

Mashonaland East

Goromonzi South

36789

Yes

No

76

Mashonaland East

Goromonzi West

30086

No

No

93

Mashonaland East

Maramba Pfungwe

33658

Yes

No

83

Mashonaland East

Marondera Central

26888

No

No

104

Mashonaland East

Marondera East

28411

No

No

98

Mashonaland East

Marondera West

24572

No

No

114

Mashonaland East

Mudzi North

32516

No

No

86

Mashonaland East

Mudzi South

26037

No

No

107

Mashonaland East

Mudzi West

26987

No

No

104

Mashonaland East

Murewa North

28728

No

No

97

Mashonaland East

Murewa South

29367

No

No

95

Mashonaland East

Murewa West

29874

No

No

94

Mashonaland East

Mutoko East

26211

No

No

107

Mashonaland East

Mutoko North

29643

No

No

94

Mashonaland East

Mutoko South

30478

No

No

92

Mashonaland East

Seke

30575

No

No

91

Mashonaland East

Uzumba

33770

Yes

No

83

Mashonaland East

Wedza North

25872

No

No

108

Mashonaland East

Wedza South

21654

No

Yes

129

Total:

664,141

4

2

***

Mashonaland West

Mashonaland West

Chakari

25815

No

No

108

Mashonaland West

Chegutu East

32000

No

No

87

Mashonaland West

Chegutu West

27259

No

No

103

Mashonaland West

Chinhoyi

27477

No

No

102

Mashonaland West

Hurungwe Central

26144

No

No

107

Mashonaland West

Hurungwe East

30125

No

No

93

Mashonaland West

Hurungwe North

24829

No

No

113

Mashonaland West

Hurungwe West

26261

No

No

107

Mashonaland West

Kadoma Central

25873

No

No

108

Mashonaland West

Kariba

34431

Yes

No

81

Mashonaland West

Magunje

26428

No

No

106

Mashonaland West

Makonde

29604

No

No

94

Mashonaland West

Mhangura

31361

No

No

89

Mashonaland West

Mhondoro Mubaira

29545

No

No

95

Mashonaland West

Mhondoro Ngezi

26760

No

No

105

Mashonaland West

Muzvezve

27846

No

No

100

Mashonaland West

Norton

27793

No

No

101

Mashonaland West

Sanyati

23584

No

No

119

Mashonaland West

Zvimba East

27493

No

No

102

Mashonaland West

Zvimba North

26471

No

No

106

Mashonaland West

Zvimba South

25931

No

No

108

Mashonaland West

Zvimba West

26702

No

No

105

Total:

609,732

1

0


***

Masvingo

Masvingo

Bikita East

27954

No

No

100

Masvingo

Bikita South

29601

No

No

94

Masvingo

Bikita West

29357

No

No

95

Masvingo

Chiredzi East

26560

No

No

105

Masvingo

Chiredzi North

43298

Yes

No

65

Masvingo

Chiredzi South

26567

No

No

105

Masvingo

Chiredzi West

33657

Yes

No

83

Masvingo

Chivi Central

30057

No

No

93

Masvingo

Chivi North

25610

No

No

109

Masvingo

Chivi South

31751

No

No

88

Masvingo

Gutu Central

24344

No

No

115

Masvingo

Gutu East

23638

No

No

118

Masvingo

Gutu North

20533

No

Yes

136

Masvingo

Gutu South

24046

No

No

116

Masvingo

Gutu West

24755

No

No

113

Masvingo

Masvingo Central

26252

No

No

107

Masvingo

Masvingo North

23181

No

No

121

Masvingo

Masvingo South

27019

No

No

104

Masvingo

Masvingo Urban

35209

Yes

No

79

Masvingo

Masvingo West

22167

No

Yes

126

Masvingo

Mwenezi East

33278

No

No

84

Masvingo

Mwenezi West

41310

Yes

No

68

Masvingo

Zaka Central

26489

No

No

106

Masvingo

Zaka East

21645

No

Yes

129

Masvingo

Zaka North

28300

No

No

99

Masvingo

Zaka West

21119

No

Yes

132

Total:

727,697

4

4


***

Matabeleland North

Matabeleland North

Binga North

32955

No

No

85

Matabeleland North

Binga South

29645

No

No

94

Matabeleland North

Bubi

34368

Yes

No

81

Matabeleland North

Hwange Central

22723

No

No

123

Matabeleland North

Hwange East

23517

No

No

119

Matabeleland North

Hwange West

25056

No

No

112

Matabeleland North

Lupane East

25364

No

No

110

Matabeleland North

Lupane West

21368

No

Yes

131

Matabeleland North

Nkayi North

25755

No

No

109

Matabeleland North

Nkayi South

27337

No

No

102

Matabeleland North

Tsholotsho North

27363

No

No

102

Matabeleland North

Tsholotsho South

29874

No

No

94

Matabeleland North

Umguza

36825

Yes

No

76

Total:

362,150

2

1


***

Matabeleland South

Matabeleland South

Beitbridge East

30279

No

No

92

Matabeleland South

Beitbridge West

22552

No

No

124

Matabeleland South

Bulilima East

37330

Yes

No

75

Matabeleland South

Bulilima West

28043

No

No

100

Matabeleland South

Gwanda Central

24751

No

No

113

Matabeleland South

Gwanda North

22209

No

Yes

126

Matabeleland South

Gwanda South

23341

No

No

120

Matabeleland South

Insiza North

25516

No

No

110

Matabeleland South

Insiza South

24901

No

No

112

Matabeleland South

Mangwe

33963

Yes

No

82

Matabeleland South

Matobo North

23251

No

No

120

Matabeleland South

Matobo South

22487

No

No

124

Matabeleland South

Umzingwane

33331

No

No

84

Total:

351,954

2

1

***

Midlands

Midlands

Chirumanzu

26189

No

No

107

Midlands

Chirumanzu Zibagwe

30936

No

No

90

Midlands

Chiwandura

33506

No

No

83

Midlands

Gokwe

23741

No

No

118

Midlands

Gokwe Chireya

28966

No

No

97

Midlands

Gokwe Gumunyu

23828

No

No

117

Midlands

Gokwe Kabuyuni

29434

No

No

95

Midlands

Gokwe Kana

29478

No

No

95

Midlands

Gokwe Mapfungautsi

32288

No

No

87

Midlands

Gokwe Nembudziya

28601

No

No

98

Midlands

Gokwe Sengwa

32650

No

No

86

Midlands

Gokwe Sesame

24947

No

No

112

Midlands

Gweru Urban

29060

No

No

96

Midlands

Kwekwe Central

23139

No

No

121

Midlands

Mberengwa East

22051

No

Yes

127

Midlands

Mberengwa North

28777

No

No

97

Midlands

Mberengwa South

28506

No

No

98

Midlands

Mberengwa West

22235

No

Yes

126

Midlands

Mbizo

24558

No

No

114

Midlands

Mkoba

30819

No

No

91

Midlands

Redcliff

29134

No

No

96

Midlands

Shurugwi North

27051

No

No

103

Midlands

Shurugwi South

23097

No

No

121

Midlands

Silobela

27808

No

No

101

Midlands

Vungu

26175

No

No

107

Midlands

Zhombe

31172

No

No

90

Midlands

Zvishavane Ngezi

29038

No

No

96

Midlands

Zvishavane Runde

29864

No

No

Totals:

777,048

0

2


***

Overall Totals:

5,874,114

23

17

www.researchandadvocacyunit.org

Issued by The Research and Advocacy Unit [RAU], Harare, Zimbabwe, July 2 2013

Click here to sign up to receive our free daily headline email newsletter



 

Comments

If you come across comments that are injurious, defamatory, profane, off-topic or inappropriate; contain personal attacks or racist, sexist, homophobic, or other slurs, please report them and they will be removed.
 
 responses to this article

Rigged elections
Failure is a viable option in Zimbabwe.

Let's look at the facts:

A short while ago, Tsvangirai said "No reforms, no elections!".

Oppressive laws remain in place despite 4 years of GNU where Zanu PF were the minority . .more

by Peter Pan on July 08 2013, 11:58
Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Good work RAU.
>>"The compilation of the Voters' Roll is always a moving target. Old voters die and new voters are added. The Voters' Roll can thus never meet the ideal indicated at the outset. However, the gap between the ideal and the actual should be kept within . .more

by Barry Saayman on July 08 2013, 12:54
Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

LATEST ZIM-VOTER STATS = 6 082 302 VOTERS on TOBAIWA's ROLL...
SOURCE: Cathy Buckle's weekly newsletter - also on POLWEB this week - see her article "MORE VOTERS THAN PEOPLE".............

Oh yes, the ZANU number crunchers......
......are at it again.

3 000 000 real voters, plus
3 082 302 . .more

by John Austin, Zimbabwean & Former Head HARARE CUSTOMS & EXCISE on July 08 2013, 16:59
Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

NIKUV International projects office in Zimbabwe
Interesting to note that the Israel company NIKUV International projects has an office in Zimbabwe Office

13, Mount Road, Avondale, Harare
Email: ron@nipzim.com
Tel: +2634334465
Fax: +2634332904

by watikiritai on August 06 2013, 15:42
Find this comment inappropriate? Report it


Name
Subject
Comment