PARTY

ANC polling at 45% in Gauteng - Ipsos

Mari Harris
15 January 2014

Survey finds that DA support at 24.9% and the EFF at 7.3% in province, DA hold on WCape seems secure

Ipsos survey: PROVINCIAL political party support in a moderate voter turnout scenario

In a press release issued last week Ipsos stated that: "...voters intend, to a much greater degree than in previous elections, to split their votes - i.e. vote for different parties on the national and provincial ballots."

This analysis (overleaf) of provincial party support is based on the findings of the moderate voter turnout scenario, i.e. ALL eligible voters will not vote, but currently about 77% of eligible voters are registered to vote or indicated that they are likely to vote or desire to vote.  The views of this group as expressed in October - November 2013 are summarised overleaf.

Ipsos South Africa undertakes a Pulse of the PeopleTM study every six months.  A randomly selected sample of South Africans of voting age (18+) are asked which party they would support on the provincial level if there were an election the next day[1].  Respondents then fill in their own choices on a "ballot paper" - making this a secret vote.[2]

Provincial Party support amongst voters - in a moderate voter turnout scenario

POLITICAL PARTY 

EASTERN CAPE %

LIMPOPO %

NORTH WEST %

MPUMA-LANGA %

KZN %

FREE STATE %

GAUTENG %

NORTHERN CAPE %

WESTERN CAPE %

ANC

71,4

67,2

63,5

63,4

56,6

55,4

45,5

42,7

27

DA

8,6

7,4

6,4

9,1

11,2

24,9

22,6

45,9

54,1

EFF

4,6

11,4

12,7

6,8

0,3

2

7,3

1

1,8

ACDP

-

0,5

3,1

5

0,1

0,7

2,2

-

0,6

AGANG

1

3

-

4,6

0,5

-

3

-

1,2

COPE

2,5

0,4

-

0,8

0,4

7,3

2,2

5

1,6

IFP

-

1

1,9

0,8

9,8

-

0,2

-

-

AMP  

-

-

-

-

0,2

-

0,4

-

0,2

AZAPO

0,3

0,7

-

0,7

0,2

-

0,4

-

0,3

FF+

0,2

0,7

1,1

-

-

-

1,8

-

1,6

MF

-

-

-

-

0,9

-

-

-

-

NLP

-

-

2

-

-

-

-

-

-

PAC

-

0,5

-

-

-

-

0,4

-

-

UCDP

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

0,4

UDM

1

-

-

-

0,2

-

0,2

-

0,2

NFP

-

-

-

-

1,5

-

0,1

-

0,2

OTHER PARTY

0,7

-

-

5,7

1,3

-

3,5

-

0,4

Will not vote

1,6

2,8

4,7

-

3,8

-

2,4

-

1,3

Refused to answer

4,4

1,2

2,6

1,7

11

-

3,6

1,6

6,2

Don't know

2,7

3,2

1,1

1,4

2

9,5

3,8

2,2

2,5

Not registered to vote

1

-

0,9

 

 

0,2

0,4

1,6

0,4

The ANC has a clear majority in six of the nine provinces

The DA should keep its majority and control in the Western Cape

Both Gauteng and the Northern Cape will be heavily contested between the ANC and the DA (and other opposition parties who might hold the key to power sharing, especially in Gauteng)

The EFF can be the official opposition after the election in both Limpopo and North West

In KwaZulu-Natal, more than one in every ten (11%) refused to answer the question

Uncertainty is the highest in the Free State, with almost one in ten (9,5%) saying that they do not know which party to vote for.

Technical detail:

A total of 3564 personal face-to-face interviews were conducted with randomly selected adult South Africans. The interviews were done in the homes and home languages of respondents.  Trained quantitative fieldworkers from all population groups were responsible for the interviewing, which took place from 22 October to 21 November 2013.  Interviews were done all over the country, from metropolitan areas to deep rural areas. This methodology ensured that the results are representative of the views of the universe and that findings can be weighted and projected to the universe - i.e. South Africans 18 years and older.

Interviews were done using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and all results were collated and analysed in an aggregate format to protect the identity and confidentiality of respondents.

All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for the sample as a whole at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of 1,67%.  When analysing the results for smaller provinces (i.t.o. population size) separately, the margin of error will be higher for those provinces.

About Ipsos: The Home of Researchers

Ipsos is an innovative, entrepreneurial, client-focused organisation, providing research services to clients on a global basis. We set ourselves high standards and aim to work collaboratively in partnership with our teams in order to service our clients most effectively.

Ipsos is proud to be the only global market research company that is still controlled and operated by researchers. We aim to remain the natural home for intellectually curious and passionate researchers.

Our goal is simple: to be our clients' preferred research partners in our areas of specialisation, methodologies and processes. We want our clients to be proud and pleased to work with us - and we want each one of us to be proud and pleased to offer our clients high quality standards, efficiency and intelligence.

Footnotes:


[1] The question wording is: "If there were national elections tomorrow, which political party or organisation would you vote for? Please indicate your choice of party on a national level as well as on a provincial level."

[2] It is also important to keep in mind that this latest poll was undertaken before the death of ex-president Nelson Mandela and that the next poll planned for early 2014 will yield more contemporary results - thus this poll is for information and planning purposes and not intended to predict the results of the coming election.  Polls are valid for the time when the fieldwork is done and should always be evaluated against this background and within the margin of error.  

Statement issued by Mari Harris, Director - Public Affairs, Ipsos South Africa, January 15 2014

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Comments

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 responses to this article

Gauteng e-tolls the main reason for the decline
The ANC should stop being so arrogant and listen to the GP people. Away with e-tolls.
I will vote ANC nationally, but they wont get my vote in GP, that's guaranteed. 'Cos I wanna kill e-tolling.
I cant believe the ANC is prepared to give away the . .more

by Bhekuzulu on January 15 2014, 13:02
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I note
that the " refused to answer " category is 11% in KZN . Far above all other regions. Could it be that they are worried that the showerhead finally finds his machine gun ?

by Walter on January 15 2014, 13:17
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ANC arrogance in treating its supporters like sheep bites painfully.

@Bhekuzulu You hit the nail on the head mate! The ANC in Gauteng - and other provinces - will pay dearly for their arrogance towards their loyal supporters....

Did you observe that JuJu's EFF is the third most support after the cANCer and . .more

by Commentator. on January 15 2014, 13:55
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what rubbish
Who does these polls, who certified them?. This is the biggest rubbish in print this year. I mean it has to be. This is a white people wish list. It will never happen not in this lifetime. When the election results come and give overwhelming victory to . .more

by ANC LEADS THE REST FOLLOW on January 15 2014, 16:56
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@ANC leads.... etc etc

Baaaahhhh!!!

You are an excellent ANC supporter. Follow the leader and blindly accept what we are told.

What type of sheep are you? Dorper or Karakul?

Just thank your lucky stars that you do not reside in New Zealand or . .more

by Commentator on January 15 2014, 18:29
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Would it be hilarious
To see a DA and EFF coalition to run Gauteng.
Let's wait and see.

by Jzee on January 15 2014, 19:30
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Observations
NC - Not sure I trust the figures. But if the DA gain all the ID and COPE votes from 2009, and 6% of the vote that went to the ANC last time, then the DA will be in the 40s. NC was the smallest ANC majority in 2009. In 1994 the ANC won NC with a minority. . .more

by Anon on January 15 2014, 19:49
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@Bhekuzulu
If you vote tactically, and vote for the ANC at national level, and another party at provincial level. Be sure it's an unemotional choice and based simply on removing the ANC. If a party looks like it may jump into bed with the ANC at the first . .more

by Anon on January 15 2014, 20:19
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wake up to reality
Anybody who thinks the ANC is getting less than 50% is gauteng is walking blind. Wake up people, the coalition that the DA seeks will never happen. Look at previous elections nobody has ever came close to the movement of the people. What everyone should . .more

by ANC LEADS THE REST FOLLOW on January 15 2014, 21:22
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@ANC LEADS THE REST FOLLOW
"The DA has never had over 50% vote in the western cape. We do not support the ANC blindly as some might suggest."

... Reread the 2009 provincial election results. Then reconsider your comments on "blind support". The DA won 51.46% in the WC in . .more

by Anon on January 15 2014, 22:20
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expect a rigged election....
....wait for the drama to unfold folks.....

by onlooker on January 15 2014, 22:32
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it figures
The ANC in the N Cape is led by John Block, on trial for massive fraud and government tender abuse. It wont take much to push the N Cape and Gauteng into DA governance, which will truly bring a shake-up to the entire SA situation. The differences will . .more

by mudlark on January 15 2014, 23:09
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The future is blue.
In time to come South Africa is going to be hilarious.

by Paul C on January 16 2014, 08:41
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Vote EFF
Lets wait and see, methink EFF will suprise many!!!!!

by Bulala on January 16 2014, 08:42
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IEC -- next target for the eternal pessimists?
There will be a lot of tears in after the elections as ANC again trounce its opposition. The target will be the IEC by the eternal pessimists as they will be questioning its credentials.

we are in for interesting times!!

by Trotsky on January 16 2014, 09:06
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Lies, damned lies and statistics"
"A total of 3564 personal face-to-face interviews"
So each province had roughly 3,564 / 9 = 400 interviews.
While a sample size of 3,000 may be indicative of the entire country (ignoring that its demographics and politics are not uniformly spread) . .more

by Loudly South African on January 16 2014, 09:35
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@ANC LEADS THE REST FOLLOW
By the movement of the people do you mean a bowel movement. The ANC has done a few things to benefit the people, mainly housing, electricity and water. But how many of the houses built are still habitable? The ANC mothballed power stations and the . .more

by Anthony Caenazzo on January 16 2014, 10:13
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Vote for what is best for a united South Africa.
If you support the anc, you support the misery that this government has brought to South Africans to your eternal shame.

by Paul C on January 16 2014, 10:36
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Agreed.
If you support the anc, you support the misery that this government has brought to South Africans to your eternal shame.

by Paul C on January 16 2014, 10:40
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Northern Cape looks interesting
I hope it is a tue reflection...the best we can hope for is for WC and NC to go to an opposition. Gauteng would be the ultimate but me thinks it a pipe dream.
If the opposition can control two provinces and show improvements in both then we are . .more

by Ric on January 16 2014, 11:07
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peter pan world
These surveys are always conducted but have never been close to the truth... ANC getting 45% in Gauteng pigs will definately fly, the e-toll issue is only a problem to whites and the black middle class that have cars, the majority of people in Gauteng use . .more

by Khan on January 16 2014, 12:18
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@ Trotsky re IEC
The public have already heard about Pansygate involving corruption around IEC office buildings. Whilst the ANC may bring its machinery to whitewash this scandal and keep the matter from the courts for now, the fact is that we, the people have lost trust . .more

by Gdoyi on January 16 2014, 12:55
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Outcomes
The Writing is on the wall! *Y*
~~
...the moving hand having writ, moves on >>>>

by Gdoyi on January 16 2014, 13:02
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Voetsek!
The ANC has brought more wealth and buying power to the alien nation in our shores, than any fascist government they worship.Even in our poverty we shall die black,green and yellow, we truly feel fulfilled and we know we have done Gods work on . .more

by Muzi on January 16 2014, 15:45
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@Khan
The black middle class in Gauteng make up roughly 15% of the population. Do not underestimate their voting power.

by Chris on January 16 2014, 15:51
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Silent for too long.
South Africans no longer believe that there are any men and women of principle in the anc.



by Paul C on January 17 2014, 11:04
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Too late.
"it is now up to those men and women of principle in the ANC and the broader alliance to step forward and start taking to task those who besmirch his proud legacy."

South Africans no longer believe that there are any men and women of principle . .more

by Paul C on January 17 2014, 11:05
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