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The supporter profiles of SA's three largest parties - Ipsos

Mari Harris
05 February 2014

DA the most multi-racial of the parties, ANC support base 96% black African, EFF's 99%

Profiles of the supporters of the three biggest political parties in South Africa

Ipsos survey:  Profiles of the supporters of the three biggest political parties in South Africa

The question is often asked who the supporters of a specific political party are or, put slightly differently, how representative a particular political party is of the voters in the country.

An analysis of ELIGIBLE VOTERS in South Africa yields interesting results.  The question: "If there were national elections tomorrow, which political party or organisation would you vote for?" is used as the basis of this analysis. Overleaf the profiles of the supporters of the ANC, DA and EFF are compared with the profile of South Africans eligible to vote.1 These three parties were chosen based on the support for them expressed in a November 2013 Ipsos poll.

Ipsos South Africa undertakes a Pulse of the PeopleTM study every six months.  A randomly selected sample of South Africans of voting age are asked which party they would support on the national and provincial level if there were an election the next day.  Respondents then fill in their own choices on a "ballot paper" - making this a secret vote.

These profiles of the different political parties are meant to give insight into the composition of the group of supporters of each of the parties separately. ‘

South African population profile:

Some of the major differences and points of interest are summarised below.

ANC Voter Profile:

ANC supporters mirror the age profile of South Africans of voting age, whereas the DA supporters tend to be slightly older; however, the EFF have very few supporters over the age of 50.

Although supporters of all three parties are amongst those who receive grants from the government, almost three in ten of ANC supporters receive grants.

The ANC draws about a fifth of support from both KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, whereas only 4% of the party's supporters live in the Western Cape.  On the other hand, a quarter of DA supporters are from the Western Cape, but more than a third are living in Gauteng, a profile feature shared by the EFF (with 32% supporters in Gauteng).  Almost one in every three EFF supporters lives in Limpopo, Julius Malema's home province.

South African voters are fairly evenly split as far as gender is concerned, with female voters a slight majority.  This national profile is close to that of ANC voters.  DA voters are also evenly split between males and females.  However, two thirds of the supporters of the EFF are male.

In keeping with the general profile of South African voters, almost three in every ten ANC voters have Zulu as home language.  In contrast, the DA draws the majority of its support from Afrikaans and English speaking households, but it is very interesting that 18% of DA supporters speak one of the black languages as home language, negating the criticism often raised against the DA that it is a "white party". More than a quarter (27%) of EFF support comes from Sepedi speakers, but the party also does well under Zulu and Xhosa speakers.

DA Supporter Profile:

About half of DA supporters are working (either full-time or part-time), whereas those who are unemployed and looking for work are more prevalent amongst the ANC and EFF supporters.

In keeping with the age profile, almost two-thirds of DA supporters are married or are living together, whereas three quarters of EFF supporters are single.

Coming back to what was said earlier about home language, a fifth (20%) of DA supporters are black, whereas the vast majority of ANC (96%) and EFF (99%) supporters are black.  In fact, the DA is the only party out of the three drawing support from all main population groups in South Africa.

Whereas the majority of supporters of all three parties have either completed their school education or have some high school education, a higher proportion of DA supporters (25%) than those of other parties (9% of ANC supporters and 10% of EFF supporters) have post-matric education.

DA supporters are the most "urbanised", with about three quarters living in metropolitan areas, cities or large towns.  On the other hand, about a third of ANC and EFF supporters are living in metropolitan areas (mirroring the country's population distribution), while about half of the supporters of both of these parties live in rural areas.

In line with the  higher proportions of working supporters as well as a higher education profile, DA supporters tend to be more affluent than those of the other two parties.  However, substantial proportions of supporters of all three parties refused to share information about their household income.

EFF Supporter Profile:

Technical detail:

A total of 3564 personal face-to-face interviews were conducted with randomly selected adult South Africans. The interviews were done in the homes and home languages of respondents.  Trained quantitative fieldworkers from all population groups were responsible for the interviewing, which took place from 22 October to 21 November 2013.  Interviews were done all over the country, from metropolitan areas to deep rural areas. This methodology ensured that the results are representative of the views of the universe and that findings can be weighted and projected to the universe - i.e. South Africans 18 years and older.

Interviews were done using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and all results were collated and analysed in an aggregate format to protect the identity and confidentiality of respondents.

All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for the sample as a whole at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of 1,67%.  When analysing the results for smaller provinces (i.t.o. population size) separately, the margin of error will be higher for those provinces.

About Ipsos: The Home of Researchers

Ipsos is an innovative, entrepreneurial, client-focused organisation, providing research services to clients on a global basis. We set ourselves high standards and aim to work collaboratively in partnership with our teams in order to service our clients most effectively.

Ipsos is proud to be the only global market research company that is still controlled and operated by researchers. We aim to remain the natural home for intellectually curious and passionate researchers.

Our goal is simple: to be our clients' preferred research partners in our areas of specialisation, methodologies and processes. We want our clients to be proud and pleased to work with us - and we want each one of us to be proud and pleased to offer our clients high quality standards, efficiency and intelligence.  

Footnote:

1 Polls are valid for the time when the fieldwork is done and should always be evaluated against this background, within the margin of error.

Issued by Ipsos, February 5 2014

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Comments

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 responses to this article

Very useful infographics
No real surprises, although EFF seems to draw a lot of support from black dudes who either can't pull chicks or prefer to pump n dump.

by Realist on February 05 2014, 21:47
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@Realist
Well put, sir! I could not improve on that phraseology.

by CA Bez on February 06 2014, 01:23
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representivity
Very interesting. The DA is thus the home of the rainbow nation. It's the only major political party in SA with any significant ethnic diversity. It's therefore far more representative of the nation than the others are, and far less likely to become . .more

by mudlark on February 06 2014, 02:08
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The worst infographics I have ever seen
Seriously.

by ........ on February 06 2014, 03:27
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very interesting
ANC - 94% black languages 4% English 2% Afrikaans
DA - 18 % black languages 32% English 50% Afrikaans
SA - 75% black languages 11% English 14% Afrikaans

So there we have it - the ANC is a racially biased party for one skin colour . .more

by Sad Days on February 06 2014, 06:57
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Interesting fact
Another interesting fact that makes me happy is that EFF is ranked among the biggest party in South Africa after just a short time(3rd), for those who underestimate EFF do so in your own peril, atleast we as black people we have the party that articulate . .more

by Fana on February 06 2014, 07:15
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@ Sad Days
There were 569 protests across the country, about 122 turned violent, over the past 3 months. I've lost track of the number of people killed.

The bonfires of discontent. Tick, tock. Tick, tock.

by True Blue on February 06 2014, 07:22
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IPSOS SURVEY
WHY ARE THERE NO SWAZI SPEAKING PEOPLE IN YOUR SURVEY SINCE I KNOW WE HAVING ELEVEN OFFICIAL LANGUAGES IN SOUTH AFRICA

by concerned on February 06 2014, 08:31
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ANC STATS VERSUS THE REST!
can someone please send this to MARIUS FRANSMAN in a brown envelope,and educate him,is he aware ? of the fact he has already lost the election.

by KEVIN ALDRIDGE on February 06 2014, 08:35
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The writing is on the wall...
The anc is, and now we have proof, dying...

Crumble, crumble, anc.

RNIP

by Paul C on February 06 2014, 08:39
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Party data
I wonder what the profile of Agang supporters is. It is a pity they cannot, or will not, participate in the discourse of the future South Africa. It also seems that we still vote largely along tribal lines.

by umhlabogas on February 06 2014, 08:40
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No percentage for ANC by Vendas
This report is flawed there is no way there are no Vendas supporting ANC, Period!

by Hangwi on February 06 2014, 08:50
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@what can we do
If white ppl do not want to support/join ANC because they believe black ppl are useless what can we do? white ppl do not believe in black leaders, white ppl did not even vote for Mandela, DA is very lucky the deal with AgansSA did not work, coz DA was . .more

by Former cadre on February 06 2014, 08:54
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Democrat.
President Barack Obama said:

"Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we have been waiting for. We are the change that we seek".

by Paul C on February 06 2014, 09:04
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data
Afrikaans ranks high with DA - is there a strong Nat influence. It would be typical of them to slyly hide behind the scenes while promoting their old ways under the guise of language and group protection while really only interested in . .more

by greg on February 06 2014, 09:16
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Black people embrace diversity
One way of looking at this is that blacks are willing to consider and vote for other parties even those that are traditionally white. White people on the other hand do not have the confidence or willingness to vote for a predominantly black . .more

by mtima on February 06 2014, 09:35
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P
There is no one capable of bringing this cesspool of scum to order - shame

by Misanthrope on February 06 2014, 09:43
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Siswati
This survey does not include siswati as an official language.Siyadzeleleka phela la. I feel left our and discriminated...let me consult with my lawyer on possibilities to sue...

by Dumisa on February 06 2014, 09:54
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Siswati
This survey does not include siswati as an official language.Siyadzeleleka phela la. I feel left our and discriminated...let me consult with my lawyer on possibilities to sue...

by Dumisa on February 06 2014, 09:55
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Siswati
This survey does not include siswati as an official language.Siyadzeleleka phela la. I feel left our and discriminated...let me consult with my lawyer on possibilities to sue...

by Dumisa on February 06 2014, 09:55
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Who Sponsors this Nonsense
I bet you. We will soon here that the mystery donors of the DAgang fiasco are the sponsors of such meaningless research. Would like to see the same analysis pos elections. White people believing their own lies.

by Black and Proud on February 06 2014, 11:11
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The ANC lost their non black vote because they are incompetent
It is important to remember that the majority of South Africans voted in a referendum for the New South Africa - people wanted a non racial, competent government in power, determined not by skin colour but by the ability to do the job.

Many . .more

by Sad Days on February 06 2014, 11:20
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Another interesting point
Both the EFF and ANC get half their support from the rural areas.

The DA only get 10% of their support from these rural areas.

These are the uneducated voters that the ANC love and they are obviously in no rush to educate them any time . .more

by Sad days on February 06 2014, 11:35
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important message here
whites only vote for the DA, they vote along racial lines. no single black should vote the DA

by kolobe on February 06 2014, 11:58
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@ Sad days on February 06 2014, 11:35
>>"An interesting question is, in these areas, will a person living in a traditional village be prepared to vote independently, or will they vote for who their Chief tells them to vote for."

In my view the worst racist voters in this country are . .more

by Barry Saayman on February 06 2014, 12:23
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@ Sad Days on February 06 2014, 06:57
>>"Afrikaans ranks high with DA."

Afrikaans is not "white".

Afrikaans is the first language of 70% - 80% of so-called coloureds (3.4 million) and about 60% of whites (2.7 million).

Most so-called Coloureds (70% - 80%) speak . .more

by Barry Saayman on February 06 2014, 12:25
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what are you going on about Barry
Hate speech ? Huh ... !

A few points ... lovely people Afrikaners ... I actually married one in fact

Helen made a point to learn Afrikaans fluently, along with Xhosa, as she rose to power

There is nothing stopping Afrikaners . .more

by Sad Days on February 06 2014, 12:52
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@Sad Days
Whites have never voted for the ANC or any other black party in their numbers. This was the case even during Nelson Mandela's first term, so my conclusion which I suspect is correct is that white people simply do not trust a black person to govern. . .more

by mtima on February 06 2014, 12:55
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The Sad World of Sad Days
Like so many DA flag-wavers, Sadness believes that once the great unwashed have been educated, they will vote DA. Presumably, Sad means educated about how corrupt the cadres are, know how to a balance sheet and can pronounce "Chardonnay" correctly. In . .more

by Realist on February 06 2014, 12:56
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Whites not voting for Black leaders
White people will vote for Black leaders if there were any credible ones, Nelson included. Nelson had very little political support from whites because they knew he was a communist.

by Joe on February 06 2014, 13:38
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Sad Days on February 06 2014, 12:52
>>"A few points ... lovely people Afrikaners. There is nothing stopping Afrikaners joining the DA and moving up their ranks."

If this is in fact your generalised view why did you initially opined that "(i)t would be typical of them (Afrikaans . .more

by Barry Saayman on February 06 2014, 14:22
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@ mtima on February 06 2014, 12:55
>>"Whites have never voted for the ANC...so my conclusion which I suspect is correct is that white people simply do not trust a black person to govern."

The official ANC Strategy and Tactics document is clear. Whites are regarded as the enemy . .more

by Barry Saayman on February 06 2014, 17:30
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@ Barry Saayman
I do not expect white people to vote for the ANC, I was highlighting that blacks unlike white people do vote for parties that are not predominantly black. However using your logic, the question can be asked how do you expect black people to vote for white . .more

by mtima on February 06 2014, 17:50
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@ Greg: Afrikaans ranks high with DA - ...strong Nat influence.
This is a scewed deduction. It's more likely that most 'coloured' people who, demographically, are the largest Afrikaansspeaking group in RSA, vote DA.

by Elle on February 06 2014, 18:09
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@Mtima
I like you. You are very sensible.

by Frank Talk on February 06 2014, 20:10
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The thing is mtima on February 06 2014, 12:55 THE FUKKUPS GO BACK 20 years
Arms deal?

Trying to disarm elderly whites?

Kader Asmal and Mary Metvalfe - a sewing teacher, FFS! - 'transforming' education? Selling out to SADTU? That was on Mandela's watch. My aunt was one of the tens of thousands of white . .more

by Brett on February 06 2014, 20:43
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@ Barry Saayman
Damn Barry I thought we are living in 2014, not 1903. The English speakers are here to stay, The ANC forms the Government and will for several Elections to come. We live in a South Africa that has moved on since 1994. There is a town, is it in the Free . .more

by Mervyco on February 06 2014, 23:33
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@Barry
I really don't know what you are going on about ... I said nothing in the first post about Afrikaners except in the stats showing that Afrikaner speakers in the DA number 50%. You seem to have an anti English speakers chip on your shoulder.

I . .more

by Sad Days on February 07 2014, 06:27
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@Barry Butthurt by the Boer War
Jealousy makes you nasty.

by South One on February 07 2014, 13:38
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P
Applicable to SA

Shakespeare’s Hamlet, who suffered from melancholia, expressed the sentiment – “how weary, stale, flat and unprofitable seem to me the workings of this world. It is an unweeded garden and things rank and gross in nature possess . .more

by Misanthrope on February 10 2014, 07:03
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@mtima
Actually @mtima, the number of black people who vote DA is broadly comparable to the number of white people who vote ANC: roughly 5%. But because black people are much larger population group, the whites get "drowned out" in the ANC, while the relatively . .more

by Chris on March 15 2014, 23:03
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