IPSOS SOUTH AFRICA, JOHANNESBURG: 3 MAY 2024
The pivotal role of voter turnout in shaping the 2024 election outcome
Looking at possible turnout scenarios, a lower voter turnout is definitely to the benefit of the ANC, as reported in previous Ipsos press releases about this topic. In fact, turnout will probably be the key variable in the election on 29 May 2024.
As 29 May approaches, with widespread speculation surrounding the potential performance of political parties in the upcoming national and provincial elections, the pivotal determinant of success rests on getting voters to the polling stations. Those parties with the ability to effectively mobilise their voter base and inspire supporters to cast their ballots may hold an advantage over those that fail to engage their supporters and neglect to prioritise voter turnout initiatives.
To develop realistic voter turnout scenarios, Ipsos employs a multifaceted approach that considers key indicators such as interest in politics, desire to vote, stated intention to vote, and depth of party loyalty. By analysing responses to this series of carefully crafted survey questions, Ipsos' proprietary algorithm generates three distinct turnout scenarios. The latest data reveals an uptick in voter engagement compared to the previous turnout projections, which were based on fieldwork conducted in December 2023. (Findings available in the Ipsos Press Release dated 6 February 2024, Support for Political Parties).
The most recent voter turnout models, based on the latest calculations and projections, outline three potential scenarios, with projected turnout ranges edging slightly higher across all three scenarios compared to the estimates published earlier.
Should the current trends hold, a low voter turnout scenario – in which only the most committed voters participate – could see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls. In a medium turnout scenario, the model indicates that the voter turnout rate may be between 57% and 59%. On the high end, Ipsos’ projections suggest that as many as 74% to 76% of registered voters could cast their ballots if voter enthusiasm reaches its peak.
It is probably unrealistic to expect such a high voter turnout, due to the current sentiment among voters, and the modelling shows that a low voter turnout will be to the advantage of the ANC – pushing the ruling party closer to achieving 50% of the vote and implying that the ANC will need a smaller party as a coalition partner to form a future government.
About the study
· This press release is based on the views of 2,545 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by trained Ipsos interviewers in the homes and home languages of respondents.
· Interviews were conducted from 9 March 2024 to 15 April 2024.
· A scientific process of multi-stage stratified random selection distributed interviews in all areas of the county, including deep rural areas. This methodology ensured that the results are representative of the views of the universe (South Africans eligible to vote) and that findings can be weighted and projected to the universe.
· Those registered to vote were filtered from the total sample and separately weighted – using the voter registration figures from the IEC (Independent Electoral Commission).
· Trained quantitative fieldworkers were responsible for the interviewing and CAPI (Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing) was used.
· All results were collated and analysed in an aggregate format to protect the identity and confidentiality of respondents.
· Using a ballot paper like that used in an election, respondents had to “vote for” their choice of political party. The question specified that they needed to consider their choice as if the election were happening the next day.
· All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for this sample at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of plus or minus 1.9%.
About Ipsos
· Ipsos is one of the largest market research companies in the world, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.
· Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers, or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.
· Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.
· Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
· ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
Statement issued by Mari Harris, Ipsos, 3 May 2024
