Election Tracking Poll
In line with the IRR’s objective to become an authority on political market research, the Institute has undertaken a fifth survey of the electoral landscape to supplement surveys carried out in September 2018, December 2018, February 2019 and April 2019.
Our May Election Poll was in the field between 27 April and 4 May 2019. It was structured as a Tracking Poll, using a Five-Day Moving Average and it covered the national ballot, as well as the provincial ballot in Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. For each, we have presented the “Daily Track”, so that you can see, on a daily basis, how party support moved leading up to Saturday 4 May, the final day on which the IRR Tracking Poll ran.
The full details can be found in the accompanying edition of The Criterion Report.
As of 4 May 2019, the last day on which the IRR tracking poll ran, the results suggest the following:
- The ANC could get less than 55%, depending on the last four days, turnout and taking into account the margin of error.
- This is the most fluid national election to date, in particular with regards to the ANC and EFF, who have traded support one way and the other among around five to eight percent of black voters since September.
- Gauteng is set to be hung, barring a last-minute surge from the ANC.
- The DA should hold the Western Cape relatively comfortably, despite its recent difficulties in the province.
- KwaZulu-Natal could be hung, depending on a range of factors, including a last-minute ANC surge, turnout and taking into account the margin of error.
- The DA is marginally up among black voters, but down among white voters, from 2014. The ANC is significantly down among Coloured voters from 2014.
- The EFF is up significantly relative to 2014. This will set up an interesting dynamic between that party and the ANC over the next five years, for which, as of 4 May, it appears Gauteng will be the first test.
This survey is not a prediction. It is not possible to precisely predict the election result. We are, however, confident our data is accurate for the period under review. Thus, all this survey can tell you is the nature of the electoral market in the week preceding the election, and suggest where some of the trend lines are headed, with four days to go until the election. As you will see, there is some fluidity in the market, and the last few days will likely see some small movement. If history is a guide, it will be towards the bigger parties. From these numbers, anyone can draw a prediction should they wish. We leave the art of prediction up to you, the public.
Statement issued by Gareth van Onselen, IRR Head of Politics and Governance, 6 May 2019