Survey of Voter Opinion
South Africa – October/November 2022
THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION – SABI STRATEGY GROUP
Methodology
- Nationally representative phone survey of South Africa.
- Only registered voters.
- N = 1000.
- Margin of Error: 4%.
- Fieldwork: 27 October – 10 November 2022.
- 15-minute questionnaire.
- Weighted to national statistics on gender, age, province and race.
2024 GENERAL ELECTION
1
76,9 of respondents indicate that they will ‘definitely vote’ in Election 2024
“Thinking ahead to the next general election, how certain are you that you will vote?”
2
How those who definitely vote would cast their ballots
“Thinking ahead to the next general election in 2024 who will you cast your vote for?”
GOVERNANCE
3
Voters believe that the Western Cape is the best-governed province
“Which province do you believe is governed the best?”
4
More believe Cape Town is the best-governed city
“Which metro do you believe is governed the best?” 
5
On governance, the 24% voting gap between the ANC and the DA narrows to just 5,9%
“Which party do you believe is most effective at governing?”
6
One in ten ANC voters believe the DA governs better than the ANC
“Which party do you believe is most effective at governing? (ANC voters only)”
7
Most respondents believe that government officials earn too much
“Do you think that government officials earn too much, the right amount or too little?”
8
Over three quarters of respondents want the private sector to help provide key services
“Do you think that the private sector should be allowed to participate in providing services like energy, port, rail?”
Context & Issues
9
80% of respondents surveyed feel that South Africa is going in the wrong direction
“In general, are things in South Africa going in the right direction or in the wrong direction? And do you strongly feel that we're going in the (right / wrong) direction, or only somewhat?”
10
66% of ANC voters feel South Africa is going in the wrong direction
“In general, are things in South Africa going in the right direction or in the wrong direction? And do you strongly feel that we're going in the (right / wrong) direction, or only somewhat? (ANC voters only)”
11
Unemployment/Jobs and Corruption are cited as the biggest problems facing South AFrica
“What do you think is the biggest problem facing South Africa?”
12
Over 50% blame the ANC government for the problems facing South Africa
“Who or what is most responsible for this problem?”
Coalitions
13
Over three quarters of respondents would welcome a coalition government
“Would you be happy to see a coalition of political parties govern South Africa?”
14
Respondents favour a coalition government excluding the ANC, or favour one between the ANC and DA
“Which coalition would you prefer to run the country?”
DEMOCRACY SENTIMENT
15
Most respondents believe multiparty democracy is the best form of government
“What is the most effective form of government?”
Ukraine
16
74.3% believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must be condemned
“How do you view Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?”
17
74% of ANC voters believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must be condemned
“How do you view Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? (ANC voters)”
18
80% believe South Africa should support a country invaded by its neighbour
“If a sovereign, democratic country is invaded by its neighbour, which one of the following should South Africa do?”
19
Western countries are viewed far more favourably than Russia or China
“If you were to leave South Africa, which country would you choose to go to?”
SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
- ANC support will fall from 57.5% in the 2019 election to 47.6% in 2024
- The DA’s support will rise from 20.8% in 2019 to 24% while the EFF will fall marginally to 10.7%
- The Western Cape and Cape Town are viewed as the best governed province and city
- On governance, the 24% voting gap between the ANC and the DA narrows to 5.9%
- Over three quarters of respondents want the private sector to help provide key services
- 80% of voters and 66% of ANC voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction
- Unemployment and corruption are cited as the country’s biggest problems
- Over 50% blame the ANC government for the problems facing South Africa
- Over three quarters of respondents would welcome a coalition government
- 74.3% - and 74% of ANC voters - believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must be condemned
- 80% believe South Africa should support a country invaded by its neighbour
- Western countries are viewed far more favourably than Russia or China
***
Comment by Dr Greg Mills, Director of The Brenthurst Foundation
“The results of this survey clearly show that South Africans are ready for change. They place the blame for what they cite as their major problems - joblessness, corruption and load shedding – squarely on the shoulders of the ANC government of the last three decades.
“While more will vote for the ANC than any other party, it is revealing that the vast majority want to see a coalition governing South Africa. They see the country in crisis and want leaders to work together to fix it.
“Voters are also not buying the well-worn scapegoats for the country’s present problems – not many view apartheid and racism as factors in contemporary politics.
“And they don’t share the ANC’s nostalgia for the Soviet Union. It is striking how many believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be strongly condemned.
“South Africa is on the cusp of change, but it is up to political leaders to listen to voters and start working on ways to fix the country. The parties that deliver real results on the ground will succeed.
Thank You
