Political State of Play in South Africa in April 2024
10 April 2024
This report tracks the current national political state of play in South Africa in April 2024. It does so via a survey of 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the Foundation during April of 2024. That survey had a margin of error of 2.2%.
Only parties that polled above or very close to this margin of error are identified by name in this report. The data in the report is not a forecast of the May 29 election result, but rather a snapshot of the likely current position. Readers must be aware that this position is very different from that of just 12 months ago and that equally significant changes to the position may play out over the next seven weeks.
If general elections were taking place today, which party would you vote for?
National ballot paper
|
|
65% turnout |
60% turnout |
|
ANC |
37 |
38 |
|
DA |
25 |
25 |
|
MK Party |
13 |
14 |
|
EFF |
11 |
11 |
|
IFP |
5 |
5 |
|
FF+ |
2 |
2 |
|
ACDP |
2 |
2 |
|
ActionSA |
2 |
2 |
|
Other |
3 |
1 |
TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS
The data in this report makes sense. Through much of 2022 and 2023 the Foundation polled ANC support at near 50%. That figure is now down by roughly the same margin that the MKP has grown. Support for the DA and the EFF are all roughly in line with polling numbers of the past 36 months. In earlier studies, going back to 2022, the Foundation found that up to a third of voters who were then intending to vote for the ANC were vulnerable to departing the party. The Foundation had also identified that Mr Zuma, now the leader of the MKP, had very strong favourability scores in key political constituencies. The success of the MKP to date should therefore not be read as a surprising or unanticipated development. Mr Zuma's party must, however, still settle and it remains to be seen whether it can hold its current levels of support.
Statement issued by the Social Research Foundation, 10 April 2024
