THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

THE 2011 LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DA'S PERFORMANCE

SUMMARY: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

Democratic Alliance growth in the 2011 Local Government Elections

TABLE 1.1: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: National and Provincial Growth

Nationally, the DA increased its percentage share of the vote from 16.3 % in 2006, to 24 % in 2011, an increase of 7.7 percentage points.

Outside of first-time parties, the Democratic Alliance was the only established party to grow its support in 2011 local government elections.

Nationally, in absolute terms, the DA increased its actual votes from 1 611 131 votes in 2006, to 3 216 784 votes in 2011, an increase of approximately 1.6 million votes or 100 %. This is some 280 000 more votes than the DA secured in the 2009 national election. The DA is the only party to achieve this feat. 

The DA's increase in percentage and absolute terms makes in the second biggest party in South Africa and the second biggest percentage obtained by a political party in South Africa, post 1994 (its 24 % is an improvement on the 21.6 % it secured in the 2000 local government elections).

Provincially, the DA increased its percentage share of the vote and its votes in absolute terms in every province. It is the only party to do this.

Provincially, the DA's percentage of the vote increased in the provinces by a minimum of 1.2 percentage points [KZN] and a maximum of 18 % [WC].

In every single province the DA secured more votes than it did in the 2009 national and provincial election. In seven provinces it doubled or more than doubled its support from 2006 in absolute numbers. It is the only party to do this.

TABLE 1.2: AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: National and Provincial Growth

Nationally, the ANC's percentage of the vote decreased, from 65.7 % in 2006, to 62.8 % in 2011, a decrease of 3 percentage points.

Nationally, the ANC grew in absolute terms, by a total of 1.4 million votes.

Provincially, the ANC decreased its percentage share of the vote in every province with the exception of KwaZulu-Natal, where it grew by 9.5 percentage points.

In all nine provinces, in absolute terms, the ANC won fewer votes than it did in the 2009 national and provincial elections.

Nationally, the number of votes cast for the ANC was 3.6 million fewer than in 2009.

TABLE 2.1: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Metros

The Democratic Alliance increased its percentage share of the vote and its vote in absolute terms, in every metropolitan council, the only party to have achieved this.

The DA won the City of Cape Town with 63 % of the vote and with 682 928 votes.

The DA's biggest increase in percentage terms was in Cape Town City where it increased its share of the vote from 42.3 % in 2006, to 63.0 % in 2011, an increase of 18.9 percentage points. Its smallest increase was in Ekurhuleni where it increased from 25.9 % in 2006, to 30.1 % in 2011, 4.2 percentage points.

In absolute terms, the DA grew in every metro. The DA's biggest increase in absolute terms was in Tshwane where it increased its total votes from 132 528 in 2006, to 559 286 in 2011, an increase of 426 758 votes.

Significantly, in almost every instance, the DA secured more votes in a metro in 2011 than it did in the 2009 national election, the only exception being in eThekwini.

In a number of metros, the DA's increase in absolute terms exceeded 100%: in Nelson Mandela Bay, it grew by 114 %, in  Manguang, by 126 %, In Johannesburg, by 100 %;  in Tshwane, by 322 %; in eThekwini, by 109 % and in the City of Cape Town by 123 % [versus its performance in the 2006 elections]

TABLE 2.2: AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: Metros

The ANC's support decreased in percentage terms in six out of the eight metros, the only exceptions being Ekurhuleni and eThekwini, where it increased its support in percentage and absolute terms.

In two metros, Buffalo City and Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC's support decreased in absolute and percentage terms.

In seven of the eight metros, the ANC received less support in absolute terms than it did in the 2009 national and provincial elections, the only exception being eThekwini.

In four metros, Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg, Tshwane and Cape Town, the ANC's support registered below 60 %.

The ANC's biggest loss in support was in Nelson Mandela Bay, where its support dropped by 15.5 percentage points.

TABLE 3: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Councils where the DA Governs Outright

Prior to the 2011 local government elections, the Democratic Alliance governed six municipalities outright and thirteen in total [seven in coalition with other parties]. In the 2011 elections the DA won thirteen municipalities outright, as well as four district councils, for a total of seventeen councils governed outright by the DA, 18 if one included the City of Cape Town. The four District Councils controlled outright by the DA are:  The West Coast, Cape Winelands, Overberg and Eden.

Four of these municipalities were under the ANC's control prior to the elections, as were two District Councils. In total the DA won outright control over six councils previously under the ANC's control.

The DA retained outright control over the six municipalities it controlled with a majority prior to the 2011 elections [Midvaal, Baviaans, Swartland, Theewaterskloof, Overstrand and Mossel Bay] and, in every case, increased it percentage share of the vote and the number of votes its received in absolute terms.

The DA controls municipalities outright in three provinces: The Eastern Cape, Gauteng and the Western Cape.

TABLE 4: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Councils where the DA is the Largest Party

There are eleven municipalities, in addition to those the DA controls outright, where the DA may be able to govern in coalition with other parties, pending the outcome of discussions. Every discussion is dependent on the DA's capacity in that municipality to deliver effective coherent government and that any coalition partner shares the same values and ideals.

The eleven are: Matzikama; Witzenberg; Langeberg; Cape Agulhas; Hessequa; Oudtshoorn; Bitou; Laingsburg; Karoo Hoogland; Hantam; Nama Khoi

 Should those discussions all result in coalition governments in those municipalities, together with the 18 municipalities the DA governs outright, it would govern 29 councils in total. That is more than double the amount [13] the DA governed outright or in coalition prior to the 2011 election.

Of those nine councils seven were previously controlled by the ANC.

Of those 26 councils, in total, 13 were previously governed by the ANC.

TABLE 5: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Growth amongst Black Voters

The DA increased its support amongst black voters from approximately 1 % in 2009 to approximately 5 % in 2011. That 5 % translates into approximately 20 % of the DA's support base. In turn, that 20% represents between 500 000 and 600 000 black voters.

TABLE 6: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE: Wards won by the DA off the ANC

The Democratic Alliance won at least 133 wards from the ANC. At least ten of those wards contain an entirely or majority black voting population. A breakdown of those wards is as follows: KwaZulu-Natal: 8; Mpumalanga: 5; North West: 1; Limpopo: 3; Gauteng: 18; Free State: 4; Northern Cape: 25; Eastern Cape: 26; Western Cape: 43

The DA lost six wards to the ANC across the country.

TABLE 1.1: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

National and Provincial Growth

ANALYSIS:

Nationally, the DA increased its percentage share of the vote from 16.3 % in 2006, to 24 % in 2011, an increase of 7.7 percentage points.

Outside of first-time parties, the Democratic Alliance was the only established party to grow its support in 2011 local government elections.

Nationally, in absolute terms, the DA increased its actual votes from 1 611 131 votes in 2006, to 3 216 784 votes in 2011, an increase of approximately 1.6 million votes or 100 %. This is some 280 000 more votes than the DA secured in the 2009 national election. The DA is the only party to achieve this feat. 

The DA's increase in percentage and absolute terms makes in the second biggest party in South Africa and the second biggest percentage obtained by a political party in South Africa, post 1994 (its 24 % is an improvement on the 21.6 % it secured in the 2000 local government elections).

Provincially, the DA increased its percentage share of the vote and its votes in absolute terms in every province. It is the only party to do this.

Provincially, the DA's percentage of the vote increased in the provinces by a minimum of 1.2 percentage points [KZN] and a maximum of 18 % [WC].

In every single province the DA secured more votes than it did in the 2009 national and provincial election. In seven provinces it doubled or more than doubled its support from 2006 in absolute numbers. It is the only party to do this.

TABLE 1.2: AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS

National and Provincial Growth

ANALYSIS:

Nationally, the ANC's percentage of the vote decreased, from 65.7 % in 2006, to 62.8 % in 2011, a decrease of 3 percentage points.

Nationally, the ANC grew in absolute terms, by a total of 1.4 million votes.

Provincially, the ANC decreased its percentage share of the vote in every province with the exception of KwaZulu-Natal, where it grew by 9.5 percentage points.

In all nine provinces, in absolute terms, the ANC won fewer votes than it did in the 2009 national and provincial elections.

Nationally, the number of votes cast for the ANC was 3.6 million fewer than in 2009.

TABLE 2.1: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

Metros

ANALYSIS:

The Democratic Alliance increased its percentage share of the vote and its vote in absolute terms, in every metropolitan council, the only party to have achieved this.

The DA won the City of Cape Town with 63 % of the vote and with 682 928 votes.

The DA's biggest increase in percentage terms was in Cape Town City where it increased its share of the vote from 42.3 % in 2006, to 63.0 % in 2011, an increase of 18.9 percentage points. Its smallest increase was in Ekurhuleni where it increased from 25.9 % in 2006, to 30.1 % in 2011, 4.2 percentage points.

In absolute terms, the DA grew in every metro. The DA's biggest increase in absolute terms was in Tshwane where it increased its total votes from 132 528 in 2006, to 559 286 in 2011, an increase of 426 758 votes.

Significantly, in almost every instance, the DA secured more votes in a metro in 2011 than it did in the 2009 national election, the only exception being in eThekwini.

In a number of metros, the DA's increase in absolute terms exceeded 100%: in Nelson Mandela Bay, it grew by 114 %, in  Manguang, by 126 %, In Johannesburg, by 100 %;  in Tshwane, by 322 %; in eThekwini, by 109 % and in the City of Cape Town by 123 % [versus its performance in the 2006 elections]

TABLE 2.2: AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS

Metros

ANALYSIS:

The ANC's support decreased in percentage terms in six out of the eight metros, the only exceptions being Ekurhuleni and eThekwini, where it increased its support in percentage and absolute terms.

In two metros, Buffalo City and Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC's support decreased in absolute and percentage terms.

In seven of the eight metros, the ANC received less support in absolute terms than it did in the 2009 national and provincial elections, the only exception being eThekwini.

In four metros, Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg, Tshwane and Cape Town, the ANC's support registered below 60 %.

The ANC's biggest loss in support was in Nelson Mandela Bay, where its support dropped by 15.5 percentage points.

TABLE 3: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

Councils where the DA Governs Outright [* = previously governed outright by the DA]

ANALYSIS:

Prior to the 2011 local government elections, the Democratic Alliance governed six municipalities outright and thirteen in total [seven in coalition with other parties]. In the 2011 elections the DA won thirteen municipalities outright, as well as four district councils, for a total of seventeen councils governed outright by the DA, 18 if one included the City of Cape Town. The four District Councils controlled outright by the DA are:  The West Coast, Cape Winelands, Overberg and Eden.

Four of these municipalities were under the ANC's control prior to the elections, as were two District Councils. In total the DA won outright control over six councils previously under the ANC's control.

The DA retained outright control over the six municipalities it controlled with a majority prior to the 2011 elections [Midvaal, Baviaans, Swartland, Theewaterskloof, Overstrand and Mossel Bay] and, in every case, increased it percentage share of the vote and the number of votes its received in absolute terms.

The DA controls municipalities outright in three provinces: The Eastern Cape, Gauteng and the Western Cape.

TABLE 4: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

Councils in which the DA is the Largest Party (but did not win outright)

ANALYSIS:

There are eleven municipalities, in addition to those the DA controls outright, where the DA may be able to govern in coalition with other parties, pending the outcome of discussions. Every discussion is dependent on the DA's capacity in that municipality to deliver effective coherent government and that any coalition partner shares the same values and ideals.

The eleven are: Matzikama; Witzenberg; Langeberg; Cape Agulhas; Hessequa; Oudtshoorn; Bitou; Laingsburg; Karoo Hoogland; Hantam; Nama Khoi

 Should those discussions all result in coalition governments in those municipalities, together with the 18 municipalities the DA governs outright, it would govern 29 councils in total. That is more than double the amount [13] the DA governed outright or in coalition prior to the 2011 election.

Of those nine councils seven were previously controlled by the ANC.

Of those 26 councils, in total, 13 were previously governed by the ANC.

[The list above does not include all those municipalities were the DA is in discussions with other parties, merely those where the DA has the largest percentage of the vote without winning outright.]

TABLE 5: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

Growth among Black Voters [a sample of 25 Voting Districts from across the country, where the population consists exclusively of black voters]

ANALYSIS:

The DA increased its support amongst black voters from approximately 1 % in 2009 to approximately 5 % in 2011. That 5 % translates into approximately 20 % of the DA's support base. In turn, that 20% represents between 500 000 and 600 000 black voters. There are literally thousands of Voting Districts across the country which demonstrate this growth. Above is a sample of just 25 such VDs. They demonstrate remarkable growth versus 2006 and 2009.

TABLE 6: DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

Wards Won by the DA off the ANC

ANALYSIS:

The Democratic Alliance won at least 133 wards from the ANC. At least ten of those wards contain a entirely or majority black voting population. A breakdown of those wards is as follows:

KwaZulu-Natal: 8
Mpumalanga: 5
North West: 1
Limpopo: 3
Gauteng: 18
Free State: 4
Northern Cape: 25
Eastern Cape: 26
Western Cape: 43

The DA lost six wards to the ANC across the country.

Source: http://thedadeliverydaily.com

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