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The govt matric 2011: Number crunched

Pass rate up but fewer candidates actually wrote and passed exams (especially maths)

On Wednesday evening the Minister of Basic Education, Angie Motshekga, announced that the 2011 National Senior Certificate pass rate had increased to 70,2% from 67.7% the previous year. This apparent improvement led the headlines on this year's government matric results. As in previous years it will take some time for independent analysis to overtake the political spin.

However, it is immediately apparent from the figures released in the department's technical report (see here - PDF) that a simple reliance on the percentage pass rates is misleading. 496 090 full time candidates wrote the 2011 government matric, 41 453 fewer than in 2010. (Conversely, the number of part time candidates enrolled increased to 112 780 from 82 553 in 2010.) 348 117 passed, down 16 030 from the year before. So, the number of candidates who passed matric declined even as the pass rate increased.

The percentage of candidates receiving bachelor degree passes in 2011 ticked up to 24.3% from 23.5% in 2010. But again this masks an absolute decline in the numbers to 120 767, down 5 605 from the year before.

The decline in those writing and passing mathematics was even more dramatic. 46.3% of the 224 635 candidates who wrote the mathematics exams passed with 30% or more, marginally down from 47.4% in 2010. However, 38 399 fewer candidates wrote these exams and the number who passed, in absolute terms, was down 20 716 from the year before (see Table 1).

Table 1: Change in government matric results (in absolute numbers and percentage terms)

 

2010

2011

 Change

Full time candidates who wrote

537 543

496 090

-41 453

No. who passed

364 147

348 117

-16 030

% passed

67.7%

70.2%

2.4%

Bachelors passes

126 371

120 767

-5 604

% passed

23.5%

24.3%

0.8%

No. who wrote maths

263 034

224 635

-38 399

% of total who wrote maths

48.9%

45.3%

-3.7%

No. who passed maths @ 30%

124 749

104 033

-20 716

%

47.4%

46.3%

-1.1%

No. who passed maths @ 40%

81 374

67 541

-13 833

%

30.9%

30.1%

-0.9%

No. who wrote physical science

205 364

180 585

-24 779

% of total who wrote science

38.2%

36.4%

-1.8%

No. who passed science @ 30%

98 260

96 441

-1 819

%

47.8%

53.4%

5.6%

Passed science @ 40%

60 917

61 109

192

%

29.7%

33.8%

4.2%

Total who wrote maths literacy

280 836

275 380

-5 456

Total passed @ 30%

241 576

236 548

-5 028

%

86.0%

85.9%

-0.1%

A further problem is that attaining a matric "pass" is a very low level attainment. In order to receive their national senior certificate matric candidates need to attain 40% or more in three subjects out of seven subjects - one of which must be their home language - and 30% in another three subjects.

The minimum passes in certain subjects appear to be almost automatic: Almost all matric candidates attained the required level for examinations in their home language subject: 94% for those who wrote English, 98,1% Afrikaans, and over 99% for the other nine official languages. Almost all (99,6%) candidates also attained more than 30% for the compulsory "life orientation" course - which is not externally examined. 96.2% of all those who wrote English as an additional language passed with 30% or more. 85.9% of candidates passed the basic mathematical literacy examinations with more than 30%.

The requirement for a bachelor's degree pass are not particularly onerous either: A candidate is required to attain 30% for - effectively - English (or occasionally Afrikaans), which almost all do, and more than 50% in four of the following subjects: Accounting, Information Technology, Agricultural Science, Languages, Business Studies, Life Sciences, Consumer Studies, Mathematics, Dramatic Arts, Mathematical Literacy, Economics, Music, Engineering, Graphics and Design, Physical Sciences, Geography, Religion Studies, History and Visual Arts.

The department's technical report on the examinations provides figures for passes at 30% and 40% in some cases, but not above that. It is thus not possible to evaluate trends at higher levels. However, only 67 541 of those who wrote the maths exam passed with more than 40%. This is 30.1% of those who wrote the exam, and 13.6% of all those who wrote the government matric.

The Western Cape was the best performing province with 82.9% of candidates in the province passing, 38.1% receiving a bachelor's degree pass, and 19,4% passing maths with more than 40%. Gauteng followed slightly behind, with the Eastern Cape the worst performer (see Table 2.) However, Limpopo, the Western Cape and Gauteng all reported significant declines in the absolute number of candidates who wrote and passed matric (see here).

Table 2: Provincial matric performance compared

 

Wrote

Passed

% of total

Bachelors pass

% of total

Maths pass @ 40%

% of total

E Cape

65 359

37 997

58.1%

10 291

15.7%

7 469

11.4%

F State

25 932

19 618

75.7%

6 817

26.3%

3 462

13.4%

Gauteng

85 367

69 216

81.1%

30 037

35.2%

14 706

17.2%

KZN

122 126

83 204

68.1%

27 397

22.4%

14 235

11.7%

Limpopo

73 731

47 091

63.9%

12 946

17.6%

9 580

13.0%

Mpumalanga

48 135

31 187

64.8%

8 866

18.4%

5 947

12.4%

N West

25 364

19 737

77.8%

7 187

28.3%

3 361

13.3%

N Cape

10 116

6 957

68.8%

2 012

19.9%

1 022

10.1%

W Cape

39 960

33 110

82.9%

15 214

38.1%

7 759

19.4%

National

496 090

348 117

70.2%

120 767

24.3%

67 541

13.6%

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