NEWS & ANALYSIS

About Jacob Zuma's first 30 months

Jeremy Gordin assesses the President's half term results and asks: are we surprised?

Boodle, or boodler, was a bar-room or street term for money or booty applied by the yellow press (in 1884-1886) to members of the New York Board of Aldermen who were charged with accepting bribes in connection with the granting of a franchise for a street railroad on Broadway. (http://en.wikipedia.org)

Booty:

1. pirate treasure, plunder or other ill-gotten gains 
2. butt, ass, specifically female posterior 
- Urban Dictionary (http://www.urbandictionary.com)

Someplace by Rahway prison they ran out of gas
The undercover cop had cornered them, [he] said:
‘Boy, you didn't think that this could last?'

- from "Tweeter & the Monkey Man," Travelling Wilburys (lyrics, Bob Dylan and Tom Petty)

1. Are we having fun yet?

This is an annoying phrase coined in the US by annoying people "at convenience stores, offices, or pretty much any place of business".

I believe the correct response, preferably to a female annoying person, is: No, pull your shirt up so the fun can begin.

Then there is: "Time flies when you're having fun". It does, doesn't it? But let me ask readers this: did you know that it was actually on 9 May 2009 - 30 months, two-and-a-half-years, ago - that Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma officially became president of the beloved republic?

The amount of time matters for two reasons.

First, most people don't realise that it was as long ago as that. To use another annoying cliché about time, most people feel "as though it were yesterday" (that Zuma became president).

Second, 30 months is half a president's term in this country i.e. another 30 months and Zuma's term (his first term, anyway) will be over. Cheers, big ears; though it's likely to be "hello again".

But let's go back to the half-way mark. This is, in turn, important for two reasons. The first is that it is noteworthy, as I have intimated, that no one seems to have noticed that the Zuma presidency has just crossed the half-way mark. Or if some newspaper (say) did notice, I have to say I missed its celebration of, or angst about, the moment.

The second reason why reaching the half-way mark of the Zuma presidency is important is this (if I, who know nothing about political studies, might generalise): as a rule, presidents and such-like are approaching the zenith of their terms when they reach the half-way point. By then they have clambered up the proverbial learning curve and half-way point is a strong place, a locus of some achievement.

Can this be said of Zuma? Are we having fun yet?

2. Modus operandi of this essay

We can be po-faced about this, readers, and trawl through all the major (and even minor) events of the last 30 months and work methodically through the limping government departments and frayed state sectors.

But, hey, it's summer time, for some people the living is easy, and the year is winding down now. In addition, I have done some research into the subject at hand (the first half of Zuma's term) and I know that we're not going to have too jolly a time. So let's try to be light-hearted.

Tell you what: I jotted down the first points that burst into the mind of a friend regarding Zuma's first 30 months and they were inter alia these: quite a lot of bad appointments (issue of loyalty/disloyalty to friends); the Zulufication of Seffrica; Malema; the chief justice issue; unions; "democratic awakening" relative to the Mbeki era; the protection (so-called) of information bill; and the arms deal commission of inquiry.

But these points and the others that spring to my mind below are not written in stone; they're not even written on paper. This is going to be a disorganised and hectic little stroll and of course there are places that we ought to visit that we won't. But at least we're going to try not to be po-faced. And, if you work hard, I'm hoping you'll find some method to my madness. (I haven't been able to do so - but I hope you will.)

3. In the beginning Mbeki got the boot

In September 2008 Mbeki got the boot from the ANC and Kgalema Motlanthe, the Mysterious Monk of Mahlamba Ndlopfu, as some people like to call him, did a caretaker stint. Reason for his nickname (affectionately bestowed)? We have ministers without portfolio and - oddly, in the light of what was to follow - we had a caretaker president apparently without even one wife around.

Why even talk about him? Well, he's the one serious contender for the job of ANC and RSA president/s in 2012 and 2014 respectively - the other fellows seem to have been (at this point, November 2011) neutered. But will the Mysterious Monk go against Zuma? I don't think so.

Then came the election in April 2009, during which Zuma actually worked bloody hard, and during which time the tripartite alliance was well and truly united behind him. (When I was a youngster on the Rand Daily Mail, there was a photograph in the subs' room of two lions copulating and these words: "Bend over, Benjy [Benjamin Pogrund, the deputy editor], we're right behind you.")

It was JGZ's time; Zuma was most people's flavour of the month. Though, even during the elections, Zuma was already having something of a polarizing effect. The ANC lost Western Cape and didn't do so well in Eastern Cape. In fact the only place where it did notably well was KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

Once Zuma was elected president, it looked as though Seffrica might forge itself a brave new world (yes, the reference to Aldous Huxley is intended). The cabinet appointments seemed pretty good; most importantly, performance was going to be managed by a minister, Collins Chabane: some structure and management seemed to be happening.

And of course there was a sense that almost anybody could talk to the new president; that he was approachable and non-malevolent. Truth is - and it became more and more evident with each passing day - Mbeki had really ruled the alliance through fear. People were poep scared of the little fellow.

So among tripartite and ANC leaders there was a massive and relieving exhalation of breath when Mbeki finally took the lonely walk down the driveway.

Also we must not forget that in July 2010, Zuma handed the reins of the country over to the Fifa fascists. Septimus Blatter, that prize pain-in-the-baobab, ran this place - and no one, but no one, could look bad relative to Blatter. It's impossible

Anyway, at the start of Zuma's presidency, there were those (including me) who believed that, provided he had the right people around him, Zuma could be good for Seffrica.

But it's 30 months later and for me, at any rate, it doesn't exactly seem to have worked that way. Why not?

4. It's the economy, stupid

At the start of 2010, Zuma made his famous jobs pledge. Your cheque is in the post and I promise not to .... To cut a long story short, that pledge and subsequent ones related to unemployment have come to naught. The somewhat undergraduate New Growth Path (NGP) of November 2010 doesn't appear to have lit any fires either.

Sure, the world economy as a whole is pretty much in drerd, for which some people might like to blame on Zuma, but it's not his fault. But, whoever's fault it is (and obviously there are always a plethora of causes, even I understand that), an astute analyst said to me recently that it seemed to him that things were looking more bleak for South African business than they have been for a long time.

There's clearly disarray in the economics cluster. Pravin Gordhan is the Zuma man (from Vula days), Rob Davies is the trade and industry minister (and SACP man), and Ebrahim Patel, the minister of economic development, is the union man.

But they don't seem to be in agreement about much - they can't seem to agree which sandwich to have for lunch - and all the real action and direction, the spending, seems to be happening at the ministry of public enterprises (and the parastatals).

5. Shaka rules, ok?

Following the election of Zuma to president, one of the sayings of the late Deon du Plessis, founder and publisher of the Daily Sun, one that he was wont to repeat in a loud voice (as was his wont) was that "the era of KZN had finally begun".

He was thinking about newspaper circulation mainly. It doesn't matter; he was correct. Have a look at the influx of Zulus in positions of power and look at the infusion of all sorts of things into KZN. Consider how the KZN ANC youth league have split with the rest; consider how the KZN Cosatu unions are not particularly aligned with the mother body.

If there is any one reason why Zuma will get a second term, it's because the KZN-ers will see to it, come hell or high water.

6. Unions

Now, in November 2011, we note that the Cosatu is keeping mum about the ANC and the good, ol' succession battle. Overall, this is because now there are no (presidential) options for 2012 and 2014 and the various union leaderships are divided. Some still back Zuma; some don't.

Zwelinzima Vavi has said that if he had to do Polokwane again, he wouldn't back either side. But it's difficult to see how taking sides then could have possibly been avoided - or how it can be in Manaung next year.

7. Presidency qua Park Station; or, The not-so-Secret Life of Chaos

Parallel with the milling about in the financial/economics cluster, the presidency's been a bit of a mess. There have been so many personnel changes that it's almost been tantamount to standing on the Park Station concourse.  So much so that I can't even remember who did what to whom - and it would take about three weeks to research the matter properly.

There was Vusi Mavimbela as DG but, like so many others, he got an ambassadorship when he was found not to be wanted. There was Jesse Duarte (remember her?). There was Vusi Mona of Hefer commission fame. There was Zizi "codpiece" Kodwa who got the half-bullet probably because he was previously a Fikile Mbalula and youth league sort of a guy. Kodwa has recently been discovering, on his own, the problems besetting our forensics labs; I hope he drops a word in the president's ear.

The last man standing is of course DDJ Lakela Kaunda (she's a woman, by the way). In a sense, she's the person who really runs the country. But let me not bad-mouth her. A friend, who is very senior in the government, said to me the other day: "You know, I've gotten to respect Lakela. She's trying to organise order in the middle of chaos." It reminded me of that BBC documentary, "The Secret Life of Chaos," presented by physicist Jim Al-Khalili.

And how could I forget that genius among men, that most sensitive of appointments ... Jimmy Manyi? Have you heard the latest from his fecund mouth? Though, to be fair, this idea comes from the massed genius of the cabinet.

The cabinet, said Manyi about four days ago, wants to assess decisions made by the Constitutional Court - this as part of its broader review of transformation. The review would be carried out by a "reputable research institution".

That's good lads; you start messing with one of the last bulwarks of democracy in the land; I like your style.

We also have in the presidency Mac "Operation Vula" Maharaj, who blew in like a breath of fresh air, albeit air of a much older vintage (can this be so - scientifically-speaking?).

A corporal of mine in the old fascist SADF used to say: "Kry ‘n bietjie rigting, troep." (This was before I became a corporal.) Mac seemed to have instilled a bit of rigting at the presidency; he seemed to be kicking ass and to favour a little less mealy-mouthedness of approach.

Then, Boom! a rather old story relating to his days as minister of transport in the Mandela government recently hit the Mail&Guardian and Sunday Times - and it looks as though the president's latest spokesperson is in a serious bit of doodoo.

8. Ja-nee

I'm not quite as certain as are the gentle folk of the fourth estate about the reasons for the payments to Zarina Maharaj by a Schabir Shaik company; I'm not as sure that they're about bribery and corruption.

There was, as some of you may recall, life before the ANC governments. Zarina could have channeled funds on behalf of Mac for reasons related to certain pre-1994 activities and then he and she wanted to be paid back ... I dunno, just a thought; use it, don't use it; whatever.

What interests me more is this: who leaked this story and why now? Somebody has clearly got it in for Zuma (and Mac, or Zuma via Mac) and this someone is "going hard", as the New Zealanders say. This brings me to (bear with me):

9. Trouble among the spooks

Thabo Mbeki thought he knew everything there was to know about foreign policy. Not even Henry Kissinger could know as much as he. Jacob Zuma thinks he knows everything there is to know about intelligence. Not even John le Carré could know as much as Zuma. Spooks are Zuma's babies, his children, his darlings. In other words, if there's not a conspiracy of some sort, Zuma is not very happy ... and conspiracy-mongers therefore have his ear.

Could this be why Siyabonga Cwele appears to be succeeding in his quest to drive three good men out of the intelligence service? Is Cwele a conspiracy peddler? Jeff Maqetuka, the DG of the state security agency, is on the road; Gibson Njenje is long gone, like turkey through the corn; and Moe Shaik is making copies of his CV.

What I am suggesting is that maybe there is a conspiracy. The Mac story is almost as old as I am - why has it been raised now? - and Zuma's most beloved department is cut to the bone.

I'm only asking, as Julian Askin used to say.

10. Foreign affairs, baby or, More Pricks Than BRICS

So bad is Cwele at the game, so apparently obtuse is he, that he can probably be held as responsible as Zuma and the late sex pest's wife, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, for the massive international balls-ups that have dogged our so-called foreign policy.

The mess regarding Libya - the mistaken vote for NATO's no-fly zone (they say our oke at the UN merely pressed the wrong lever) - and the mess regarding Cote d'Ivoire (the Gbagbo versus Quattara saga) - are, if you think about it, both attributable to poor intelligence.

(Actually I heard that Barack Obama called Zuma the night before the vote, so Zuma called New York and said, well, vote for the no-fly zone. No one knew if they were Arthur or Martha.)

Someone else said that Zuma became so embroiled in shuttle diplomacy to Libya because he wanted to ensure Brother Leader had shredded that paper trail. But people will, you know, say anything. Yet another person told me that China brought Seffrica into BRICS because there are too many bleeding-heart democracies in the organisation. Besides, in Chinese terms, the ANC is a cheap date and puts out without lifting an eyebrow.

Talking of China - which, under Zuma's friendly eye, is the investment opportunity of choice among the ANC head honchos - what did you make of the Dalai Lama scandal?

Well, for one thing it brought Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu out of retirement - in my view a very bad thing.

11. The biggest cock-up of them all?

But talking of all these things, what's actually the biggest cock-up of them all recently? Urbane Trevor Manuel, fellow with the RADA accent, who's been hiding out in the bowels of the Union Buildings, has come up with this plan.

Called the National Development Plan, it is beaucoup impressive, though I fear it might in fact be somewhat irrelevant to what's actually happening on the streets. Be this as it may, it does depend on what you could call "a social contract": it does depend on bringing everyone on side.

What are those lines from the first stanza of Byron's "The Vision of Judgment" that I learnt in Mrs Birkitt's English class at Brakpan High? "But since the Gallic era ‘eight-eight' / The devils had ta'en a longer, stronger pull, / And ‘a pull altogether,' as they say / At sea - which drew most souls another way."

That's it - society needs to pull altogether. And yet we have had Minister Cwele's moronic Protection of Information Bill. This has in one fell swoop nullified any toenadering that might have existed between government and civil society; it has effectively driven a blunt object right up the anus of "the people" for months and years to come.

Moral of the story; Zuma and Cwele might or might not know something about intelligence, but their political sensitivity, their knowledge of how to get things done in our society, is about 0.

12. Tempus fugit

Tempus fugit, my dears, and I am drawing close to my allotted number of words. Yet I have said nothing about the one-legged justice system, the appalling remand prisons, the bankrupt health sector, the useless police, the most frightening job in the world (national police commissioner), Little Julie Malema, pot holes, the new chief justice, the arms deal commission of enquiry, and so much more.

But I did say I was going to be careful not to depress you.

And what about Zuma Inc (all the investments that the family have)? And the Guptas, that sweet family from India that merely wants to make an honest buck? What about Aurora mine? What about all the other patronage networks?

If you think about what Zuma has done for himself and his family, you do have to say that at least the man is not over-awed by his office.

13. A Little Dream

Once, a long time ago, I dreamt I was running the Comrades marathon with Bruce Fordyce (a china from another chapter of my life).

"Gosh," I said to him (in this dream), "we're half-way, we've made it to Drummond."

"Yeah," he said morosely, which he could be, especially when he was sober, "but we still have to deal with Polly Shorts."

14. The Vision Thing

"One of the difficulties with the present administration," I said one day to a friend of mine, "is that there doesn't seem to be any ideological foundation, any sort of vision, in the Zuma camp."

"So what?" he responded.

‘If you think about it," he continued, "Mbeki and the guys around him were prepared to screw up South Africa on the basis of some ideology. The guys around Zuma don't have any particular ideology or principles at all; they're just plain porkers crowding around the trough. I can live with that."

15. The elephant in the room

Know any good stuff about the last 30 months, I asked a senior member of the government.

He thought that life in general had been relatively stable; that the evaluation system was working in government; that the national planning commission was not at all irrelevant; that, given international conditions, the economy was holding up.

But - he continued - there was too much Nkandla-style politics; that the state was being held hostage by "certain elites"; and that - above all - if poverty and inequality weren't dealt with, and the delivery systems that could help deal with them weren't fixed, the country was going to be torn apart during the next 20 years. 

"We need to be effective, responsive and conscientious. Some of my colleagues say we are those things; that we're moving slowly and surely but strongly like an elephant. But I say we need to be moving like leopards, not elephants. We're running out of time ..."

16. What did you expect? or, Boodle and Booty

"When I wake up in the middle of the night, worrying about the things we're discussing," says a friend of mine, "I say to myself: ‘What are so surprised about? You knew what he was. What the f*** did you expect?'

"Mbeki used to proclaim loudly: ‘I am an African!'. Zuma's mantra has to be ‘boodle and booty'. Those are his main interests and always have been. Why am I surprised?

"Why are you surprised by any of this, Jeremy? What did you expect?"

This article was published with the assistance of the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit (FNF). The views presented in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of FNF.

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