In the last fortnight, we saw the recall of President Thabo Mbeki by his own party; his subsequent resignation; the resignation of the Deputy President, Phumzile Mlambo- Ngcuka; the resignation of several senior Ministers; and the swearing in of a new President, Kgalema Motlanthe. Rumours of an ANC split now abound.

The events have been described by some commentators as the biggest political crisis to hit South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994. And the present turmoil will last for a while yet, just like the turbulence in the international banking system.

But if we look below the bubbling surface, we will see the real hope, indeed far more than a possibility, that over the next five years, South Africa 's constitutionalists will win the struggle for our country's soul. We will survive our Constitution's adolescence, and the crises this phase inevitably brings, to emerge a more mature, stable and consolidated democracy to take our country to the next level.

The events of the past few months have exposed and revealed what is really going on, and what danger this entails for our country. This is a much healthier situation than the state of denial we have been in for so long.

More and more people understand what we mean when we talk about constitutionalism, and the need for institutions to limit the power of the ruling party. This new awareness, which has permeated the consciousness of our society's opinion makers on all fronts, provides fertile ground for the next crucial step in the evolution of our democracy.

The Nicholson judgment has reverberated through our institutions of state, alerting incumbents, from the police to the public broadcaster and the Independent Electoral Commission that their role is to serve the people - not the party - and that there is a distinction between the two. This may seem trite in a longstanding constitutional democracy like Britain to succeed. And all indications are that we are learning them.

But the greatest cause for optimism is that the foundations have been laid for the next crucial step in the evolution of our democracy. We are moving away from the current configuration with one single dominant party and a fragmented opposition. The dominant party is beginning to fracture and the opposition is beginning to coalesce around common core values.

This process started in 2006 when the Democratic Alliance emerged as the largest party in Cape Town and managed to come to power in a six party coalition, securing a majority of a single seat in the 210-seat Council.  Against all odds, this coalition has worked extremely well, and facilitated a convergence around the DA's policies for an open, opportunity-driven society. The events in Cape Town had national significance. They were, in effect, the start of the realignment of politics.

Our next major step is about nine months away, at the general election of 2009. In this crucial benchmark election, we must seek to hold the ANC below a 2/3 majority nationally, and we must win power in at least one province, either on our own or in a coalition with other opposition parties. There is a distinct likelihood that we will succeed in the Western Cape .

This task will be made easier if the ANC splits before the next election, but this development is not a foregone conclusion. Last week an ANC breakaway seemed a certainty. This week the probability is retreating, and is now just a possibility, as Kgalema Motlanthe moves to rally his disaffected forces, and allay the ANC's internal tensions; and as the enormous difficulties of launching a new party so close to an election dawn on the major proponents of the initiative.

But whether there is a breakaway now or not, one thing is certain: the ANC's divisions will deepen in the years ahead and its disintegration, from a position of almost complete hegemony for the past 14 years, has begun.

If we succeed in our 2009 electoral objectives, we will show that the DA's policies to promote an open, opportunity-driven society for all produce better results than the ANC's closed, patronage-driven society. We will demonstrate that our talk about constitutionalism has real practical implications for people who aren't interested in political theory, but want homes, decent education and health care for their families. 

If we can demonstrate progress, step by step, (as we have been doing in Cape Town), by the time the 2011 local government election is upon us, the realignment will be well advanced. It could take different forms, either as a growing coalition of various component parties, or preferably, as a new political entity, free of the baggage of the past, to take on the challenge of the future. 

The possibilities of the 2011 election are even more exciting than those of 2009 because we have the real prospect of winning power in South Africa 's major cities. Already the urban electorate is showing encouraging signs of breaking the political logjam. Just last week an Ipsos Markinor poll of urban voters with landline telephones showed the ANC and the DA neck and neck in the major cities - 27% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC, 26% said they would vote for the DA and 27% were undecided. 

This is significant, and as the realignment progresses, and the move from the ANC continues, this trend will escalate. And the DA will be the core of the alternative, either because we progressively extend our voter support base, or because events trigger a more dramatic series of events that shape the realignment.  No-one can predict exactly how this will happen, but the trend is crystal clear.

By the next general election in 2014 - just five and a half years from now - a new political entity will be a pillar of the political landscape, with real prospects of winning the national election. Some key names of South African politics - currently scattered across many parties or outside of politics altogether - will find the same political home, and we will nominate a presidential candidate and shadow cabinet that can carry us through the real test of any emerging democracy - a peaceful change of power through the ballot box.

That is the vision. And it is not wishful thinking. The political currents, growing stronger below the surface, are propitious. We have to row extremely hard, sometimes with the current (and sometimes across it) to extend our support base, continue the dialogue already underway behind the scenes, win power wherever we can, and then govern well to demonstrate the alternative in practice to change people's lives.

As long as we keep faith in our project, the prospects for South Africa are good and the future is bright. I have little doubt that if we read it right, make the right moves and work hard enough, history will show that the events of the past fortnight were a catalyst for positive change in our country.

This article by Helen Zille first appeared in SA Today, the weekly online newsletter of the leader of the Democratic Alliance October 3 2008. This week's article is based on a speech delivered by Zille at the South African Business Club in London on October 2 2008