BLOEMFONTEIN - At the start of the third and final day of the inaugural conference of the Congress of the People (COPE) a group of delegates carried along a mock coffin made of cardboard with the words "REST IN PEACE ANC" written the side. One delegate in the crowd held aloft a poster on which was hand written "COPE; NO-SHOWER; NO-MSHINI."

Quite clearly the delegates were not there to praise the ANC of Jacob Zuma, but whether their new party will be able to bury it is another matter. The new party was born out of disaffection with the defeat of the incumbent ANC leadership at Polokwane, and precipitated by Mbeki's early recall as South African president. But COPE is hoping to capitalise on a desire for change and with the disillusionment by many ordinary ANC supporters at the way in which their interests have been neglected. The new party leadership self-selected at the conference has to counterbalance the veneration of many delegates for former president Mbeki, with a programme that offers a different kind of politics.

In his closing address the new president of the party, Mosiuoa Lekota, raised at least three issues which represent a departure from the approach taken by the ANC under President Thabo Mbeki (and now adopted by his successors). Lekota told congress, to loud cheers from delegates, that COPE would "professionalise the public service and discontinue the political deployment system."

He also stated that COPE would pursue a more non-racial approach to affirmative action. "We intend to sustain the economic empowerment and affirmative action. This will not be done on the basis of race; and I repeat, this will not be done on race."

When asked about this in a later press conference Lekota emphasised the importance of education and training in uplifting the deprived black majority. He stated that if all black South Africans were provided with the necessary education and training, they would enter into the job market in very large numbers.

"And of course, what we need to do is ongoing expansion of the economy - so that all of them find a niche that they can occupy in the economy. It cannot be done artificially taking this white out and putting a black in. You have got to create conditions in which people can realise their talent and potential, and have space and opportunity to exercise that in the economy."

In his speech he stated that when the dismissal of suspended National Director of Public Prosecutions, Vusi Pikoli, came before parliament, "We hope that members of parliament will exercise their independence and oversight role as guaranteed by the constitution."

In the later press conference Lekota criticised Motlanthe's decision to re-fire Pikoli against the recommendations of the Ginwala enquiry. "President Motlanthe, given this judgment, instead of taking back into office someone who has been vindicated, dismisses him. Parliament is now asked to endorse this act, which in the judgment of many of us runs short of justness. MPs acting on behalf of all of us are duty bound not to outrage our better senses." Lekota, however, refrained from criticising Mbeki's original decision to suspend Pikoli.

The evidence available so far suggests that the organisation certainly has potential. The Ipsos-Markinor poll conducted in October 2008 - so shortly before the breakaway cohered - found that 68,3% of respondents would vote for the ANC "if the election was held tomorrow." However, when asked about the 2009 election 20% of these ANC supporters said they would "vote for the new political party, that is very similar to the ANC." Among all likely voters 18% said they would vote for the new political party, with only 53% of such respondents saying they would "vote for the ANC under the leadership of Jacob Zuma."

This is now the third poll - all conducted before the launch of the breakaway in early November - which suggest that COPE could draw up to a fifth of the ANC's existing support (see here and here). As the Markinor poll confirms if COPE attains this level of support it will reduce the ANC's majority to close to fifty percent.

Whether COPE is able to realise this potential will largely depend on whether the new party is able to put in place an organisational structure before the election, and raise the money needed to fund their campaign.

The Cape Argus reported on Monday that the organisation was suffering from a cash flow crisis as a number of pledges made to the party had not materialised. The newspaper reported that "It was also alleged that there were insufficient funds in the party's coffers to foot the transport bill for Tuesday's rally, where organisers are hoping for 10 000 people."

In her organisational report the party's secretary general, Charlotte Lobe, states that since the unveiling of the name of the new party "our structures were able to recruit 428,000 members. As a result of time constraints our structures could not conduct any audit except to count and verify forms received from interim branches of COPE." Again, such initial enthusiasm still needs to be translated into a substantive organisation on the ground.

A further influential factor will be political momentum - ‘the big mo' as it is called - or the lack thereof. If potential members, defectors, and supporters lose confidence in the electoral prospects of COPE its growth could stall and it could fall well short of its potential, as indicated in these opinion polls. If the new party is seen to be a winning ticket its support could well surge beyond that.