The ANC has started disintegrating, and this paves the way for the reconfiguration of politics in South Africa .  This is a positive step, and will have significant implications in several provinces in the 2009 election  --  particularly the Western Cape and the Northern Cape.

It means that the DA is in pole position to win in the Western Cape , and the ANC is likely to lose the Northern Cape as well.  Mosiuoa Lekota's planned breakaway party is likely to take many of the Northern Cape 's current ANC branches and tear the party down the middle in that province.  A coalition of opposition parties is likely to govern the Northern Cape after the election in 2009.

When the ANC held its provincial congress in the Northern Cape earlier this year, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe observed that the congress was not an ANC gathering but rather a "competition" between the supporters of provincial chairperson, John Block, and the backers of provincial secretary, Neville Mompati.  In truth, it was more like civil war with ANC members actually physically attacking each other in the run-up to the Congress.

Competition between rival factions in the ANC - for power, patronage and privileges - has crippled governance, stalled service delivery, and fractured party unity.

The result will be a realignment of politics in this province: it may happen faster here than in other provinces, though to be sure, it will happen everywhere. And the DA must be ready to take advantage of it. If enough of our supporters turn out to vote in next year's election, we can win the Northern Cape - either on our own or in a coalition with other like-minded parties.

Lekota's announcement yesterday that he was serving "divorce papers" on the ruling party was a welcome development. The imminent formation of a breakaway party will act as an important check on power abuse and anti-constitutionalism in the ruling party. And it will help to reduce the ANC's 74% majority in Parliament, thus strengthening constitutional democracy.

The paradigm of a strong, dominant ruling party and a fragmented opposition - characteristic of societies undergoing a transition from liberation politics to constitutional democracy - is beginning to shift. And the DA is driving this process.

The process started in 2006 when the DA formed a coalition government with other opposition parties in Cape Town . Since then, we have begun to show people the difference that open, opportunity-driven government makes in their lives.

But we must not be satisfied with governing Cape Town alone. So where do we go from here?

In the 2009 general election, we must keep the ANC below a two-thirds majority and win the Western Cape either on our own or in a coalition with other opposition parties. We have already initiated talks with the ID in the province and are open to pursuing talks with any other party that shares our vision for South Africa.

The ANC is haemorrhaging support in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape, and fears losing these provinces to opposition coalition governments. We must work to make that a reality.

In 2011 local government elections we must win power in South Africa 's major cities, including - here in the Northern Cape - Kimberley . This is not a pipe dream. A recent Ipsos Markinor poll of urban voters showed that the ANC and the DA are neck and neck in the major cities - 27% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC, 26% said they would vote for the DA and 27% were undecided. 

In the 2014 election, we will be able to challenge the ANC for power nationally. By that time, the realignment that is currently underway will have culminated in the establishment of a new political vehicle - drawn from the ranks of the opposition and with the DA at its core. Its lodestar will be the Constitution.

These are our benchmark goals. A few years ago they might have seemed implausible, but now they are realisable. We must work hard to fulfil them and to ensure that constitutional democracy is the ultimate victor.

This is an extract from an address by Democratic Alliance leader, Helen Zille, at a public meeting in Calvinia, Northern Cape, October 9 2008

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