The events of the past several months - culminating in the Eskom debacle - have plunged the middle classes in South Africa into a state of deep despair about the future of the country. There are though some reasons for hope and one of these is that such events have struck a (possibly) mortal blow against Optimism; the doctrine that, as the OED put its, "the actual world is the ‘best of all possible worlds', being chosen by the Creator as that in which most good could be obtained at the cost of the least evil."

In Candide, Or Optimism Voltaire subjects this philosophy to an extended satire. The novel's central character is Candide, a young man brought up in the castle of Baron von Thunder-ten-tronckh in Westphalia, Germany. The castle's philosophy tutor is Pangloss who, Voltaire writes, "could prove to wonderful effect that there was no effect without cause, and that, in this best of all possible worlds, His Lordship the Baron's castle was the finest of castles and Her Ladyship the best of all possible baronesses."

Voltaire proceeds to mock the belief that ‘all is for the best' by subjecting his characters to the most terrible depredations and misfortune. After being seen kissing the Baron's daughter, Cunégonde, Candide is thrown out of the castle, forcibly conscripted by the Bulgars, flogged, and reduced to penury - all by page 8. Candide's faith in his tutor's teaching is still not shaken at this stage and he comments, "There is no effect without cause, for everything is linked in a chain of necessity, and arranged for the best. It was necessary that I be chased away from Mademoiselle Cunégonde, and have to run the gauntlet, and necessary that I beg for my bread until such time as I can earn it; none of this could have been otherwise."

Eventually (pg. 52), Candide comes across a slave in South America who has lost his hand in the machinery of the sugar mills and then had his leg cut off after trying to run away. On witnessing this abomination Candide declares that he is giving up on Optimism. "What is Optimism?" his servant Cacambo inquires: "Alas!" Candide replies, "It is the mania for insisting that all is well when all is by no means well."

The history of South Africa through the Mbeki-era follows, to a remarkable degree, the basic plot of this novel. In 1995 Thabo Mbeki declared that it was his, and the ANC's, intention to embark upon "major surgery of society and state." He was as good as his word and by the end of 1998 the ANC had already rigged the arms deal; halted the provision of AZT for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV; abolished the merit principle in appointing civil servants; adopted the policy of cadre deployment; reasserted democratic centralism as its guiding organisational principle; enshrined the goal of ‘demographic representivity' in legislation; and, was in the midst of dismantling the checks-and-balances on its power so that it could rule ‘unfettered by constraints.'

One only needed a cursory knowledge of the history of post-colonial Africa to see the danger of what was happening. The Economist warned that by following such policies the ANC was taking some worrying steps in the Zimbabwean direction. "In several countries further north" it pointed out, "‘Africanisation' led to plunges in efficiency, investment and eventually standards of living. It also created a middle class wholly dependent on the ruling party for its livelihood. Some within the ANC think this is a good model." ("Party time in South Africa," February 20 1999)

Yet whenever such concerns were raised there was always a Pangloss-or-two around to anaesthetise public opinion with their Optimism. Whatever the ANC of Mbeki did was for the best. We lived in the best of all possible countries, with the best of all possible leaders, surrounded by the best of all possible advisors, pursuing the best of all possible policies, with the best of all possible constitutions, overseen by the best of all possible courts. Since there could be no effect without cause Africanisation (re-branded as ‘transformation') was not only ‘an imperative' and ‘non-negotiable'; but ‘inevitable,' ‘desirable' and ‘necessary' as well.

Such was the Optimism of the late 1990s that when a crony of Mbeki without any relevant experience was made chief of police, most English-language newspapers welcomed this as the best of all possible appointments. Those who dissented from this view were duly accused of ‘Afro-pessimism', ‘negativity', and ‘racial insensitivity.' Over the past few years the Optimists have been on the defensive, and there have been a number of desertions from their ranks, as it became increasingly difficult to sustain the claim that we had the best of all possible policies on AIDS, Zimbabwe, and arms-procurement. However, the past year has seen the retreat of Optimism turning into a rout.

It became untenable to maintain that our democracy was safe in the hands of Mbeki, as our Pangloss's were still wont to do, after he had sacked Vusi Pikoli for requesting a warrant for the arrest of Jackie Selebi; and was then thrown out as leader by his own party - precisely because his ambitions for a third term were seen as a threat to democracy. Moreover, by electing Jacob Zuma as Mbeki's replacement and bluntly announcing their intention to dissolve the Scorpions, the new ANC cruelly snatched away from our Optimists their usual sedatives of complacency and self-delusion.

And then, of course, there was the Eskom disaster; which knocked the government's reputation for managerial competence into a cocked hat. It also brought home - to any half-reflective person - that taken past a certain point of irrationality the ‘necessary, imperative, desirable, and non-negotiable' policy of Africanisation could bring the economy to a standstill. "Now tell us this, my dear Pangloss," Candide states towards the end of the novel (pg. 88), "While you were being hanged, and dissected, and beaten, and made to row in a galley, did you continue to believe that all was for the best?"

So, amidst the current worry and despondency there is one small cause for hope. This is the widespread recognition that things will carry on getting worse for as long as people avoid confronting hard truths and keep mindlessly insisting that things are for the best. As David Bullard noted in this weekend's Sunday Times: "The view that things will get better and that our current woes are not insurmountable will only hold true if we get rid of the cause of the problem."

Over the past decade the Optimists have been going around stirring up passivity, apathy, and inaction. Since whatever happens, and whatever is done, is for the best there is no need to try and change, or avoid, or oppose, anything. When "Jacques the Anabaptist" - a good man who saves both characters at a certain point - is washed overboard in a storm Pangloss prevents Candide from trying to rescue him, "arguing that Lisbon harbour was built expressly so that this Anabaptist should one day drown in it."

The Mbeki project was driven by a combination of high (African nationalist) ideology and base self-interest. But one reason it was able to get as far as it did, with almost fatal consequences for our constitutional democracy (not to mention our electricity utility), was that so much of civil society was for so long consumed by that mania of insisting that ‘all is well when all is by no means well.'