Provincial Party Support Predicted to be close to 2009 Elections

The ANC should, in most of the provinces, draw similar support in tomorrow‟s local elections than in the 2009 national and provincial elections.

The larger than normal undecided vote may, however, influence the party‟s winning margin in KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, North West and Gauteng. In the sparsely populated Northern Cape the way the yet undecided electorate will vote has a big influence on whether the ANC‟s support will match their victory in the 2009 elections.

Although people in the Western Cape who are certain about who they will vote for should push the DA‟s support to over 50%, a quarter of the voters is still undecided and may deliver a surprise.

South Africa‟s nine provinces are very diverse, not only in terms of size, development, affluence and population size, but also in terms of their political views.

An analysis was done of the possible outcome of tomorrow‟s election in each province. These findings are based on a study done by Ipsos Markinor from the middle of April to the beginning of May - involving a representative sample of voters in the whole country -including deep rural areas.. Respondents were randomly selected to represent South Africans of voting age, i.e. 18+. These results were then further filtered by those who are registered to vote, have a green bar-coded ID document, want to vote and expressed the opinion that he or she is likely to vote in the Local Government election . The results are thus taking into account the possible voter turnout.

The question is asked as "If there were Local Government elections tomorrow, which political party or organisation would you vote for?" Respondents are then handed a ballot paper and asked to draw a cross next to their party of choice. This ballot paper contains the names, logos and acronyms of the biggest political parties in the country (as seen in previous surveys). There is also space to write in another party name or other comments. The respondents are also permitted to spoil their ballot, which further simulates an actual election. Respondents are then required to place their completed ballot sheets in an envelope and hand them back to the interviewer, which ensures respondent anonymity. The results that follow are based on this ballot procedure.

Please note that this is not a predicted outcome, but a reflection of people who were certain who to vote for when the poll was done. In most provinces there are substantial proportions of voters who want to and are likely to vote indicating that they still have to make up their minds before they vote. Also take into account that the margin of error per province is considerably higher than that of the national results - thus these results should be regarded and used with caution.

What are the most important issues in your area that the new local councils should address?

This question yielded very interesting results. The next table outlines issues that were mentioned by a higher proportion of likely voters than the national average for the issue and should give a good idea of the burning issues in each province.

Statement issued by Mari Haris, Ipsos-Markinor, May 17 2011

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