It was clear from the results of the latest Ipsos Markinor opinion poll [1] that around one in every ten (10%) of likely voters [2] are still undecided. On 16 April 2009 we reported in a press release that the ANC would potentially win between 64% and 66% of the vote on the national ballot and could, depending on the voter turnout, achieve the coveted 66.6% (two thirds) majority.
Traditionally, the ANC has benefited most from late deciders and high voter turnout. Voter registration was brisk and all other indications are that there is a lot of interest in this election, therefore we can expect a higher voter turnout than the 15.8 million and 15.9 million of the previous two national elections. Ipsos Markinor uses a ballot paper resembling the actual election ballot paper and asks respondents to complete this ballot paper by drawing a cross next to the party they would support in the election.
At the time of fieldwork about 10% (one in every ten likely voters) was undecided and did not indicate their party choice on the ballot paper. However, in this special pre-election Socio-Political Trends survey a series of other questions were also asked and the results of these questions were used to determine the preference of these "undecided" voters. The 3 key aspects that were factored into this analysis were:
Likely voters' feeling about each of the eight biggest parties in the country was established by employing a holistic scale. Each voter had to indicate how he/she feels about each party on a 6-point scale ranging from "I reject this organisation completely and on principle" to "I would definitely vote for this organisation if there were an election".
Leadership and the image of leaders are important elements of the political scene in our country and therefore a question linking leaders and parties was also included: and read as follows:
"I am now going to read out some voting options that may be possible in the next election. Please tell me which one of them comes closest to how you feel right now: