The Democratic Alliance (DA) is facing mid-term elections for its parliamentary leadership by October this year, and all indications are that incumbent Athol Trollip will be challenged. Whatever the outcome, the result will be important in determining the shape of South Africa's Ofiicial Opposition in the years to come.
Compulsary mid-term elections for leadership positions in all DA caucuses at national, provincial and local levels were formalised at the party's national congress last year, and must take place halfway into a cacus's term - two and a half years after the caucus was elected to its five-year term.
When the DA caucus last elected a leadership in May 2009, two candidates were nominated. Eastern Cape leader Trollip beat chief party strategist Ryan Coetzee by fourteen votes - 47 to 34, against the preference of party leader Helen Zille, party chair Joe Seremane and the DA establishment.
Since then, Trollip's performance has been solid rather than spectacular, and certainly not on par with that of his predecessors, Sandra Botha and Tony Leon. He is a pleasant person who has some personal following, and his supporters argue that he would do better as parliamentary leader if he were given more of a free hand. He has formed friendships with many in the caucus who feel vulnarable or underappreciated, and his linguistic abilities in English, isiXhosa and Afrikaans have stood him in good stead.
His opponents hold that he is a nice guy, but ineffective and uninspiring, that that others in a talented caucus would show more vision and purpose, and that those need the opportunity to excel. All considered, a contest is expected in October.
For a contest to occur, a challenger must materialise. For change to happen, votes in caucus must shift.
At this stage, two names are mentioned as possible challengers: Lindiwe Mazibuko and Wilmot James. Mazibuko has shot to fame, especially on the back of her performances in parliamentary debate and as national DA spokesperson during the May 2011 election campaign. She is brilliant and eloquent, and provides the antithesis to Julius Malema so desperately needed if the DA were to reach the aspirational young mass of voters who will help determine power relations in the years to come.
In 2014, the DA has an electoral mountain to climb. Its excellent election results in May, which envigorated its supporters, were achieved on the back of a massive differential - polling percentages in DA supporting areas were much higher than in ANC areas. Normally, this local government election differential evens out in a general election. In a proportional representation system, it means the DA vote would have to show strong growth in real terms for it to maintain or strengthen its numbers in proportional terms. In addition to very high turnout among its current voter base, it would have to reach into growth markets to maintain proportional momentum, and that is Mazibuko's strength.
Some factors are, however, stacked against her. Firstly, she is 31years old, which to many of her well-disposed colleagues means that she would do well to gain a little more experience, also within the party structures, before she challenges for the parliamentary prize. More importantly, those who are doubtful on whether to vote for her, believe that she has to, in time, show greater independence: she is seen (rightly or wrongly) as being so close to the current DA leadership core. DA leader Helen Zille's comments, widely if perhaps incorrectly read as prematurely endorsing Mazibuko, has left many in the caucus with the perception that it might be remote-controlled from the Western Cape legislature. Many others regard such a perception as a red herring. For such a perception to be buried, strong caucus leadership is needed.
Supporters of Dr Wilmot James believe he is just the man for the job. His brilliant international career in academics and NGOs, his analytical mind and his ability (shown when visiting DA supporters in the humblest of circumstances) to connect with grassroots supporters are cited as positives. He is seen by his supporters to drive important portfolio issues (education, in his case) effectively, is believed to have the gravitas to stand up against the ANC in Parliament, and to ensure that caucus is not remote-controlled. A key election issue will be ability to help recruit, manage and inspire a new staff compliment, which Trollip was thus far unable to do and which many believe James will be be very good at.
What counts against James? Some of his opponents believe him to be "too academic", and some mutter that his religious beliefs are unclear. He hails from the Western Cape, which is already well represented in DA leadership circles. Another objection raised is that he has not been a longstanding DA member. Critics claim he lacks the populist oratorical skills needed to reach out to new constituencies.
So, how could the caucus vote? Early days yet, but indications are supporters of both potential challengers realise two things: a split vote against Trollip woud probably mean re-election, and some people who voted for him in 2009 would have to swing against him in order for change to happen. Positions might be offered in order to make the caucus leadership more representative of its support base within caucus.
Much discussion is taking place at present, and the situation is in flux. Some votes are definitely shifting, and the composition of caucus has changed somewhat since 2009. Whereas these changes had originally strengthened Trollip (who has, in his favour, the power of incumbency), a change in the KZN delegation and two vacancies in the Western Cape will give him food for thought.
Add the five ID members, who were not caucus members in 2009 and are said not to be in the bag for Trollip, and the scene is set for an interesting and unpredictable election by October, which will set the tone for opposition conduct in Parliament until 2014.
Jan-Jan Joubert is Rapport's political editor. This article was published with the assistance of the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit.
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