There seems to be a general misunderstanding of the EFF’s proposed national shutdown. It isn’t to protest, disrupt or intimidate, it is to test the revolutionary waters. Here is how:

Whatever you make of the EFF pseudo-revolutionary credentials externally, it is important to understand that, internally, the EFF absolutely regards itself as a revolutionary movement.

As such, it is in the business of revolution. For the EFF the fundamental edifice that is South Africa is inverted and unjust, with the rich at the top and the poor at bottom. It seeks to upturn all this. And revolution is how it seeks to accomplish it.

Because its support is capped - there simply isn’t a majority market for fundamental socialism in SA - it needs a volatile environment to achieve this. And from there, it just needs to “trip the switch”. That is its analysis.

It has many of the ingredients for this: acute poverty and joblessness, rampant corruption, a profound loss of faith in the state and the organs of law and order. Much else besides. Load-shedding naturally exacerbates this social instability.

And, from the EFF’s perspective, there is some other encouraging recent precedent: the riots and looting that swept through KZN. Also the result of a “tripped switch”. All this, the EFF regards as fertile ground for revolution. It’s not entirely wrong.

To this end, the EFF regularly tests the revolutionary waters. It called for a national shutdown in 2018 (over healthcare) and 2022 (over government incompetence). Had Covid not been around, there would have been more of these.

They are supplemented by other “tests”. Calls to occupy all the mines, or ABSA branches. Always it uses some contemporary, volatile grievance to mobilise: racism, Life Esidimeni, etc. Always it is seeing if the switch can be tripped.

To date it has been wholly unsuccessful. All its calls for national action have been laughable; some, (the ABSA occupation) have never happened at all. But that is not the point, each time it evaluating the country’s pain threshold.

Consider these remarks from Malema, in an interview with the BBC last year:

In the BBC interview, Mr Malema accused rich black people of committing "class suicide".

"The violence that is going to happen in South Africa is because the elite is disappearing and the poor are becoming more poorer," he told the BBC's Stephen Sakur.

"Therefore there's going to be something that looks like an Arab Spring. That, we are guaranteed."

Malema also said in that interview: “when the unled revolution comes… the first target is going to be white people.” Every revolution needs a readily identifiable enemy. But he will use anything to trigger a mass uprising.

Look how he attempted to fuel the KZN riots by opposing the deployment of the SANDF. Look at how the EFF celebrated the burning of parliament (“it is a beautiful fire”).

Malema thus wants three things: 1. An unled revolution 2. To be able to assume leadership of that revolution when it comes. 3. Until then, to position himself as the true voice of the people, and the bulwark between democracy, revolution and its consequences.

On Monday Malema will test the revolutionary waters again. Load-shedding is the contemporary crisis. His measure will not be if it succeeds or fails, but whether or not there is clear evidence temperatures are rising compared to before.

On that front too there is much for him to be encouraged about. The response to this proposed shutdown has been much more panicked. Threats of violence have helped that, but that is all part of the plan.

In the coming months and years, you will see the EFF continue to do this. The thing you need to be scared about is not, however, the EFF; it is the social volatility the ANC has created. It is the fuel the EFF seeks to ignite.

Here is former President Thabo Mbeki on the problem last year:

"One of my fears comrades is that one of these days... we're going to have our own version of Arab Springs.

"You remember what happened in Tunisia, in Tunis when that Arab Spring started? A street vendor was abused and beaten up by the police and destroyed whatever he was selling, and that got the country angry.

“That is how that uprising started in Tunisia. It's because the problem was brewing under the surface.

"They just a little spark. I'm saying one of my fears is that one of these days is going to happen was: You can't have so many people unemployed, so many people poor, people facing lawlessness, faced with the leadership in which ANC people are called corrupt. One day, it's going to explode."

In conclusion: it is important to understand, the EFF is only ever as strong as the volatile environment the ANC creates for it. The two are working together, informally, to manufacture the explosion Mbeki refers to. Unchecked, eventually the EFF will find the right switch.

This first appeared as a long thread at www.twitter.com/gvanonselen