Government's affirmative action plan:  millions of South Africans would have to move - Solidarity

18 February 2015 

Trade union Solidarity today released a report showing that there are 1,1 million coloured South Africans too many in the Western Cape should government apply its affirmative action policy of representivity. The 1,1 million represent 80% of the economically active coloured population in the Western Cape.

Those coloured South Africans would largely have to be replaced by black South Africans hailing from all provinces except from the Northern Cape. In all, 65% of coloured South Africans would have to leave the Northern Cape, and 70% of Indian South Africans would have to move away from KwaZulu-Natal.

This report was released on the eve of the controversial affirmative action court case in which the Department of Correctional Services (DCS) requests that the national demographics be applied to the Western Cape.

"If government wants to implement its controversial affirmative action programme, it would lead to large-scale social engineering. Government argues that the national demography should be applied in all provinces. The consequences of government's plans are absurd to the extent that one can almost not believe that the DCS wants to defend them in court. Figures in the Solidarity report show that it is both practically and politically impossible to implement government's race ideology," Solidarity Chief Executive Dirk Hermann said.

Moreover, the report also indicates that there are around 190 000 white persons too many in the Western Cape and 308 000 too many in Gauteng. There are about 300 000 black Africans too many in Limpopo and 260 000 too many in KwaZulu-Natal. To achieve government's goal of equal race representivity in all provinces more than three million South Africans will have to relocate. Ironically, black Africans constitute the group of which the highest number, namely 1,3 million would have to relocate. Coloured South Africans, with a total of 1,2 million persons who would need to relocate, constitute the second largest group.

In the 2012 case Solidarity brought against the DCS on behalf of Christo February the state's advocate argued as follows:

February could move anywhere in South Africa if the demographics in the Western Cape did not benefit him ... Take North West for instance: the population is mostly black. They need a combination of black, coloured and white people. The idea is to fill the gaps.

"Therefore, it really is the state's intention that people should move to those provinces where their number is under-represented. This is what they will formally argue in court. Therefore, such statements are not just populist statements. Hence, people don't have rights where they are living but will have to move to where they do have rights," Hermann said.

Solidarity again called on the DCS not to press ahead with the appeal. According to Hermann, the appeal is not defensible, neither from a legal, nor from a moral point of view.

Earlier in the day, Solidarity handed a petition, supported by more than 15 000 Western Cape residents, to the DCS. The petition appeals to the DCS to withdraw its appeal. The DCS is appealing against a previous ruling of the Labour Court in Cape Town which found it illegal to apply national demographics to the Western Cape. The court case will be heard in Cape Town on19 February 2015.

The report follows below: 

Statement issued by Dirk Hermann, Chief Executive: Solidarity, and Dirk Groenewald, Head: Centre for Fair Labour Practices, Solidarity, February 18 2015

Coerced race-based migration: Social engineering through the labour market

Paul Joubert

An illustration of the provincial migration of economically active people required to have each of the nine provinces reflect the national racial composition of the economically active population

The Department of Correctional Services (DCS) is appealing the Labour Court ruling that it could not use the racial composition of the national economically active population (EAP) as the goal for its employment equity policy in the Western Cape.

In 2012, in a case that Solidarity litigated on behalf of Mr Christo February, a Coloured employee of the DCS in the Western Cape who was (and still is) fighting for a promotion which is being denied because of his race, the DCS explained its position regarding using the racial composition of the national EAP as its employment equity goal in all geographical areas as follows:

February could move anywhere in South Africa if the demographics in the Western Cape did not benefit him. Take North-West for instance: the population is mostly black. They need a combination of black, Coloured and white people. The idea is to fill the gaps.

This exemplifies the approach that the South African government is following when applying its departments' employment equity policies. Through the Department of Labour and its Commission for Employment Equity, the government also encourages this approach in private enterprises. To put it succinctly, the government wants the racial composition of the inhabitants in all geographical areas of South Africa to be exactly the same. This comes down to a massive social engineering project, enforced through the labour market, that takes no heed of people's traditions, family ties or individual freedoms and preferences.

The following calculations, using the latest data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey from Statistics South Africa, adjust the economically active population of each of the nine provinces to the racial composition of the national economically active population.^[1] Note that these figures all only refer to the economically active population, not the total populations of each of the provinces. They do not include, for example, children or other non-working members of families who would also be affected by the government's social engineering project.

The national EAP proportions, according to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the fourth quarter of 2014 (2014Q4) (the latest survey published by Statistics South Africa) are currently the following:

Table 1

These proportions are not uniform throughout the country, but vary considerably among the different provinces, as table 2 shows:

Table 2 - Share of the provincial EAP by race group

The provinces are the finest level of detail that Stats SA provides these figures on and even at provincial levels, the estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. However, these are the figures used by the South African government, so they will be utilised for this analysis.

Table 3 shows the actual number of economically active people of each race group in each province, according to the 2014Q4 QLFS:

Table 3 - EAP of each province by race group

The figures in tables 1 to 3 can be used to determine the migration of different race groups among the nine provinces that will have to take place if the government's goal that the racial composition of the people inhabiting each of the nine provinces must be exactly the same is to be reached.

The calculations keep the total number of economically active people in each province the same and also keep the total (national) number of economically active people of people of each race group the same. Within these restrictions, the racial composition of each province's economically active population is adjusted to reflect the national figures as shown in table 1. Table 4 shows the results that are achieved:

Table 4 - EAP of each province by race group after adjustment to national EAP

After this adjustment (in table 4), the number of economically active people of each race group in each province is now compared to the original numbers in table 3. The differences that result indicate each province's required level of in-migration or out-migration of economically active people of each race group to make every province also reflect the national racial EAP proportions.

Table 5 displays these numbers. A positive figure indicates that in-migration is required and a negative figure indicates that out-migration is required:

Table 5 - Migration of EAP required to reach the government's goals

Positive figures show that in-migration is required, while negative figures show that out-migration is required.

It can clearly be seen from Table 5 that more than 1,1 million economically active Coloured people would have to migrate from the Western Cape, chiefly to KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. These Coloured people would have to be replaced mostly by black African people from all the other provinces except the Northern Cape. A massive out-migration of about 200 000 economically active Indian or Asian people would also have to take place from KwaZulu-Natal to the other provinces. Nearly 200 000 economically active white people would have to move from the Western Cape and more than 300 000 from Gauteng. It is important to note that this only refers to the economically active people. The real magnitude of the migrations would be even greater, as the families of economically active people would mostly join them in their migrations, which would significantly increase the total number of people who would have to move around the country as a result of this social engineering.

Table 6 shows the level of the required migrations as compared to the actual number of economically active people of each race currently living in the respective provinces. A figure of -50% indicates that half the economically active population of the specific race group in the province would need to migrate out of the province, while a figure of 100% indicates that the economically active population of the specific race group would need, through in-migration, to double from current levels:

Table 6 - Percentage change in EAP required to reach policy goals

In table 6 it can be seen that nearly 80% of the economically active Coloured population of the Western Cape would have to leave the province, while 65% would have to leave the Northern Cape. The equivalent figure for Indian or Asian people in KwaZulu-Natal is nearly 70% who would have to migrate out of that province.

Drastic out-migration figures in excess of 20% (one in every five people) are also evident for the economically active white population of Gauteng and the Western Cape, as well as for the black African population of Limpopo and the Coloured population of the Eastern Cape.

Table 7 - Percentage of the total economically active population who would have to migrate

Table 7 shows that of the four population groups, the largest number of migrators (about 1,3 million) would actually be black African people. As a proportion of the total number of economically active black African people (15,4 million), the 1,3 million is actually quite low, only 9%. The 1,3 million economically active Coloured people who would have to migrate to other provinces constitute about 60% of the total number of economically active Coloured population of South Africa. Simply put: More than half of all the Coloured people in South Africa would have to uproot their lives and settle in other provinces in order to remain in the labour market.

Drastic figures of 40% and 24% are also evident for the Indian/Asian and white economically active populations, respectively.

It is very important to note that these massive migrations would not do anything to solve the actual problem in the South African labour market, which is high unemployment. If these migrations were to take place, the same number of people who were previously unemployed would still be unemployed.

Apart from disrupting the lives of millions of South Africans for the sake of chasing meaningless numbers, the social engineering project described here would therefore not even add any value to the South African labour market.

Footnote:

[1] The economically active population consists of those people that Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) classifies as being either in employment or being unemployed according to the narrow (official) definition. The EAP therefore does not only refer to people who have jobs, but also to unemployed people who are actively looking for jobs. These are the people that employers can reasonably be expected to recruit employees from.

Issued by Solidarity, February 18 2015

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