The Johannesburg coalition government that was formed in the aftermath of the 2021 local government elections is arguably the most prominent available litmus test for whether a national opposition coalition might one-day displace the ruling ANC.
The Johannesburg coalition was formed as a partnership between the Democratic Alliance (DA), Action South Africa (ASA), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the Congress of the People (COPE), the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), the United Independent Movement (UIM) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
At the end of September of 2022 that partnership fragmented amidst much inter-party acrimony (although to some extent this has been repaired).
Following this the Social Research Foundation (SRF) polled 600 Johannesburg opposition voters between October and November of 2022 to test their perceptions of coalition politics in general and the coalition that had up to that point governed in Johannesburg in particular.
Despite the fragmentation of the Johannesburg coalition opposition voters remained very keen on the idea of coalitions as the future of politics in South Africa.
When asked which statement they agree with: ‘Coalitions are the future of politics in South Africa, and parties must learn to take part in them constructively and make them work if our democracy is to succeed’ or ‘Coalitions are destructive and don’t work in South Africa, and a party should stick to its own and not take part in coalitions’, almost 70% of opposition voters agreed with the first statement.
A desire for pressing ahead with coalition politics was further reflected in voters’ wish to see opposition parties band together. Johannesburg’s opposition voters were asked if they thought it was a “good or bad idea for opposition parties like DA, ActionSA, COPE, the IFP, the Patriotic Alliance, the UDM and the FF+ to join together and form a grand coalition”, and nearly 75% thought that was a good idea.
Across all racial groups, party affiliations, and types of residences (whether voters lived in suburbs, townships, CDBs, or informal settlements) support for the idea of a grand coalition was universally strong.
However, a near 60% majority of those same voters reported that Johannesburg did not perform better for them, where they lived, under the leadership of the coalition compared to when it was governed by the ANC. There was some variance around that number with 50% of suburban voters sensing ‘no difference’, compared to 65% of voters in the CBD, 67% of voters in the townships, and 60% of voters in informal settlements.
When asked if they knew the reason for the fragmentation of the coalition just short of 60% of voters felt they did not understand why the Johannesburg coalition had collapsed. When asked which party they blamed the data was spread pretty evenly across the board.
When the flip side of that question was put to voters and they were asked which party gained the most from the fragmentation, just over 40% said the ANC, followed by the DA at 25%, and ASA at 13%.
The Foundation drew three tentative conclusions from the poll. The first was that support for a grand coalition of opposition parties to displace the ANC likely remains very strong and is a finding that can likely be extrapolated to a national level.
The second is that the coalition in Johannesburg underwhelmed its supporters in terms of on the ground delivery relative to the former track record of the ANC in that city. The third is that when opposition parties in a coalition partnership engage in inter-party acrimony, opposition voters tend to blame the partners in roughly equal measure.
Gabriel Makin is a graduate of Leiden University and an associate at the Social Research Foundation.
