FACT AND FICTION

An analysis of South Africa's performance in international surveys and development indicators

NOVEMBER 4 2010

Executive Summary

The ruling ANC has become characterized by its hostility towards openness and transparency. This extends from the current attempts to clamp down on media freedom, to the government's reluctance to release detailed statistics about key aspects of the country's performance. These are the hallmarks of a government in denial, whose policy failures have in many cases served to hamper development and whose fear of the truth threatens to prevent it from formulating effective solutions.

The ANC government's disdain for external appraisals of the country's progress was heightened under former President Thabo Mbeki. As a result, the national administration shunned the findings of international surveys and chose instead to produce its own assessments, for example, the Ten Year Review of the Presidency, which was more spin than statistics.

However, the ANC government has failed to produce the assessments that really matter, such as regular, comprehensive statistical information about key aspects of South Africa's development, for example, changes in levels of poverty. In fact, the government has, as yet, failed to reach consensus on an official measure of poverty. How does the ANC administration plan to effectively combat poverty, identified as one of its top priorities, if it is unable to measure the scale of the problem?

The serious shortage of national data on critical aspects of the country's development, such as poverty, has placed even greater importance on the information generated by international bodies in this regard. While it may be possible for the ANC government to challenge the findings of one or two international surveys, it cannot contest the findings of every indicator.

And the results of these external assessments are telling.

They build a picture of a country with considerable potential that has made notable strides in areas such as financial market performance, but which continues to fail to provide the most basic services to its people. The quality of education and health care under the ANC government is ranked as some of the worst in the world.

This points to a massive policy failing by the ruling party.

Instead of using this data constructively to reassess its priorities and transform its ability to deliver, the ANC has chosen denial. The DA seeks to highlight the extent of the ANC's denialism by contrasting South Africa's performance in a range of international comparative studies with the picture presented by the ruling party.

The Presidency, whose core responsibility is the implementation and achievement of the government's strategic agenda, should be leading the charge in seeking a more detailed understanding of our nation's problems and ensuring the development of effective solutions. However, President Jacob Zuma's political position, compromised by the complex web of conflicting promises he made to win power, has rendered him an indecisive, ineffective leader.

The ANC government's continued denial of its policy failures in key areas such as health, education and combating corruption is undermining both South Africa's development and its citizens' chance of a better life.

The purpose of this analysis is not to dwell on problems, but to emphasize that they cannot be resolved without first being understood.  As a party concerned with solutions, the DA seeks to use international assessments to better understand the problems our country faces and map a successful way forward.

Introduction

The African National Congress (ANC) government continues to present a favourable picture of South Africa's progress in key areas such as human and economic development, safety and security, and education.

This document serves as an update to the study released by the Democratic Alliance (DA) in 2009, which assessed South Africa's performance in a range of international comparative studies and local surveys, in order to contrast it with the view presented by the ruling party and evaluate the accuracy of the picture presented to us.

The following analysis was conducted using the latest figures available for each of these studies or surveys. Some of the studies, indices and surveys assessed in this document include:

The Human Development Index (HDI), where South Africa slipped down three places from the rank it had stagnated at for two years

The Economic Freedom of the World Index (EFWI) where South Africa has steadily declined, having fallen 18 places between 2001 and 2007

Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) / Education Ranking by Country which names South Africa as number one in the Least Performing Country category with regards to average maths and science scores

In addition, given the recent focus on the state of media freedom in South Africa, figures from surveys relevant to this topic have also been included. These surveys are Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index and the Freedom House Freedom of the Press Index.

Finally, Newsweek's The World's Best Countries study, which ranks the world's nations according to education, health, quality of life, economic dynamism and political environment, has also been included to incorporate an additional international perspective into our analysis.

1. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

The purpose of human development, as characterized by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), encompasses far more areas than merely the rise or fall of national incomes. The objective of development is, by promoting access to key resources, to create an enabling environment for people to enjoy long, healthy and productive lives.

These resources include:

• Improved access to knowledge
• Better nutrition and health services
• More secure livelihoods
• Security against crime and physical violence
• Satisfying leisure hours
• Political and cultural freedoms
• Sense of participation in communities

In his address on the Presidency Budget Vote on the 12^th of May 2010, President Zuma stated that:

Honourable Speaker, during my inauguration on the 9th of May last year, we said that we would not rest for as long as there were people who had no water, children with no access to education, women who were abused, workers who struggled to feed their families, and people who died from preventable diseases.

We also said that there would be no place for complacency, cynicism, excuses or laziness as we went about improving service delivery.

We are pleased that in this first year in office, we have achieved most of the            goals that we set for ourselves.

There is visible progress in our identified priorities, such as health, poverty eradication, job creation, quality education, rural development and the fight against crime and corruption.

More resources and energy have been channeled towards prevention and treatment of preventable diseases and the revitalisation of the public healthcare system.

We have launched massive campaigns on HIV, TB and measles. The roll out of new HIV treatment and prevention measures as well as the massive testing campaign that is under way, will make a difference in the fight against the disease.

We applaud the wonderful work of the South African National Aids Council in fighting the epidemic, under the leadership of the Honourable Deputy President.

The revitalisation of the country's education system is also progressing well. The departments of Basic as well as Higher Education and Training have directed attention on improving performance in schools and the training of a skilled workforce.

The widening of the social security net to cover needy children up to the age of 18 forms an integral part of government's contribution to the fight against poverty. It is yet another investment in our children and the youth.

All this work demonstrates that we are investing in a prosperous and sustainable future.[1]

In contrast to the President's more optimistic assertions, the figures presented by the Human Development Index (HDI) offer a more sobering picture of South Africa's state of development, particularly with regard to education, the provision of basic services and the eradication of poverty.

1.1  Human Development Index

The Human Development Index is released annually by the United Nations (UN) as part of its Human Development Report. It is a composite statistic index used to rank countries by level of human development by measuring average achievement according to three core criteria: a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living. This is achieved by calibrating a wide range of variables such as life expectancy at birth, adult literacy, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrollment ratio.

The bigger a country's score, the lower its level of human development. From stagnating at a position of 121 out 177 during 2006-2008, South Africa continues to slip down the rankings. Contributing factors include the country's crime rate, levels of poverty and the prevalence of HIV.

HDI Rankings for 2006-2009[2]

2. ECONOMIC GROWTH

The term "economic growth" refers to a sustained increase in a country's output of goods and services. The rate of economic growth is influenced by the availability of various resources (natural, human and capital resources), technological development in the economy and institutional structure and stability.

Crucial facilitators of economic growth are economic freedom and competitiveness. They not only liberate citizens from dependence on government, and allow them to make their own economic and political choices, but also assess the ability of countries to provide high levels of prosperity to their citizens.

In his June 2009 State of the Nation Address, President Jacob Zuma said:

We will make a commitment that working together we will speed up economic growth and transform the economy to create decent work and sustainable livelihoods.

We will introduce a massive programme to build economic and social infrastructure. We will develop and implement a comprehensive rural development strategy linked to land and agrarian reform and food security.[3]

While South Africa has performed impressively in surveys assessing some aspects of our economy, the country's scores in indices measuring economic freedom and competitiveness have failed to be as high.

2.1 Economic Freedom of the World Index

The Economic Freedom of the World Index, compiled by the Economic Freedom Network, measures the degree of economic freedom in respective countries according to how close they come to meeting the following ideals:

• Allowing personal choice rather than collective choice
• Voluntary exchange coordinated by markets rather than allocation via the political process
• Freedom to enter and compete in markets
• Protection of persons and their property from aggression by others

In practice, the index itself measures:

• Size of Government: Expenditures, Taxes, and Enterprises
• Legal Structure and Security of Property Rights
• Access to Sound Money
• Freedom to Trade Internationally
• Regulation of Credit, Labour, and Business

South Africa's steady decline in the index's rankings is illustrated by comparing its yearly score between 2001 and 2008. The closer a country's rank is to 141, the worse its level of economic freedom.

The few nominal improvements in the country's rankings are overshadowed by its predominantly downward slide. Increases in the size of the ANC administration, the extent of government spending and the way in which this threatens to crowd out private investment and the country's strict labour regulations- which have been strongly influenced by the presence of COSATU in the ruling alliance- have all been contributing factors.

2.2 Global Competitiveness Index

The Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) is published annually by the World Economic Forum as part of their Global Competitiveness Report.

The GCI measures a range of factors, grouped into twelve broad categories, that are vital for driving productivity and competitiveness:

• Institutions
• Infrastructure
•  Macro-economic stability
• Health and primary education
• Higher education and training
• Goods market efficiency
• Labour market efficiency
• Financial market sophistication
• Technological readiness
• Market size
• Business sophistication
• Innovation

The 2010-2011 report[4] gives South Africa's global competitiveness rank for the years 2008-2010. The smaller a country's score, the greater its degree of competitiveness.

South Africa's rankings in key subcategories of the index indicate that the country is failing to turn its great potential into positive outcomes for economic development and poverty alleviation. This report makes it quite clear, for instance, that South Africa's Financial Market development is near the best in the world; testimony to the reinforcing measures taken before the global recession set in.
Financial Market indications are as follows:

Economic strength, however, serves little point if that strength cannot be translated into outcomes that improve the lives of all South Africans. Here, however, the index's health and primary education rankings demonstrate just how short South Africa is falling:

As Africa's strongest economy, South Africa should not be ranking in the very bottom places in terms of social deliverables. We have both more resources and a stronger financial structure with which to protect them, as these figures demonstrate.

However, key policy decisions taken by the ANC government, for example its approach to the labour market, have hindered the country's ability to develop to its full economic potential. In a globalising world, the figures provided on labour market flexibility demonstrate precisely why South Africa is unable to compete for investment, and therefore create jobs and address poverty, at a rate that can have a meaningful impact on our socioeconomic challenges. The index's figures for South Africa's labour market efficiency are as follows:

These low rankings reflect the straitjacket in which the labour market has been placed by the ANC national government. It shall certainly not be aided by the saga that has played out between the ANC national government and the unions in this year's public service strike, which will no doubt show up in next year's GCR.

There are also a number of other indicators that are cause for concern. These include the innovation category, where South Africa ranks 116th in "availability of scientists and engineers". 

3. SAFETY AND SECURITY

A safe and secure environment, as classified by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), is one in which its population has the freedom to conduct their daily lives without fear of politically motivated, persistent, or large-scale violence. Such an environment is also characterized by an "end of large-scale fighting, an adequate level of public order, the insubordination of accountable security forces to legitimate state authority, the protection of key individuals, communities, sites, and infrastructure, and the freedom for people and goods to move about the country and across borders without fear of undue harm to life and limb." [5]

In his June 2009 State of the Nation Address, President Zuma announced that;

Working together with all South Africans, we will intensify the fight against crime and corruption. We will build cohesive, caring and sustainable communities.

Together we must do more to fight crime. Our aim is to establish a transformed, integrated, modernized, properly-resourced and well-managed criminal justice system.

It is also critically important to improve the efficiency of the courts and the performance of prosecutors and to enhance detective, forensic and intelligence services. This work has started in earnest, and it will be undertaken with new energy and vigour.

We changed the name of the relevant Ministry from Safety and Security to Police to emphasise that we want real operational energy in police work. This will contribute to the reduction of serious and violent crimes by the set target of 7% to 10% per annum.

The most serious attention will also be given to combating organized crime, as well as crimes against women and children.[6]

Despite the President's assurances, South Africa continues to battle unacceptably high levels of violence and crime. While this year's national crime statistics did attest to incremental improvements across the board, with SAPS making important strides, especially in contact crimes, South Africa's ranking in international crime indices continues to illustrate the severity of the country's crime problem. 

3.1 The Global Peace Index

The Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks countries according to their peacefulness and was presented for the first time in 2007, is hailed as the first study of its kind.

The GPI's main findings are that:

• Peace is correlated to indicators such as income, schooling and the level of regional integration
• Peaceful countries often share high levels of government transparency and low levels of corruption
• Small, stable countries which are part of regional blocks are most likely to get a better ranking

Countries are therefore ranked by their ‘absence of violence,' and as such, nations considered more peaceful have lower index scores.[7]

After three years of decline, South Africa's rank has improved in the last year.  The successful hosting and drop in crime over the Fifa World Cup may well allow for an even lower rating next year. However, the extent of poverty in South Africa, the state of the country's education system, weaknesses in the Zuma administration's anti-crime strategy, high levels of government corruption and a growing disdain for transparency will all pose significant challenges to the achievement of this goal.  

3.2 Transparency International

Transparency International is an international non-governmental organization committed to fighting corruption and raising public awareness about its prevalence at an international level.

This NGO releases its Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) annually, which comprises a comparative listing of corruption worldwide. Transparency International also regularly releases its Global Corruption Barometer (GCB). This survey assesses perceptions about, and experiences of, corruption within the public and private sectors.

3.3.1. Corruption Perceptions Index Rankings - Worldwide Corruption Perceptions Ranking

Each country's score represents the perceived levels of national corruption in the eyes of business people and country analysts. Scores range between 10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt).

South Africa's scores, from the period 2002-2009, show only minor changes in the public's corruption perception. [8]

In its 2009 Index, South Africa occupied the 55^th place out of 180 countries. The table below shows South Africa's rankings for the years 2004-2009

Clearly there has been little improvement in our rankings over the last six years, as South Africa fails to rank amongst the top 35% of countries with the lowest perceived corruption perception.

3.3.2. Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer

Here scores are assigned to countries by asking various national and international sample groups to measure the extent to which they perceive the public and private sectors of a country or territory to be affected by corruption. The Barometer also further explores how corruption affects the lives of ordinary people, for example, their day-to-day experiences with bribery.

Since there is no 2008 Global Corruption Barometer, and because South Africa is only mentioned generically in the 2009 Barometer, the 2007 Barometer has been used for the purpose of this analysis.

The key findings in the 2007 report are that:

• The poor, whether in developed or highly industrialized countries, are the most affected by corruption and its effects- they are also more pessimistic about future decreases in corruption.
• Bribery is particularly widespread in interactions with the police and within the judiciary-, registry- and permit services.
• The general public believe political parties, Parliament, the police and judicial/legal system are the most corrupt institutions in their societies.
• Half of those interviewed believe their government's efforts to fight corruption are ineffective.

Although South Africa has a lower corruption ranking than other African countries, such as Cameroon or Nigeria, the country is still ranked in the fourth quintile of countries most affected by bribery, with 2-6% of respondents reporting they paid a bribe to obtain a service. 

South Africa's ranking is a testament to the effects of corruption on the average citizen's life.

An evaluation of the extent to which the public believes public institutions are corrupt (1= not at all, and 5= extremely corrupt). The figures listed are compared to the updated 2006 figures of our previous analysis.[9]

Although South Africa's figures exhibit only minor changes, the averages themselves are still fairly high, occupying mid to high 3s and receiving two 4.0 global sample averages.

Future perceptions of corruption are even more disturbing.  Only 26% of South African respondents believe that corruption will decrease within the next three years, 7% feel it will remain the same, and an overwhelming 64% believe it will increase.

4. EDUCATION

South Africa's vision for education, according to the Department of Education, is ‘one in which all of its citizens have access to life-long education and training opportunities, which in turn will contribute towards improving the quality of life, building a peaceful, prosperous and democratic society.' [10]

In his June 2009 State of the Nation Address, President Zuma proclaimed that;

Education will be a key priority for the next five years. We want our teachers, learners and parents to work with government to turn our schools into thriving centres of excellence.

The Early Childhood Development programme will be stepped up, with the aim of ensuring universal access to Grade R and doubling the number of 0-4 year old children by 2014.[11]

However, the government's education policy still fails to bear fruit. This situation is most evident when one considers the results of the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS).

4.1 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) / Education Rankings By Country

TIMSS was first conducted in 1995 as an assessment study of mathematics and science performance with the inclusion of learner, teacher and school questionnaires. The study is released every four years and compares the mathematics and science achievements of students from across the world.

South African schools have twice been ranked last out of all the African countries that participated in the TIMSS study. Instead of using this information constructively to address performance issues, the Education Department opted not to participate in the study in 2007. Former Education Minister, Naledi Pandor, justified South Africa's withdrawal from the study on the grounds that she did not want learners to be "over-tested" - a ludicrous assertion given that pupils are not meant to prepare for the tests. In addition, the tests were intended to act as a benchmark, and offered an important opportunity to compare the progress of South African learners with global norms.

Despite South Africa's absence from the 2007 TIMSS study, one can still use the information collected on South Africa's performance in previous years' studies to obtain a broad overview of our progress. The graphs on the following pages relate to data captured by TIMSS studies between 1995-2007 and rank countries according to their pupils' average maths and science scores.

5. FREEDOM OF THE PRESS

Freedom House, has, since 1980, been at the forefront in monitoring threats to media independence. It is committed to the notion that a free press plays an integral role in maintaining and monitoring a healthy democracy, contributes to good governance and ensures greater accountability.

Most notably, it asserts that restrictions on the media are often an early warning sign that governments intend to assault other democratic institutions.

President Jacob Zuma, in his 2009 inaugural address declared that;

We seek a vibrant, dynamic partnership that is enriched by democratic debate that values diverse views and accommodates dissent.

Therefore, we need to make real the fundamental right of all South Africans to freely express themselves, to protest, to organise, and to practice their faith.

We must defend the freedom of the media, as we seek to promote within it a greater diversity of voices and perspectives.[13]

President Zuma's sentiments on press freedom seem to have shifted dramatically since the beginning of his tenure. The dual threat to media freedom posed by the Protection of Information Bill and the proposed Media Appeals Tribunal (MAT), which has gained momentum since he came to office, constitutes the most serious attack on press freedom since the transition to democracy.

Freedom of the Press Index

The Freedom of the Press Index (FPI), annually released by Freedom House, is a survey of media independence in 195 countries and territories. The index itself contains the most comprehensive data sets available on global media freedom, providing numerical rankings and rates, of which the combined total score classifies each country's media as either Free (0-30), Partly Free (31-60) or Not Free (61-100).[14]

The 2010 Freedom of the Press Index scores reveal a slow but steady decline in South Africa's level of press freedom. According to Freedom House, this is due to an "increase in official rhetoric against independent or critical voices in recent years, as well as an increase of legal threats to the print media and a lack of independence at the dominant state-run broadcaster, pushing South Africa into the Partly Free category"[15].

When considering these criteria and our future rankings, one should remember that the Protection of Information Bill was tabled in July, two months after the release of this survey. If adopted, the effect of the Bill will be to dramatically increase the measure of political interference in the country's free media, thereby causing our ranking to decline even further.

This survey is a real world measurement of the extent of political interference in freedom of expression and freedom of speech that has consequences not only for how we as individuals engage with one another as a society but also how our society evaluates itself.

While these criteria have been used to assess the impact on journalists, we should not neglect the crucial issue of academic freedom and the impact upon it of the bill. Further attacks on press freedom would result in a restriction on academics, those who are supposed to be able to interrogate all aspects of our society with full access, within reason, to state information sources. For decades, critical social information that could have assisted us as a society, including full and accurate health and economic statistics, was restricted due to government control. Allowing this to happen again will have serious implications for every aspect of the country's development.

6. THE WORLD'S BEST COUNTRIES STUDY

This year Newsweek released its first ever World's Best Countries report- a comprehensive study of health, education, economics and politics, which ranked the globe's top nations using an extensive range of internationally renowned and academically recognized reports, studies and surveys. [16]

Countries were ranked from 1 (best) to 100 (worst).

SOUTH AFRICA WAS RANKED OVERALL AS 82^nd OUT OF 100 COUNTRIES

In the same way as the GCI rankings, these results illustrate the tension between, on the one hand, the country's strong economic attributes, and, on the other, the lack of comparable improvement in key social development indicators such as education and health.

CONCLUSION

These indicators offer important insights into both the level of the country's political, economic and social development and the discrepancies between the extent of the country's development and the picture painted by the ruling ANC.

Despite some notable successes, particularly with regard to assessments of the country's financial markets, South Africa's performance in terms of the most basic social development indicators is still dire. Education, the provision of basic healthcare, government corruption, crime and the economic impact of labour market regulation are some of the most problematic areas.

The country's failure to match certain economic successes with improvements in these sectors is deeply troubling. It points to a massive policy failure on the part of the ANC national government.

The ruling ANC has become characterized by its hostility towards openness and transparency. These are the hallmarks of a government in denial. If South Africa is to change its fortunes, it needs to change its government.  It needs to seek out leaders who, instead of denying problems and continuing with failed policies, embrace the truth as the first step in developing meaningful solutions.

Issued by the Democratic Alliance, November 4 2010

Click here to sign up to receive our free daily headline email newsletter

FOOTNOTES:

[1] http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/pebble.asp?relid=292

[2] http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf

   http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf

[3] http://www.info.gov.za/speeches/2009/09060310551001.htm

[4] http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010-11.pdf

[5] http://www.usip.org/guiding-principles-stabilization-and-reconstruction-the-web-version/safe-and-secure-environment

[6] http://www.info.gov.za/speeches/2009/09060310551001.htm

[7] http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/PDF/2010/2010%20GPI%20Results%20Report.pdf

   http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/PDF/2009/2009%20GPI%20Results%20Report.pdf

   http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/PDF/2008/2008%20GPi%20Results%20Report.pdf

   http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/PDF/2007/2007%20%20%20%20Results%20Report.pdf

[8] http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2009/cpi_2009_table

     http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/2008/cpi2008/cpi_2008_table

     http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2007\

     http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/2006/cpi_2006/cpi_table

     http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/2005/cpi_2005#cpi

     http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2004

[9] http://www.transparency.org/content/download/12169/115654/file/Global_Corruption_Barometer_2006_Report.pdf

     http://www.transparency.org/content/download/27256/410704/file/GCB_2007_report_en_02-12-2007.pdf

[10] http://www.education.gov.za/about_doe/vision.asp

[11] http://www.info.gov.za/speeches/2009/09060310551001.htm

[12] http://www.realonlinedegrees.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/ROD-EDUCATION-RATES.png

[13] http://www.thepresidency.gov.za/show.asp?type=sp&include=president/sp/2009/sp05091029.htm&ID=1923

[14] http://freedomhouse.org/images/File/South%20Africa%20FOTP%202010%20draft%20KDK%20re-edited.pdf

[15] http://freedomhouse.org/images/File/fop/2010/OverviewEssayFOTP2010finallaid-out.pdf

[16] http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/15/interactive-infographic-of-the-worlds-best-countries.html