Once President Thabo Mbeki decided to pursue a third term in power the burden of proof fell on him, and his supporters, to show that this would not constitute a threat to South Africa's democracy. For, as Aristotle observed in Politics, "it is not easy for a person to do any great harm when his tenure of office is short, whereas long possession begets tyranny in oligarchies and democracies."

There was always a strategy open to him which would have undercut his critics, and allayed broader concerns. This was to contrast the moderation and seriousness of his administration, with the unpredictable populism of the Zuma camp. He needed to win back the support of the media, and secure the backing of business.

Yet it seems that some time back ago the Mbeki-ites decided upon a very different approach; and they have set about securing the succession by wielding the instruments of power in an often arbitrary and capricious manner.

In early August the deputy minister of health, Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, was sacked; despite her evident popularity and her success in turning around public perceptions of the government's AIDS policy. In mid-September, ANC headquarters intervened in parliament and ordered the party's MPs to accept its list for the new SABC board which included Christine Qunta. Then, at the end of September, Vusi Pikoli was suspended as National Director of Public Prosecutions after a warrant of arrest was issued against police chief, Jackie Selebi.

Now, it emerges, the state apparatus is being deployed against the most powerful newspaper in the country. The Sunday Times reported this week that its editor, Mondli Makhanya, and one of its journalists, Jocelyn Maker, were facing imminent arrest on charges of illegally accessing Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang's hospital records. This follows its publication of (non-medical) details of those records in an article on the minister's questionable conduct during her stay in a hospital in Cape Town in 2005.

This alleged infringement of the law has provided the justification those in power have long been thirsting for to direct the resources of the state against that newspaper. The Sunday Times also claims that a senior Western Cape detective was put onto the case by "Pretoria" and told to give it top priority. According to its sources, the cellphones of Makhanya and Maker were being tapped and "operatives around the country were trying to dig up ‘dirt' on the editor and the journalists involved in the story."

This investigation fits into a disturbing pattern. Members of the president's coterie enjoy impunity; no matter how egregious their abuse of office or corruption. However, if someone is opposed to, or falls out with, the president any possible offence (no matter how minor) will be vigorously pursued and punished. The investigation into the Sunday Times is - to use the words of a famous US supreme court judgment - yet another example of the law being applied against opponents of Mbeki with an "evil eye and an unequal hand." Such selective prosecution is an anathema to the rule of law, and it is deeply corrosive of the legitimacy of state power.

These crude power plays may (or may not) secure an extension of Mbeki's tenure in office. But they have shattered any reasoned case that could have been made for a third term. (One of Mbeki's more endearing features is that his actions tend to make his apologists look like prize turnips.) Moreover, business is keeping very silent, and the press is in uproar.

In the Sunday Times Justice Malala wrote, "Only 13 years into our democracy, Mbeki's Stalinist learnings are fully on show." While Xolela Mangcu accused Mbeki in Business Day of single-handedly taking "this country to its most perilous moment. He has become a god unto himself, accountable to no one but himself. He fires, suspends and punishes those who stand in his way."

There are other consequences that will follow on from this all. The abuse of state power is not a taxi that can simply be stopped at a point of Mbeki's choosing. For one thing, it makes it progressively harder for the Mbeki-ites to ever willingly surrender power. For another, we seem to moving from a society governed by consent, to one ruled through coercion.

The question is: why did Mbeki choose this approach over other more democratic alternatives? It is possible that he had no alternative; power was slipping away, and he simply had to try and grasp at it. But perhaps he was just unwilling to maintain the pretence any longer. As Agatha Christie wrote, "As life goes on it becomes tiring to keep up the character you invented for yourself, and so you relapse into individuality and become more like yourself every day. This is sometimes disconcerting for those around you, but a great relief to the person concerned."