Most young South Africans feel the ANC decision to suspend Julius Malema for 5 years is justified
Following yesterday's decision by the ANC's National Disciplinary Committee to suspend Julius Malema for five years, TNS South Africa, in conjunction with FSMS conducted a short mobile survey yesterday and today amongst FSMS's 300 000 registered users. In 16 hours, 601 responses were received.
The survey, which skews towards younger people, showed that 70% of people felt that the sentence was justified:
1. Some people feel that the ANC's Disciplinary Committee has been too harsh on Julius Malema but others feel it is justified. How about you?
a. Too harsh - 30%
b. Justified - 70%
The figure of 70% drops to 66% for those aged under 24 years and rises to 85% for those aged 31 years and over. There are no gender differences. Amongst people whose home language is English or Afrikaans, 88% felt that the sentence was justified. Amongst all the other language groups, this figure dropped to 66%. Amongst those for whom their home Sepedi is their home language, this fell to a low of 43% with 57% feeling that it is too harsh.
A second question, which has been used by TNS in previous surveys of metro adults was posed:
2. Overall do you support what Julius Malema says and does or not?
a. Support - 29%
b. Do not support - 71%
The figure of 29% contrasts with the 25% noted in a study conducted in early September (filtered on the same age groups), suggesting that the current FSMS study is comparable indeed with the previous larger September study (run using face-to-face interviews in people's homes). Hence, we can deduce that the figure of 70% noted for the first question above is probably lower than for a full study that was not skewed towards younger people. Further, the figure for the black language groups in this study (35%) is exactly the same as that found in the September study when looking at younger people.
A third question was also posed:
3. Do you feel that Julius Malema should form his own party or should he stay with the ANC?
a. Form new party - 33%
b. Stay with the ANC - 67%
Hence, it appears that most people surveyed feel Julius Malema should sit out his sentence and remain within ANC structures. Amongst people whose home language is English or Afrikaans, 47% felt that he should form a new party. Amongst all the other language groups, this figure dropped to 30%.
Our take out
Even amongst younger people, the vast majority feel that Julius Malema's sentence is justified - this figure would be even higher if one looks at a more representative age profile. Only Sepedi speakers disagree.
Most people also feel he should remain within the ANC - effectively, he should serve out his sentence and the rejoin the active ranks of the ANC
Technical note
The study was conducted amongst a sample of 600 people aged 16 and older (461 blacks and 112 people of other race groups) via mobile phone self-completion interviews in South Africa. The universe for the study consisted of over 300,000 mobile phone users who make use of the FSMS service. The sample achieved consisted of a broad spread of demographics across race, gender, age and area, but skewed towards 19 to 30 year olds and is thus more representative of the opinions of South African youth. The study was conducted by TNS South Africa in conjunction with FSMS as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and was funded jointly by TNS and FSMS.
Statement issued by Neil Higgs, Senior Advisor and Head of innovation, TNS South Africa, November 11 2011
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