Introducing the SRF's tracking poll going into election 2024

Gareth van Onselen says the great question is how far the ANC will be able to track up from 40% base

Thread on the SRF’s 2024 election track (which is all public on the SRF website and is updated every week day: https://srfreports.co.za). The track covers: national support, GT, KZN and the WC (provincial ballot). It will run until election day. 1/10

First, the methodology, below. In layman’s terms, the poll updates a base sample every day with a new batch of respondents, oldest batch drops out, and indicators for the new combined sample tracked each day. So, the base sample stays attuned to current affairs. 2/10

Only going to talk about national support here (provinces on website) and only the two most relevant turnout models: 60% and 56%, for the 5 biggest parties - they probably the closest to where turnout will end up (was 66% in 2019 and will likely drop again this election). 3/10

Let’s start with the 60% model, below. The track has been running for a week, and it is best to analyse trends on a weekly basis. So let us look at the first week. The blurs around each line represent the margin of error: around 2% for the national track. 4/10

In a nutshell: bad week for the DA, tracking down. Good week for the ANC, tracking up. MK is relatively stable but has dropped a bit of support in last few days. EFF, also stable, but starting to suggest it too is tracking up. IFP more or less stable at around 6%. 5/10

The same trends are true for the 56% model, below. These trends are more or less to be expected and will likely play out until the election. The ANC tends to track up as the election gets closer, and its election machinery gets into gear. The DA tracks down a bit. 6/10

The great unknown is at what point these parties will reach a plateau and start to level out. The ANC will obviously want to keep pushing up. It is at 40% now on the 56% model and will want to get to 45% over next few weeks, which will make its life much easier. 7/10

The DA will want to hold on to as much support as it can. It has some growth in the bank, and its primary fight will be to keep as much of it as it can, as the ANC squeezes parties up until the election. Its goal will be 23/24 and some demonstrable growth from 2019. 8/10

MK seems to have reached its peak, around 13-15, and like the DA its goal will be to hold onto that, and push its support closer to 15 than 10. The EFF, which struggles on lower turnout (its base support is 12.4%), will have to get voters to the polls, to ensure some growth. 9/10

I’ll tweet some more on this down the line, maybe the provinces too if I have time but, as I say, you can follow all this on the SRF website if you are interested. 10/10

Source: X